All-Star Probabilities For NBA Stars: Guaranteed, High-Chances, Mid-Chances, No Chances

The All-Star Game is right around the corner, with under a month to go until we get to witness the 73rd event in NBA history. With plenty of voting having gone around, familiar faces Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James lead all players in voting so far. Unlike the past few seasons where we have seen All-Star Drafts, the NBA has reverted to its classic format of Western and Eastern Conferences, which could be the better way to get more competition established.

We are gearing up to see the best players get into action but there are new rules to be established this season when compared to previous years and let’s get into them before we discuss the All-Star capabilities for all the NBA stars: Guaranteed, High-Chances, Mid-Chances, and No-Chances.

Rules

– Classic Western And Eastern Conference Teams

– Traditional Scoring System With Four 12-Min Quarters

– No Drafts, 12 Players Represent Each Conference

– The Winner Of Each Quarter Will Donate Money To Chosen Charity

Now that the rules are clear and we are going back to the classical NBA format, here is what we can expect for the 73rd All-Star Game which will be held in Gainridge Fieldhouse in Indiana on February 18th. 

Western Conference Guaranteed

LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous Alexander, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Davis

The guaranteed players will make up the majority of the roster in the Western Conference. LeBron James is leading the West as the most recent tally shows he has accumulated votes while arguably the best player in the league Nikola Jokic will also headline. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a guaranteed and deserved starter while players such as Anthony Davis and Stephen Curry will make the team due to individual stats and global popularity regardless of team performance. 

Credit should also go to Kawhi Leonard who is almost back to his best while Kevin Durant is putting up 29.2 points per game this season for the Suns. Eight players out of 12 will be making the Western Conference All-Star Team, leaving little room for four players to battle it out for the final spots. 

Western Conference High-Chances

Anthony Edwards, Alperen Sengun, Paul George, De’Aaron Fox

Anthony Edwards is a near-guarantee to make the Western Conference All-Star Team as he is averaging 25.9 points per game for the best team in the West. Due to the popularity of the Rockets franchise around the world, particularly China and the Middle East, Alperen Sengun will likely make his first selection by posting 22.0 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game. 

Paul George has been the second-best player on the high-performing 27-14 Clippers team by averaging 23.6 points per game while also showcasing his all-around game on defense. Not to mention, De’Aaron Fox will also deserve a place as he is posting a career-high 27.9 points per game but he has to fend off stiff competition from the rest of the guards in the West. 

Western Conference Mid-Chances

Lauri Markkanen, James Harden, Rudy Gobert, Devin Booker, Domantas Sabonis, Zion Williamson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Chet Holmgren

These players might not have the highest chance to become All-Stars this season. In terms of who deserves it most from this group, it has to be Rudy Gobert who is spearheading while posting 2.1 blocks per game. The question is: does he have enough popularity?

Lauri Markkanen and James Harden also have a decent chance to make the team because the former is somehow uplifting a rebuilding Jazz team while the latter has changed the Clippers’ offense in a great way. Booker, Sabonis, and Holmgren also have their fans in the media and have performed at a high level. Holmgren specifically might have a strong case for being the second-best player on the 29-13 Thunder. 

Western Conference No-Chances

Victor Wembanyama, Jamal Murray, Ja Morant, Fred VanVleet, Austin Reaves

These players will not be making the All-Star Teams this year no matter how many votes they might get over the next month. Victor Wembanyama is clearly a fan-favorite in the West but an 8-35 team record will hold him back and it should have a role in this sense. 

Jamal Murray can’t seem to make an All-Star Team despite being an All-Star player, because there is too much competition above him and he seems to turn it up in the postseason. Ja Morant has been absent for most of the season and won’t play again, Fred VanVleet will be ignored because the Rockets can’t have two players represent them, and Austin Reaves won’t get any media votes despite his fan popularity.

The Most Realistic Roster For The Western Conference

Starters: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Nikola Jokic

Bench: De’Aaron Fox, Anthony Edwards, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Lauri Markkanen, Anthony Davis, Alperen Sengun

Eastern Conference Guaranteed

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, Jayson Tatum, Tyrese Haliburton, Donovan Mitchell

The guaranteed members of the Eastern Conference are the highest-performing players by far. Giannis Antetokounmpo might be the best two-way player in the league and has the Milwaukee Bucks in a fantastic position as the second seed in the Eastern Conference. Joel Embiid is coming off a 70-point performance and it might be likely he wins the MVP again along with being an All-Star starter. 

Jayson Tatum is the best player on the best team while averaging 26.7 points per game, Halliburton is a superstar offensive player with the best playmaking ability since Steve Nash, and the numbers Mitchell (27.8 PPG, 5.9 APG) is putting up can’t be ignored.

Eastern Conference High-Chances

Tyrese Maxey, Trae Young, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Jaylen Brown, Damian Lillard, Jalen Brunson

The following players have a very high probability to become All-Stars. Tyrese Maxey headlines as the likely winner for Most Improved Player, averaging a career-high 26.0 points per game. Meanwhile, Young (26.9 PPG, 10.8 APG) is a statistical monster and he is generating a ton of votes from the public so far. Jimmy Butler is an All-Star stalwart at this point and so is his teammate Bam Adebayo although they both might not be able to make it in a stacked conference. 

Expect Brown to be the second member of the Celtics to make the team as he is averaging 22.8 points per game while Lillard (25.5 PPG, 6.9 APG) and Brunson (26.5 PPG, 6.5 APG) are simply too productive this season to leave them out completely. The battle between Lillard and Brunson will be very interesting as both might not end up making it. 

Eastern Conference Mid-Chances

Scottie Barnes, Kristaps Porzingis, Paolo Banchero, Julius Randle, Mikal Bridges, LaMelo Ball, Derrick White

Scottie Barnes has a decent chance to make the team, averaging 20.1 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game and his performances without Pascal Siakam over the next month could elevate him into a different category. Kristaps Porzingis is playing on the best team in the league right now and always has a chance to make the team even if his numbers aren’t exactly elite.

Paolo Banchero has averaged 22.6 points per game for the 23-21 Magic and has been a standout performer for them. Julius Randle has a decent chance but has heavy competition, and the rest goes for the rest of the players in this category including Mikal Bridges, LaMelo Ball, and the fan-favorite Derrick White. 

Eastern Conference No-Chances

Jrue Holiday, DeMar DeRozan, Pascal Siakam, Jarrett Allen, Tyler Herro, Franz Wagner

The Celtics can’t have every player on the team be All-Stars, even if they might deserve it, meaning Jrue Holiday will be left out which seems fair. DeMar DeRozan has been arguably the only high-performing player on the Bulls but his scoring is down from last season. 

Pascal Siakam has been traded and that won’t help his case while Jarrett Allen, Tyler Herro, and Franz Wagner have been solid this season but not quite All-Star status when looking at the names above them. The competition above these players is quite high, although not as high as in the West, but they will miss out regardless. 

The Most Realistic Roster for the Eastern Conference

Starters: Tyrese Haliburton, Donovan Mitchell, Jayson Tatum, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid

Bench: Tyrese Maxey, Trae Young, Damian Lillard, Jimmy Butler, Jaylen Brown, Paolo Banchero, Bam Adebayo

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