Phil Jackson is one of the greatest NBA coaches in history, winning eight titles as a coach with the Chicago Bulls (6) and the Los Angeles Lakers (2). In a 2008 interview with ESPN’s Marc Stein, he discussed the ’40-20′ rule. This was a belief that a true NBA contender will always win 40 games before they lose 20 games.
With last night’s games, a fan on Reddit pointed out that the 40-20 club for this season is officially set: Cleveland Cavaliers, OKC Thunder, and the Boston Celtics.
There are many metrics through which people try to judge potential NBA Champions this deep into the season. The one with an exceedingly accurate hit rate is Phil Jackson’s 40-20 rule, as all but three NBA Champions since then in an 82-game season have gone on to disprove this theory.
Three teams have been knocked out of this running over the weekend.
It started on Saturday as the Denver Nuggets lost to the Lakers, their 20th loss of the season. The New York Knicks followed it up with a one-sided loss to the Celtics in a Sunday afternoon game marking their 20th defeat, while the Memphis Grizzlies lost a hard-fought game to the Cavaliers for their 20th defeat.
All three teams have 37 wins on the season. They could technically qualify by reaching the 40-20 mark, but it usually indicates a team wins 40 before they lose 20.
The only three teams in NBA history to have won a title by breaking this rule are the 2005-06 Miami Heat, 2003-04 Detroit Pistons, and 1994-95 Houston Rockets.
The Real Contenders Are Dangerous
Three teams have officially satisfied Phil Jackson’s cardinal rule behind an NBA contender. No matter what hypotheticals you devise, we haven’t seen this rule be broken in 19 years, so it is one of the most accurate measurements of what makes a contender over halfway into the season.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are the best team in the NBA with a 47-10 record. They have excelled with a revamped offense under new head coach Kenny Atkinson. The All-Star guard duo of Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell melds well with the elite frontcourt of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. With winter wing addition De’Andre Hunter making them even more dangerous, they are full-fledged contenders.
The OKC Thunder have the best record in the West with a 45-10 record. They’re running away with the lead in the West behind MVP frontrunner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s heroics. There’s a tremendous supporting cast behind him with do-it-all forward Jalen Williams, a 7’1″ three-and-D shot-blocker Chet Holmgren, and bruising technical center Isaiah Hartenstein.
The Boston Celtics are the reigning champions and are 41-16 this season. Their quality is unquestioned even though they’re the third-best team in the regular season this year. They’re Playoff-tested and led by proven All-NBA caliber stars like Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. They’re supplemented by an All-Star supporting cast featuring Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, and Derrick White, with 6MOTY contender Payton Pritchard off the bench.
All three teams have proven they’re well-rounded and dangerous. It’ll be interesting to see if they can fulfill Jackson’s prophecy, especially with many dangerous teams over a Playoff series still in the mix below them.
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