The Celtics host the Hawks at TD Garden on Friday, March 27, at 7:30 p.m. ET.
The Celtics are 48-24 and second in the East, while the Hawks are 41-32 and fifth. The Celtics are 25-11 at home, and the Hawks are 20-16 on the road.
The Celtics beat the Thunder 119-109 on Wednesday. The Hawks are coming in after beating the Pistons 130-129 in overtime later that night.
The season series is tied 1-1. The Hawks won the first meeting 132-106, and the Celtics took the second 117-106.
Jayson Tatum is at 19.1 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 3.7 assists. Jaylen Brown is at 28.6 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.2 assists.
For the Hawks, Jalen Johnson is putting up 22.8 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 8.1 assists, while CJ McCollum has produced 18.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 3.8 assists.
This Celtics squad is trying to lock down the No. 2 seed, while the Hawks are pushing to stay out of the play-in range.
Injury Report
Celtics
Nikola Vucevic: Out (right ring finger fracture)
Jaylen Brown: Questionable (left calf tightness)
Neemias Queta: Questionable (right thumb sprain)
Derrick White: Questionable (right knee contusion)
Hawks
RayJ Dennis: Doubtful (G League two-way)
Keshon Gilbert: Doubtful (G League two-way)
Asa Newell: Doubtful (G League on assignment)
Why The Celtics Have The Advantage
The Celtics have the cleaner team profile. They are first in points allowed at 107.0 per game, fourth in defensive efficiency at 1.08 points allowed per possession, and fourth in defensive rating at 112.6. They are also third in offensive efficiency at 1.15 and fourth in net rating at +7.6. That is a real two-way base, and it matters here because the Hawks want to turn games into pace-and-flow offense.
The shot profile also leans toward the Celtics. They are third in three-point attempts at 42.3 per game, and even with the lower assist total than the Hawks, they still protect possessions well with only 12.3 turnovers per game. If they get this game into a half-court shooting contest, their spacing usually wins out.
Home court is part of it, too. The Celtics are 25-11 at home, and they just beat the Thunder in a high-level game that looked like a playoff test. That matters against a Hawks team playing very well, because the Celtics do not need to chase style points here. It just needs to defend, rebound, and make the Hawks score against a set defense.
Why The Hawks Have The Advantage
The Hawks bring more pace and more table-setting. They are scoring 118.4 points per game, handing out 30.4 assists per game, and playing at 105.6 possessions per game. That is a very different kind of pressure than most teams put on the Celtics. If the Hawks can keep the game moving and force them to defend early in the clock, they can get to their preferred rhythm.
They are also in real form right now. The Hawks have won 14 of their last 15 games, and they just beat the Pistons after surviving a big swing in the second half. Since the All-Star break, they are 15-2 with major gains in forcing turnovers and rebounding. That matters because this is not a mediocre team sneaking into a hot week. This is a team that has been consistently sharp for more than a month.
There is also a pressure point in the Celtics’ availability. Brown, White, and Queta are all questionable, and Vucevic is out. If this team loses creation or frontcourt stability late, the Hawks have enough ball movement and enough downhill threats to make that show up quickly.
X-Factors
Payton Pritchard is a major swing piece for the Celtics. He is at 16.6 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 5.2 assists. If White or Brown is limited at all, Pritchard’s shot creation and pull-up shooting become much bigger parts of the offense. The Celtics do not need him to dominate the ball, but they do need his scoring to keep the floor open.
Sam Hauser is another one. He has put up 8.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 1.4 assists while shooting 38.1% from three. This matchup could turn on weak-side spacing. If Hauser makes the Hawks pay for helping at the nail or loading up on Tatum and Brown, the offense gets much cleaner.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker has become a real X-Factor every night for the Hawks. He is at 20.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 3.7 assists while shooting 39.0% from three. If he keeps punishing closeouts and hitting catch-and-shoot threes, the Hawks can stretch the Celtics’ defense wider than most teams do.
Onyeka Okongwu matters because of the interior matchup. He is putting up 15.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 3.2 assists with 1.1 steals and 1.1 blocks. If he holds up on the glass and gives the Hawks extra possessions, the game gets much easier for their guards and wings.
Prediction
The Celtics are the better pick because the most stable indicators still point their way: first in points allowed, fourth in defensive efficiency, third in offensive efficiency, and a 25-11 home record. The Hawks are hot enough to make this uncomfortable, and their pace is real, but the Celtics have the cleaner defensive floor and the better setting for a game that should tighten late.
Prediction: Celtics 116, Hawks 111
