Ball Arena gets this one on Wednesday at 9 p.m. ET. The Nuggets come in at 51-28, good for third in the West, while the Grizzlies are 25-54 and sitting 12th.
The Nuggets are 26-13 at home, the Grizzlies are 11-26 on the road, and the recent form points hard in one direction: the Nuggets just beat the Blazers 137-132 in overtime, while the Grizzlies lost 142-126 to the Cavaliers.
The Nuggets lead the season series 2-1, but the Grizzlies did take the latest meeting, 125-118 on March 18.
The headliners are still obvious on the Nuggets side. Nikola Jokic is averaging 28.0 points, 12.9 rebounds, and 10.9 assists, and Jamal Murray is at 25.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 7.2 assists while shooting 43.4% from three.
The Grizzlies are operating with a very different profile right now, but Cedric Coward has given them 13.4 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 2.8 assists, and Rayan Rupert has produced 11.3 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 1.8 assists in 14 games with the Grizzlies.
This still feels like the Nuggets’ game to lose. But I would not treat it like a total no-drama spot. The Grizzlies already stole one from the Nuggets late in the season, and the Nuggets have had recent issues defending the three-point line. That gives the Grizzlies one real way to make this uncomfortable.
Injury Report
Nuggets
Spencer Jones: Out (right hamstring strain)
Peyton Watson: Out (right hamstring strain)
Grizzlies
Ja Morant: Out (left elbow UCL sprain)
Scotty Pippen Jr.: Out (right great toe surgery recovery)
Santi Aldama: Out (right knee surgery recovery)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: Out (right 5th finger surgery recovery)
Brandon Clarke: Out (right calf strain)
Zach Edey: Out (left ankle and elbow surgery recovery)
GG Jackson: Out (left knee soreness)
Ty Jerome: Out (left ankle sprain)
Javon Small: Out (left thigh contusion)
Cam Spencer: Out (low back soreness)
Jaylen Wells: Out (right great toe surgery recovery)
Olivier-Maxence Prosper: Doubtful (right ankle soreness)
Jahmai Mashack: Questionable (concussion protocol and nasal fracture, face mask)
Why The Nuggets Have The Advantage
Start with the obvious one. The Nuggets have the best offense in the league. They are scoring 121.8 points per game, own a 122.3 offensive rating, average 28.9 assists, shoot 49.5% from the field, and lead the NBA at 39.5% from three. That is not just a hot stretch. That is an elite offensive profile from every angle.
That is a brutal matchup for this version of the Grizzlies. They are allowing 120.0 points per game, and their injury report has basically swallowed the rotation. No Morant. No Aldama. No Edey. No Pippen Jr. No Ty Jerome. No Cam Spencer. That leaves the Grizzlies thin on creation, thin on size, and thin on lineup stability against the most organized half-court offense in the league.
The other piece is control. The Nuggets do not beat themselves much. The Nuggets have a turnover percentage of 11.5, which is one of the cleanest possession profiles in the league, and that matters against a Grizzlies team that needs chaos to survive. If Jokic gets the ball to the middle of the floor, the Grizzlies will have to choose between staying home on shooters or giving him single coverage. Neither answer is good enough.
I also like the Nuggets’ supporting cast in this specific matchup. Aaron Gordon is at 16.5 points and 5.9 rebounds while shooting 39.4% from three, Cameron Johnson is at 12.1 points on 42.9% from three, and Murray is having one of his best shooting seasons. Against a defense this shorthanded, the Jokic kick-out game should generate a lot of clean looks early.
Why The Grizzlies Have The Advantage
If the Grizzlies are going to scare the Nuggets, they have to do it with tempo and volume. The Grizzlies play at a 101.1 pace, seventh in the league; they attempt 38.8 threes per game, and they own a 25.1% offensive rebounding rate. That formula is simple: get the game moving, launch, crash, and try to turn one possession into two.
There is also a very real Nuggets weakness here. They have been talking openly about their recent three-point defense after the Blazers hit a franchise-record 25 threes on Monday, and the Grizzlies just tied the NBA record with 29 made threes in the loss to the Cavaliers. Even if that number is impossible to repeat, it shows the only path the Grizzlies have. If the Grizzlies get hot from deep, the Nuggets can be dragged into a longer night than they want.
And the Grizzlies already proved this matchup is not automatic. The Grizzlies beat the Nuggets 125-118 on March 18. In that game, they forced 19 turnovers, won the rebound battle 48-46, and got enough extra possessions to offset the Nuggets’ efficiency. I still do not think that repeats, but the blueprint is there.
X-Factors
Aaron Gordon is the first one for the Nuggets. He is averaging 16.5 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 2.6 assists, and he just swung the Blazers game with late shot-making. Gordon is the release valve when defenses tilt too hard toward Jokic and Murray. If he is scoring on cuts, finishing through contact, and hitting the corner three, Memphis will not have the bodies to cover everything.
Christian Braun is the second. His season line sits at 12.0 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.8 assists, and he gives the Nuggets an extra attacker who can run the floor and finish possessions without needing the ball for long stretches. Against a beat-up Grizzlies perimeter group, Braun’s movement and transition pressure can break the game open in those non-Jokic minutes that usually decide whether the Nuggets merely win or win comfortably.
For the Grizzlies, Dariq Whitehead is a real swing piece. He has averaged 14.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.7 assists in his first three games in Memphis. That is a tiny sample, but the role is obvious. He is one of the few Grizzlies wings on the floor right now who can create his own shot and fire without hesitation. If he gets downhill and makes a few jumpers early, the Grizzlies at least have a secondary scorer to keep the Nuggets honest.
Adama Bal is the other one. He is at 8.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 1.7 assists in six games, and he is shooting 43.3% from three. That matters because the Grizzlies do not need a careful game from him. They need a bold one. If Bal can stretch the floor, attack closeouts, and make the Nuggets guard one more live shooter, the Grizzlies can stay in their preferred math game. If not, this can get away from them fast.
Prediction
I think the Nuggets take this, and I do not think it should need late-game heroics again. The Nuggets have the league’s best offense, the league’s best three-point percentage, and one of the cleanest turnover profiles in basketball. The Grizzlies can absolutely make enough threes to be annoying for a half, especially with the Nuggets’ recent perimeter slippage, but the Grizzlies are just too depleted to keep answering Jokic and Murray for four quarters.
Prediction: Nuggets 124, Grizzlies 111
