“You must win 40 games before you lose 20 to be seen as an elite team.”
Legendary coach Phil Jackson always believed in the “40-20” rule when it comes to analyzing a team’s championship chances. Now what is that rule exactly? The milestone means securing your 40th victory before succumbing to your 20th defeat. While this achievement doesn’t serve as an absolute prophecy of title triumph, NBA history does suggest that it’s a pivotal indicator.
Teams that have managed this feat have often found themselves in prime position for postseason success. In the last 44 years, 37 NBA champions have met this criteria. However, as with any narrative, there are exceptions—instances where teams reached this milestone but ultimately fell short of the ultimate prize. Only three teams in the last 44 years have had 20 losses before 40 wins and won the title.
*It is important to note that the 2020-21 Milwaukee Bucks are not counted due to the Covid-shortened season with only 72 games played. The 2019-20 Lakers could only play 71 games, the 2011-12 Heat only played 66 games (lockout), and the 1998-99 Spurs only completed 50 games (lockout).
1994-95 Houston Rockets (35-20)
47-35 Regular Season Record
At the heart of the Houston Rockets’ 1994-95 triumph was the transcendent performance of Hakeem Olajuwon, the team’s singular star player. Throughout the regular season, Olajuwon’s dominance was palpable, evidenced by his averages of 27.8 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 3.4 blocks per game. The Rockets would end up with a decent but unspectacular 47-35 regular-season record, only having 35 wins by the time they hit 20 losses.
In the Western Conference Finals, they faced the daunting task of overcoming a 2-0 series deficit against the Phoenix Suns. However, led by Olajuwon’s heroics and clutch performances from role players like Clyde Drexler, Kenny Smith and Mario Elie, the Rockets rallied to win the series in seven games, showcasing their resilience in the face of adversity and went on to win their second-straight title. In the Finals, it was Olajuwon who made the difference, averaging a staggering 32.8 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per contest, earning him the Finals MVP honors.
2003-04 Pistons (33-20)
54-28 Regular Season Record
Renowned for their suffocating defense and unyielding resilience, the Detroit Pistons’ acquisition of Rasheed Wallace before the trade deadline proved to be the final piece of the championship puzzle. Other key members of the Pistons’ championship squad included defensive stalwarts such as Ben Wallace, Chauncey Billups AKA “Mr. Big Shot”, Tayshaun Prince, and Rip Hamilton. The Pistons would be 33-20 to shatter the “40-20” rule but finished the season strong with 54 wins.
Making it to the Finals against the heavily favored Los Angeles Lakers, the Pistons entered as underdogs, facing a star-studded lineup led by Kobe Bryant, Shaquille O’Neal, and Gary Payton. However, it was the Pistons’ suffocating defense that proved to be the difference-maker, as they held the Lakers’ high-powered offense in check throughout the series. Led by the defensive brilliance of Ben Wallace and the steady leadership of Chauncey Billups (Finals MVP), the Pistons stunned the basketball world by dismantling the Lakers in five games to claim the NBA championship.
2005-06 Miami Heat (30-20)
52-30 Regular Season Record
The 2005-06 Miami Heat season marked a defining moment in the franchise’s history, as they captured their first NBA championship led by the dynamic duo of Dwyane Wade and the aging but still impactful Shaquille O’Neal. Despite not meeting the conventional “40-20 rule”, the Heat’s resilience and star power propelled them to the pinnacle of basketball success. Finishing the season with a solid 52-30 record, the Heat only had 10 more wins than losses by the time the 50-game mark was hit.
At the heart of the Heat’s championship run was Dwyane Wade, whose dominant performance in the NBA Finals cemented his status as one of the league’s premier talents. Throughout the series, despite being down 0-2, Wade showcased his scoring prowess and clutch gene, averaging a staggering 34.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 2.7 steals per game. His ability to take over games with his scoring and playmaking abilities proved to be the difference-maker for the Heat against the Dallas Mavericks.
Check the list of teams who won the NBA title after they got 40 wins before 20 losses since 1980:
– 2022-23: Denver Nuggets (46-20)
– 2021-22: Golden State Warriors (43-20)
– 2018-19: Toronto Raptors (48-20)
– 2017-18: Golden State Warriors (54-20)
– 2016-17: Golden State Warriors (67-15)
– 2015-16: Cleveland Cavaliers (49-20)
– 2014-15: Golden State Warriors (67-15)
– 2013-14: San Antonio Spurs (62-20)
– 2012-13: Miami Heat (66-16)
– 2010-11: Dallas Mavericks (47-20)
– 2009-10: Los Angeles Lakers (54-20)
– 2008-09: Los Angeles Lakers (65-17)
– 2007-08: Boston Celtics (66-16)
– 2006-07: San Antonio Spurs (46-20)
– 2004-05: San Antonio Spurs (55-20)
– 2002-03: San Antonio Spurs (48-20)
– 2001-02: Los Angeles Lakers (47-20)
– 2000-01: Los Angeles Lakers (41-20)
– 1999-00: Los Angeles Lakers (67-15)
– 1997-98: Chicago Bulls (60-20)
– 1996-97: Chicago Bulls (69-13)
– 1995-96: Chicago Bulls (72-10)
– 1993-94: Houston Rockets (50-20)
– 1992-93: Chicago Bulls (42-20)
– 1991-92: Chicago Bulls (67-15)
– 1990-91: Chicago Bulls (55-20)
– 1989-90: Detroit Pistons (54-20)
– 1988-89: Detroit Pistons (63-19)
– 1987-88: Los Angeles Lakers (58-20)
– 1986-87: Los Angeles Lakers (65-17)
– 1985-86: Boston Celtics (67-15)
– 1984-85: Los Angeles Lakers (56-20)
– 1983-84: Boston Celtics (61-20)
– 1982-83: Philadelphia 76ers (65-17)
– 1981-82: Los Angeles Lakers (41-20)
– 1980-81: Boston Celtics (61-20)
– 1979-80: Los Angeles Lakers (47-20)
Who Qualifies For The 2023-24 Season?
Boston Celtics: 46-12
Oklahoma City Thunder: 41-18
Minnesota Timberwolves: 42-17
Denver Nuggets: 41-19
There are only four NBA teams that have cracked the 40-20 rule so far this season, while the rest of the league has missed their chance including the Los Angeles Clippers who dropped their game against the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday night.
The Boston Celtics headline the list of teams who have met the criteria and are the undisputed title favorites after clever management moves to add Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday to the core of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Ranking 5th in offense and 5th in defense, the Celtics have arguably the best starting lineup in the NBA and are the undisputed favorites to make the Finals to represent the Eastern Conference.
There are three teams representing the Western Conference who have made the 40-20 rule including the Minnesota Timberwolves who have been considerably better than last season (42-40). They rank 1st in defense thanks to Rudy Gobert, while Anthony Edwards has stepped into the role of the star with an average of 26.5 points per game. Despite being overlooked, the Timberwolves have been excellent all year long.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are only 1.0 games behind the Timberwolves and sport a very young but talented roster featuring Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Josh Giddey, and Jalen Williams. The Thunder are also being overlooked this season due to their lack of experience in the playoffs, but they will be a threat as the playoffs come closer. Finally, the reigning NBA champions have also met the 40-20 rule.
The Nuggets won the title last year after securing an impressive 53-29 record. Led by superstar and two-time MVP Nikola Jokic and a core featuring Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr, and Aaron Gordon, the Nuggets are the favorites to make their second-straight Finals. While it isn’t a foregone conclusion that the Nuggets will meet the Celtics in the NBA Finals, it could be the most likely scenario as they are two of the four teams who have met the 40-20 rule.
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