This one starts from the top of both conferences. The Thunder host the Knicks at Paycom Center on Sunday, March 29, at 7:30 p.m. ET.
The Thunder are 58-16 and first in the West. The Knicks are 48-26 and third in the East. The home and road splits are strong, too: the Thunder are 30-6 at home, while the Knicks are 20-17 away.
The recent results give the game a different feel for each side. The Thunder beat the Bulls 131-113 on Friday and are 13-1 in their last 14 games. The Knicks lost 114-103 to the Hornets on Thursday, which ended a seven-game winning streak.
The Thunder already took the first meeting 103-100 on March 4. Chet Holmgren had 28 points in that game, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 26 points and eight assists. For the Knicks, Karl-Anthony Towns finished with 17 points and 17 rebounds, and Jalen Brunson had 16 points and 15 assists.
Brunson is putting up 26.2 points and 6.7 assists this season, while Towns is at 20.1 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 2.8 assists.
Gilgeous-Alexander is at 31.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 6.6 assists, while Holmgren is producing 17.1 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks.
This is a serious test for both teams: the Thunder are trying to keep control of the top seed, and the Knicks are still chasing better playoff position in the East.
Injury Report
Thunder
Thomas Sorber: Out (right ACL surgical recovery)
Nikola Topic: Probable (G League on assignment)
Knicks
Ariel Hukporti: Out (G League on assignment)
Landry Shamet: Out (right knee tibial plateau contusion)
Dillon Jones: Out (G League two-way)
Miles McBride: Questionable (pelvic core muscle injury)
Why The Thunder Have The Advantage
The first edge is defense. The Thunder allow 107.7 points per game, best among the two teams in this matchup, with a 51.6% opponent effective field goal rate. The Knicks are very good defensively still, but the Thunder are better at making shots harder and turning defense into control.
The second edge is game pressure. The Thunder are 30-6 at home and have won eight straight in their building. They are also 58-16 overall and 21-7 against the East. That matters here because the Knicks are a good road team, but this is one of the hardest places in the league to win, especially against a team that usually does not beat itself.
The turnover battle leans to the Thunder. They sit at 11.0% turnovers per play on offense and 14.5% opponent turnovers per play on defense. The Knicks are solid in both areas, but the Thunder are sharper. In a game that should be close for most of the night, a few extra possessions can decide it.
There is also the star angle. Gilgeous-Alexander is the best scorer in this game, and he is doing it at elite efficiency. The Thunder do not need huge pace to score because he can break down a defense late in the clock, and Holmgren gives them rim pressure plus shot blocking on the other end. That combination is very hard to cover for 48 minutes.
Why The Knicks Have The Advantage
The Knicks have a real case because their full team profile is strong, not just good. They score 117.0 points per game, allow 110.5, with a 1.159 offensive efficiency, which is slightly better than the Thunder in this matchup. They also rebound better on the offensive glass, with a 29.5% offensive rebound rate. If this turns into a physical game with second chances, the Knicks can lean into that.
The Knicks also have enough scoring balance to make the Thunder guard more than one thing. Brunson controls the ball, but Towns changes the floor because he can score inside or pull a big defender away from the rim. OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, and Mikal Bridges also give the Knicks more two-way depth on the wing than most teams have. That is the kind of structure that can keep a road game close.
Another point is style. The Knicks do not need a wild game. They can play slower, crash the glass, and make this a half-court battle. The first meeting was exactly that kind of game, and it ended as a one-possession result. If the Knicks keep the score lower and do not let the Thunder run off turnovers, they have a better chance to drag this into the final minutes.
The last thing is simple. Brunson is one of the best late-game guards in the league. Even in the loss to the Hornets, he still had 26 points and 13 assists. So while the Thunder have the better overall profile, the Knicks have enough half-court shot creation to stay in a game that gets tight late.
X-Factors
Cason Wallace is a big x-factor for the Thunder. He just scored 21 against the Bulls while filling in for Holmgren, and for the season he has given the Thunder efficient guard minutes with defense, ball pressure, and enough shooting to stay on the floor in any lineup. If Wallace gives the Thunder another strong two-way game, the pressure on Gilgeous-Alexander gets lighter.
Isaiah Hartenstein is another key piece. He had 16 rebounds against the Bulls, and his season line includes strong board work and playmaking from the center spot. The Knicks are one of the better rebounding teams in the league, so Hartenstein’s job is clear. He has to survive the Towns matchup, finish possessions, and help the Thunder avoid giving up too many second chances.
OG Anunoby is the Knicks x-factor because he changes the defense first. He has been one of their best wing defenders all season, and his role in this game is obvious. He will spend time on Gilgeous-Alexander and also has to punish help on the other end. If he gives the Knicks real two-way impact, they can stay connected.
Miles McBride also belongs here if he returns. Before the injury, he was averaging 12.9 points and giving the Knicks another guard who could defend and shoot. The Knicks have missed that depth. If he is available and can handle real minutes, it gives them one more option against the Thunder’s guard pressure.
Prediction
The Thunder are the pick. The reasons are simple and strong: 58-16 overall, 30-6 at home, a better defensive profile, and the best player on the floor in Gilgeous-Alexander. The Knicks are good enough to make this close because they rebound, they defend, and Brunson can control the game late. But the Thunder have fewer weak points right now, and at home that usually shows.
Prediction: Thunder 116, Knicks 109
