The Celtics host the 76ers in Game 5 at TD Garden on Tuesday, April 28, at 7:00 p.m. ET. The Celtics lead the first-round series 3-1 after a 128-96 Game 4 win, and they now have a chance to close the No. 7 seed out at home. The 76ers already stole one game at TD Garden in Game 2, but Game 5 is now elimination basketball.
Jayson Tatum is leading the Celtics with 24.8 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 8.5 assists in the series, while Tyrese Maxey leads the 76ers with 25.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 7.3 assists. Jaylen Brown has been the leading scorer with 26.8 points and 6.3 rebounds, and Joel Embiid returned in Game 4 with 26 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists after missing the first three games following an appendectomy.
Game 4 was the swing point. The Celtics made 24 threes, a franchise playoff record, and got 32 points from Payton Pritchard off the bench. The 76ers shot 9-of-30 from three, lost the rebounding battle 51-30, and never recovered from an 18-point first quarter.
Injury Report
Celtics
No players listed.
76ers
Joel Embiid: Probable (post-appendectomy surgery recovery)
Why The Celtics Have The Advantage
The Celtics have the advantage because Game 4 showed they have already found the next counter. The 76ers got Embiid back, but the Celtics immediately made him defend in space. They pulled him into high actions, forced him away from the paint, and then attacked the rotations behind him. That is why the 24 made threes were not just a hot shooting night. They came from paint touches, kickouts, extra passes, and the 76ers being late to the next shooter.
The rebounding gap is also hard to ignore. The Celtics had 14 offensive rebounds in Game 4 and scored 18 second-chance points. The 76ers had only six offensive rebounds and nine second-chance points. That is a major problem for a team already playing from behind. If the Celtics keep getting extra possessions, the 76ers need elite shooting just to stay even.
The Game 5 adjustment for the Celtics is protecting the ball and avoiding a relaxed start. They had 17 turnovers in Game 3 and still won, but that game stayed close because the 76ers got enough chaos. In Game 4, the Celtics had only 12 turnovers and controlled the game from the first quarter. At home, that discipline should be enough.
Why The 76ers Have The Advantage
The 76ers’ best case starts with Embiid and Maxey. Embiid’s Game 4 line was strong considering the layoff: 26 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists in 34 minutes. Maxey had 22 points and six assists, but only took 14 shots. That has to change. The 76ers need Maxey attacking early, not waiting for the game to slow down around Embiid post touches.
Game 2 is the blueprint. The 76ers won 111-97 by making 19 threes, getting 30 points from VJ Edgecombe, 29 from Maxey, and limiting the Celtics to 26.0% from three. That was the only game where the 76ers looked like they controlled tempo and forced the Celtics into enough difficult shots.
The defensive adjustment is the hard part. The 76ers cannot overhelp the same way they did in Game 4. If Embiid is in drop coverage, the low man has to be sharper. If they switch or hedge, the weak-side rotations have to happen earlier. The Celtics are too prepared to give up open threes after one pass.
X-Factors
VJ Edgecombe is the biggest 76ers swing piece. He is averaging 14.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 2.8 assists in the series, but the shooting has fallen off after Game 2. He went 6-of-10 from three in that win, then 0-of-7 in Game 3 and 0-of-4 in Game 4. The 76ers need his Game 2 spacing back. Without it, the Celtics can crowd Maxey and Embiid.
Paul George has been efficient from deep, but he has to impact more than the shot chart. He is averaging 17.5 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 2.5 assists in the series, and he is 10-of-17 from three. The 76ers need him to defend Brown, rebound, and create secondary offense. In Game 4, George had 16 points but only four rebounds and one assist. That is not enough in an elimination game.
Payton Pritchard is now a real series problem. He is averaging 15.8 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 4.5 assists, and Game 4 was his breakout: 32 points, five assists, and 6-of-12 from three. The 76ers cannot keep giving him clean switches against slower defenders. If Pritchard wins the bench minutes again, the series likely ends.
Nikola Vucevic gives the Celtics another pressure point. He is averaging 6.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 2.5 assists, but his role is more tactical than statistical. He spaces the floor, screens, and pulls Embiid away from the rim. If he hits early threes, the 76ers’ defensive structure gets stretched again.
Prediction
The 76ers should be better than they were in Game 4, and Embiid being probable gives them a real chance to make this competitive. But the Celtics have too many answers. They are healthier, deeper, better on the glass, and they have already shown they can attack Embiid’s defensive mobility without losing their spacing. Maxey can steal a quarter, but I do not think the 76ers have enough clean offense to steal the game.
Prediction: Celtics 119, 76ers 108
