The Spurs are one win from the second round, and the Trail Blazers are one bad half from the end of their season. Game 5 is back at Frost Bank Center on Tuesday night, with the Spurs leading 3-1 after one of the strangest wins of the first round: a 114-93 Game 4 comeback after trailing by 19. Game 5 is set for Tuesday, April 28, at 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Stephon Castle has been the Spurs’ most consistent series scorer at 21.0 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 6.3 assists. Deni Avdija has carried the Trail Blazers at 22.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 5.0 assists. That is the main matchup now: Castle’s control and downhill pressure against Avdija’s shot creation and physical play.
Game 4 changed the series because Victor Wembanyama returned and immediately reset the floor. He finished with 27 points, 12 rebounds, four steals, and seven blocks, while De’Aaron Fox added 28 points and seven assists. The Trail Blazers led 58-41 at halftime, then lost the second half 73-35. That is not just a collapse. That is a team getting hit with size, pressure, and momentum at the same time.
Injury Report
Spurs
No players listed.
Trail Blazers
Damian Lillard: Out (left Achilles tendon injury management)
Why The Spurs Have The Advantage
The Spurs have the advantage because Game 4 gave them the exact defensive formula they needed. Wembanyama was not just a scorer. He changed the Trail Blazers’ rim math. The Trail Blazers shot only 19-of-37 in the paint, had 18 turnovers, and scored only 35 points after halftime. Scoot Henderson, who had been a major problem earlier in the series, went scoreless on 0-of-7 shooting.
The adjustment for Game 5 is about the start. The Spurs cannot keep spotting the Trail Blazers big early leads and relying on second-half explosions. They trailed by 17 at halftime in Game 4, and that is dangerous even at home. But the good sign is that the comeback came from repeatable things: Wembanyama protecting the rim, Fox getting into the paint, Castle attacking gaps, and the defense turning stops into control.
The Spurs also won the shot profile in Game 4. They shot 49.4% from the field and 42.4% from three, while the Trail Blazers shot 40.0% and 32.3%. They also won points in the paint 52-38. That is the most important number because the Trail Blazers need paint pressure to open their threes. Once Wembanyama cut that off, their offense became much easier to guard.
Why The Trail Blazers Have The Advantage
The Trail Blazers’ case starts with the first half of Game 4. They were sharper, faster, and more aggressive early. Avdija kept getting to the line, Jrue Holiday gave them a steady veteran game, and the Trail Blazers built a 19-point lead. That matters because it shows they can still hurt the Spurs when they play with pace and attack before Wembanyama is set.
The problem is sustaining it. In Game 4, Avdija had 26 points, seven rebounds, and three assists, but also five turnovers. Holiday had 20 points, six rebounds, and four assists, but also six turnovers. Those two have to create almost everything, and that is where the Spurs are leaning on them. If the Trail Blazers are loose with the ball again, the series probably ends.
The Trail Blazers also need a real Henderson response. He had 31 points in their Game 2 win, then 21 in Game 3, but Game 4 was a disaster. He had zero points, zero rebounds, two assists, and four fouls in 27 minutes. For Game 5, the Trail Blazers need him back in attack mode, not drifting around the perimeter. If Henderson does not pressure the paint, Wembanyama can stay home and erase everything late.
X-Factors
Jerami Grant is the Trail Blazers’ cleanest X-factor. He had 17 points and five rebounds in Game 4, and he gave them useful scoring when the starting group stalled. The Trail Blazers need him as more than a spot-up option. If Grant attacks mismatches early, he can keep the Spurs from loading every help defender toward Avdija and Holiday.
Robert Williams matters because the Trail Blazers need vertical defense and offensive rebounding. He had four points, six rebounds, two assists, and two blocks in Game 4. That line is not huge, but his minutes were plus-three in a 21-point loss. If the Trail Blazers want to survive Wembanyama’s rim pressure, Williams has to be active without fouling.
Devin Vassell is a major Spurs swing piece. He had only 11 points in Game 4, but he added six rebounds, three assists, one steal, and one block. The Spurs do not need him to force shots when Fox, Castle, and Wembanyama are rolling. They need him to space the floor, defend wings, and make the right pass when the Trail Blazers send help.
Julian Champagnie also matters because his spacing keeps the floor open. He had eight points on 3-of-6 shooting and finished plus-22 in Game 4. When Champagnie is hitting enough shots to be guarded, the Trail Blazers cannot crowd Wembanyama’s catches or Fox’s drives as aggressively.
Prediction
The Trail Blazers have shown enough pride to make Game 5 uncomfortable, and Avdija has been too good to dismiss. But the Spurs look like they found the series in Game 4. Wembanyama’s return changed the defense, Fox gave them stable scoring, and Castle has been steady enough to handle playoff pressure. The Trail Blazers can win a quarter. I do not trust them to win four on the road with this turnover problem.
Prediction: Spurs 112, Trail Blazers 104
