The Timberwolves host the Warriors at Target Center on Monday, January 26, at 9:30 PM ET.
The Timberwolves come in at 27-19 (No. 7 seed) and 15-8 at home, while the Warriors are 26-21 (No. 8 seed) and 9-14 on the road.
These teams literally just saw each other. The Warriors beat the Timberwolves 111-85 on Sunday, turning the game into a turnover and transition clinic, and snapping their skid since Jimmy Butler’s season-ending injury.
The season series is 1-0 Warriors, and now the Timberwolves get the immediate “run it back” chance on their floor.
For the Timberwolves, Anthony Edwards has been the headliner all season at 29.7 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.6 assists while shooting 49.9% from the field and 41.0% from three. Julius Randle has added 22.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.5 assists.
For the Warriors, Stephen Curry is still driving everything at 27.3 points and 5.0 assists per game on 46.8% shooting, and Draymond Green’s connective play remains vital at 8.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 5.2 assists.
The hook is simple. The Warriors just embarrassed them with pressure, pace, and chaos, now the Timberwolves have to prove they can handle the ball, control the glass, and play to their offensive numbers instead of the Warriors’ game.
Injury Report
Timberwolves
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Out (left foot abductor hallucis strain)
Warriors
Jimmy Butler III: Out for season (torn right ACL)
Seth Curry: Out (sciatic nerve-related injury)
Jonathan Kuminga: Out (left knee bone bruise)
Why The Timberwolves Have The Advantage
The numbers say the Timberwolves should win an “average” game if they simply play like themselves. They’re at 119.2 points per game on 48.2% from the field and 37.1% from three, which is real offense, not smoke and mirrors. The Warriors can pressure you, but they also allow 113.5 points per game, so if the Timberwolves just take care of the ball, the scoring will be there.
The other big swing is the glass and second chances. The Timberwolves are pulling 44.8 rebounds per game with 11.3 offensive rebounds, that’s the profile of a team that can survive cold stretches by extending possessions. If they can force the Warriors into half-court defense more often and keep the game from becoming a live-ball turnover track meet, their size and efficiency should show up.
And it’s still a home game for them. They’re 15-8 at home, and after Sunday’s mess, this is exactly the kind of spot where you usually see a sharper, more physical response from the opening tip.
Why The Warriors Have The Advantage
Sunday wasn’t a fluke style-wise, even if the margin was. The Warriors thrive when the game gets sped up and scrambled, and they’ve been a high-assist team all year at 28.8 assists per game, which matters even more when they’re missing a major isolation scorer like Butler.
The easiest path for the Warriors is turning the Timberwolves into a decision-making test. In the win, they forced 26 turnovers and generated a ridiculous amount of disruption, that’s how they can win even when the shot-making is just fine, not nuclear. If the Timberwolves get loose with the handle again, it won’t matter that they’re more efficient on paper.
Also, the Warriors have been the slightly better defensive team by the season-long points-allowed number, and in a rematch like this, that baseline matters. Warriors: 113.5 allowed. Timberwolves: 115.0 allowed. That’s not everything, but it fits the idea that the Warriors can win ugly if they have to.
X-Factors
Brandin Podziemski has quietly become one of the Warriors’ most important “glue” pieces. He’s at 12.2 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game while shooting 46.6% from the field and 39.0% from three, and in this matchup that combination is huge because the Timberwolves will try to load up on Curry. If Podziemski turns those tilted possessions into clean decisions, the Warriors can keep their offense stable even without Butler.
Moses Moody is the other swing guy for the Warriors. He’s averaging 10.9 points on 40.0% from three, and he just had a big night in the win. If he’s hitting early, the Timberwolves’ perimeter defense gets stretched, and that’s when Curry’s gravity turns into layups and corner threes for everyone else.
For the Timberwolves, Donte DiVincenzo is a major lever because he can punish pressure with quick decisions and quick shots. He’s at 13.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game, and the Warriors will absolutely dare the secondary creators to beat them if Edwards is seeing doubles. If DiVincenzo steadies the floor, the “turnover spiral” from Sunday becomes much harder to repeat.
Jaden McDaniels is the matchup chess piece. He’s giving the Timberwolves 14.8 points on 50.9% shooting and 42.1% from three, plus real defense every night. If he wins minutes with his length on the perimeter and doesn’t get dragged into foul trouble or rushed decisions, the Timberwolves can control the tone instead of reacting.
And keep an eye on Naz Reid’s scoring bursts. He’s at 14.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game, and he’s been a real spacing big, sitting around the high-30s from three on volume. If he pops, it forces the Warriors to choose between staying small for speed or going bigger and risking spacing issues.
Prediction
I’m betting on the Timberwolves responding like a team that’s tired of getting punked by pressure. Their offense is too efficient to look that disjointed twice in a row, and at home they should be better at controlling pace and valuing possessions.
Prediction: Timberwolves 118, Warriors 113
