The 2025-26 NBA season is almost here, and the Western Conference is shaping up to be a battlefield. With blockbuster trades, superstar comebacks, and young phenoms ready to take the next step, this year’s playoff race could be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory. The margin between a top-three seed and missing the playoffs entirely has never been thinner, and every game will matter.
While most predictions stick to safe territory, we’re taking a swing at five bold calls that could shock the league and reshape the playoff picture. From the Lakers reclaiming their spot atop the standings to Victor Wembanyama making history, here’s how the West could get turned upside down this season.
The Lakers Finish With The West’s Best Record
It’s been years since the Lakers ruled the regular season, but the 2025–26 campaign might be their time to reclaim the top spot in the West. With Luka Doncic entering his first full year in purple and gold, LeBron James still producing at an elite level at age 40, and Austin Reaves blossoming into a legitimate third option, Los Angeles has the star power to compete with anyone. Add in solid depth pieces like Rui Hachimura, Marcus Smart, and Deandre Ayton, and this roster is far more balanced than in recent seasons.
The biggest difference, however, could be Luka’s offseason transformation. After dropping 31 pounds, Doncic looks quicker, more explosive, and better prepared to handle the grind of an 82-game season. That, combined with LeBron’s leadership and the team’s improved perimeter defense, could help the Lakers not only dominate marquee matchups but also avoid the midseason slumps that have plagued them in the past. If they stay healthy, it’s not unrealistic to see this group lead the West wire-to-wire.
Victor Wembanyama Wins His First MVP
Victor Wembanyama made waves in his first two seasons, but 2025–26 could be the moment he takes the full leap from rising star to the NBA’s most valuable player. After averaging 24.3 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 3.8 blocks per game last year, the 7’4” Spurs phenom now has a stronger supporting cast and another summer of NBA experience under his belt. San Antonio added key veterans (like De’Aaron Fox) to complement his game, giving Wembanyama more spacing offensively and the freedom to focus on his dominance inside.
What sets Wemby apart from other MVP contenders is his ability to completely change games on both ends. He’s already the league’s most feared rim protector, and offensively, he can stretch the floor, attack off the dribble, and create mismatches at will. If the Spurs take a big step forward in the standings, which is a very real possibility in the wide-open West, Wembanyama’s combination of highlight-reel plays, elite production, and defensive impact could make him the clear-cut MVP choice.
Rockets Make The Western Conference Finals
The Houston Rockets have been steadily climbing the Western Conference ladder, and this season could be their true breakout. Led by Kevin Durant, Fred VanVleet, and Alperen Sengun, Houston now boasts a balance of veteran star power and young, dynamic talent. Last year’s playoff run ended earlier than they wanted, but the experience gave this young core a taste of what it takes to win in May and June.
The addition of Durant changes everything. His scoring efficiency, playoff pedigree, and ability to draw defensive attention will create open looks for the Rockets’ shooters and slashers, while Sengun’s unique playmaking at center keeps the offense unpredictable. Combine that with Houston’s improved perimeter defense and depth, and they have the tools to survive the gauntlet of the West. If they stay healthy, the Rockets have the upside to push all the way to the conference finals, a feat they haven’t achieved since the days of James Harden.
Grizzlies Return To Top-4 In The West
After a lost 2024-25 campaign derailed by key injuries, the Grizzlies are poised for a resurgence. A full season from Morant, paired with two-way standouts Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Ty Jerome, gives Memphis one of the best backcourts in the league, while Jaren Jackson Jr. anchors the frontcourt as an elite rim protector and floor-spacer.
The Grizzlies still have the toughness, depth, and swagger that made them a top threat just two years ago. If Morant stays on the floor and the roster avoids major injuries, Memphis has a clear path back into the West’s top four, and once in the playoffs, their physical, high-energy style will make them a nightmare matchup for any contender.
Oklahoma City Thunder Go Back-To-Back
Fresh off their first championship since moving to Oklahoma City, the Thunder enter 2025-26 with the same young, hungry core that took the league by storm last year. MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, rising star Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren form a trio that can dominate on both ends, while the front office’s depth-building has given coach Mark Daigneault a roster with no real weaknesses.
With their mix of elite shot creation, suffocating defense, and unselfish ball movement, OKC has the tools to repeat, something no team has done since the Warriors in 2017–18. As long as they stay healthy, the Thunder have every reason to believe they can navigate the West’s crowded field again and hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy for the second straight season.
Wild Western Conference
If there’s one takeaway from these bold predictions, it’s that the West is as unpredictable as it’s ever been. Between the Lakers chasing regular-season dominance, Victor Wembanyama’s Spurs making a serious playoff leap, the Rockets’ rise to contender status, the Grizzlies’ redemption tour, and the Thunder’s push for back-to-back titles, there’s no shortage of storylines to watch. Every night could swing playoff seeding, and the margin for error will be razor-thin. In a conference this stacked, surviving the regular season may be just as tough as winning four rounds in May and June.
