ESPN’s regular-season projections suggested that defending champions, Golden State Warriors are most likely to finish eighth-seed with just 41.9 wins. The numbers were drawn up by analyst Kevin Pelton who used different projections based on the stats and other factors.
Taking the top spot were Phoenix Suns with 49 wins. Denver Nuggets and New Orleans Pelicans were placed second and third with 47.9 and 47.6 wins respectively. Other teams in the 40+ wins bracket included Memphis Grizzlies (46.1), Minnesota Timberwolves (45.7), Los Angeles Clippers (43.6), and Dallas Mavericks (43.1)
Regarding the Warriors’ run, Pelton opined that their finishes prior to the championship-winning season threw their projections. That said, he was still optimistic about their chances:
“Despite these losses, I expect Golden State to outperform this projection and be back near the top of the West.”
The numbers man explained that the win projections are based on “health luck, and how — three-year, luck-adjusted Regularized Adjusted Four Factors” to determine how many games will end with a loss for the teams. The result sees average totals closer to .500 than the actual standings by the end of the year.
The Warriors Had The 3rd Best Finish In The Western Conference Last Season
Last season, FiveThirtyEight projected a title for the Warriors, and that panned out exactly as predicted, and much of this was attributed to the 53-29 record they finished in the regular season.
This was the same number that the Miami Heat finished in the East, while Golden State ended third behind the Suns (64-18) and Grizzlies (56-26) in the West.
This time around, minus the projections, the Warriors outfit will look to defend their title and have already made some signings in JaMychal Green and Donte DiVincenzo.
At the time of writing, the side gears up to play two preseason games against the Washington Wizards in Tokyo. The Warriors will play their third preseason game against the Los Angeles Lakers before hosting them on opening night on October 18.
