The Rockets host the Mavericks at Toyota Center on Saturday, January 31st, 2026, at 8:30 PM ET.
The Rockets come in 29-17 as the 4-seed, while the Mavericks are 19-29 sitting 12th.
Last time out, the Rockets handled the Hawks 104-86 behind Kevin Durant dropping 31. The Mavericks just lost a heartbreaker to the Hornets, 123-121, even with Cooper Flagg detonating for 49.
This is the season-series finale, and it’s been messy and personal. They’ve split the first three, and the Mavericks took the last two meetings, which makes this a real “prove it” spot for the Rockets at home.
Star-wise, it starts with Flagg at 18.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, 4.1 assists. On the other side, Durant is still Durant: 26.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.5 assists on 51.4% from the field and 40.8% from three. And if Alperen Sengun is cooking (21.1 points, 9.1 rebounds, 6.3 assists), the Rockets’ whole offense looks adult.
Injury Report
Rockets
Fred VanVleet: Out (right knee ACL repair)
Steven Adams: Out (left ankle surgery)
Tristen Newton: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Mavericks
Anthony Davis: Out (left finger sprain)
Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot surgery)
Dante Exum: Out (right knee surgery)
Moussa Cisse: Probable (G League – Two-Way)
Ryan Nembhard: Probable (G League – Two-Way)
Why The Rockets Have The Advantage
This is the simple case: the Rockets are just better on both ends right now. They’re scoring 116.1 points per game while allowing only 110.5, which is the profile of a team that can win even when the jumpers come and go.
They’re also doing it with real efficiency. The Rockets are hitting 47.5% from the field and 37.0% from three, and they rebound like a bully at 49.2 boards per night. That matters a lot against a Mavericks team that’s been living on thin margins and ends up in too many “one bad quarter and it’s over” games.
And matchup-wise, the Mavericks’ injury list is basically a second unit by itself. No Davis, no Irving, no Lively, that’s a ton of rim pressure and structure gone. If the Rockets keep their turnovers in check (15.5 a game, not great, but survivable), they should be able to grind this into a paint-and-free-throws night.
Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage
The Mavericks’ one real “I don’t care about your record” argument is that they’ve already shown they can solve this matchup. They’ve won the last two in the season series, and that matters because it says the game plan can work.
They can also punish teams that over-help or fall asleep off the ball, because their role guys have been forced into big usage all season and they’re not scared. Naji Marshall is at 14.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.0 assists on a wild 54.4% shooting. That’s not “nice bench glue,” that’s “I can run offense and hit you in the mouth.”
And if Flagg plays with that same “give me the keys” confidence again, it can get uncomfortable fast. He’s already the team’s engine, and the Rockets don’t have VanVleet to calm things down when the game turns into chaos.
X-Factors
Amen Thompson is the swing piece for the Rockets every single night. He’s at 18.1 points, 7.7 rebounds, 5.4 assists, and when he’s downhill early the Rockets look like they’re playing a different sport. If he turns the corner and forces rotations, it becomes a buffet for Durant and Sengun.
Jabari Smith Jr. is the other one. With Adams out, they need his size minutes to not be fake. He’s putting up 14.9 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and the Rockets need him to win the “other big” minutes, not just survive them. If his jumper is flat, it lets the Mavericks load up on the stars.
Keep an eye on Reed Sheppard, too. He’s been a real plug-in scorer, 12.8 points with 3.1 assists while shooting 40.7% from three, and that’s exactly what you need when your point guard is out for the year. If he hits two early threes, the Mavericks’ margin for error gets microscopic.
For the Mavericks, P.J. Washington has to be the grown-up on defense. He’s at 14.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.9 assists, plus 1.5 blocks, and they need that rim protection energy because Lively’s out and the Rockets will attack the paint all night.
And Klay Thompson is the volatility grenade. He’s at 11.8 points a night, but still taking nearly eight threes and hitting 37.9% from deep. If he gets hot, it’s the fastest way for the Mavericks to steal a road win they “shouldn’t” get.
Prediction
I’m taking the Rockets. The Mavericks can absolutely compete, and the season-series results prove it, but the injury gap is too big, and the Rockets’ two-way baseline is just higher right now.
Prediction: Rockets 118, Mavericks 109
