The Pistons had to climb out of a 3-1 hole. The Cavaliers had to survive a Game 7 after losing two chances to close. That gives Game 1 a strange feel. Both teams arrive with momentum, but neither arrives clean. The second round opens Tuesday at Little Caesars Arena, with the top-seeded Pistons hosting a Cavaliers team that has more playoff experience and more established half-court scoring. Game 1 tips at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Cade Cunningham enters as the biggest player in the matchup after averaging 32.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 7.1 assists in the first round. James Harden led the Cavaliers’ first-round offense at 20.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 6.1 assists. The Cavaliers scored more efficiently across the first round, but the Pistons come in with the better defensive identity and home floor.
Game 7 told the story for both teams. The Pistons beat the Magic 116-94 behind 32 points and 12 assists from Cunningham, 30 points from Tobias Harris, and 15 points and 15 rebounds from Jalen Duren. The Cavaliers beat the Raptors 114-102, with Jarrett Allen delivering one of his best playoff games: 22 points and 19 rebounds.
Injury Report
Pistons
Kevin Huerter: Questionable (adductor)
Cavaliers
No players listed.
Why The Pistons Have The Advantage
The Pistons have the advantage because their defense already looks playoff-ready. They held the Magic to 45.6% shooting in the paint in the first round, the worst mark by any team in any playoff series in seven years. That is the first thing to watch in Game 1. The Cavaliers have more scoring options than the Magic did, but they still need to prove they can finish through the Pistons’ size and pressure.
The Game 1 question is how much the Pistons can make Harden and Donovan Mitchell work before the shot. Cunningham carried a huge offensive load in Round 1, but Ausar Thompson is the defensive piece who may decide the first game. He can guard Mitchell for stretches, help off weaker shooters, and create transition chances.
The Pistons also have the emotional edge. They won three straight elimination games against the Magic, then finished Game 7 with real force. Harris finally gave Cunningham the second scorer he needed, and Duren’s Game 7 was his first double-double of the series. If that version of Duren shows up again, the Pistons can make Allen and Evan Mobley defend the glass every possession.
Why The Cavaliers Have The Advantage
The Cavaliers have the advantage if this becomes a shot-making series. The Pistons can defend, but the Cavaliers have more creators. Harden, Mitchell, Mobley, Allen, Max Strus, and Dennis Schroder give Kenny Atkinson more ways to attack than the Magic had. This matchup has the Pistons’ grit against the Cavaliers’ finesse, and that is exactly why Game 1 is important. The Cavaliers need to move the ball before the Pistons’ defense is set.
The key adjustment is pressure on Cunningham. The Pistons set 363 ball screens for him in the first round, 120 more than any other team set for one player. The Magic barely forced the ball out of his hands. The Cavaliers should be more aggressive. They do not need to blitz every screen, but they have to change the rhythm, make him give it up earlier, and force the Pistons’ role players to create.
The Cavaliers also need to reestablish the frontcourt. Allen is coming off a 22-point, 19-rebound Game 7, and Mobley gives them a second interior scorer and passer. Duren was better in Game 7, but Allen is a harder matchup than Wendell Carter Jr. because of his rim running and offensive rebounding. If the Cavaliers win the paint early, the Pistons may have to shrink the floor, and that opens cleaner threes for Mitchell and Strus.
X-Factors
Jalen Duren is the Pistons’ first X-factor. He had 15 points and 15 rebounds in Game 7 after a quiet first six games. The Pistons need that version against Allen. If Duren is active as a screener, rebounder, and rim finisher, the Cavaliers cannot just load up on Cunningham.
Tobias Harris may matter just as much. He scored 30 points in Game 7, his highest-scoring game of the season and one of the best playoff games of his career. The Cavaliers will try to make Cunningham give up the ball. Harris has to punish those possessions.
Dean Wade is a quiet Cavaliers swing piece. He is projected to be included in the starting lineup, and his size makes him one of the better first looks against Cunningham. The issue is offense. If Wade is ignored, the Pistons can crowd Harden and Mitchell.
Max Strus has to hit shots. The Cavaliers’ spacing will decide how much room Harden and Mitchell have to attack. If Strus makes early threes, the Pistons have to defend wider. If he misses, Thompson and Duren can keep shrinking the paint.
Prediction
The Cavaliers are dangerous because their offense has more layers than the Magic’s. Harden and Mitchell should create better looks than what the Pistons saw in Round 1. Still, Game 1 sets up slightly better for the Pistons. They are home, they are more physical, and Cunningham is playing with complete control. The Cavaliers will make it close, but the Pistons’ defense and rebounding should carry the opener.
Prediction: Pistons 106, Cavaliers 101
