The Spurs host the Rockets at Frost Bank Center on Sunday, March 8, at 8:00 PM ET.
The Spurs are 46-17 and second in the West, while the Rockets are 39-23 and fourth. At home, the Spurs are 22-6, and the Rockets are 18-15 on the road.
The Spurs come in off a 116-112 comeback win over the Clippers after erasing a 25-point deficit. The Rockets arrive after a 106-99 win over the Trail Blazers. This is the third meeting of the season, with the Spurs up 2-1.
Victor Wembanyama is averaging 23.7 points, 11.2 rebounds, and 3.0 blocks, while De’Aaron Fox is at 19.4 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 6.3 assists.
For the Rockets, Amen Thompson is putting up 17.7 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 4.6 assists, and Alperen Sengun is at 17.4 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 4.9 assists.
The setup is direct. The Spurs have won 14 of their last 15, the Rockets are trying to stop a slide, and both teams bring very different styles into the same game.
Injury Report
Rockets
Steven Adams: Out (left ankle surgery)
Tristen Newton: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Jae’Sean Tate: Out (right knee sprain)
Fred VanVleet: Out (right knee ACL repair)
Spurs
Harrison Barnes: Out (left ankle impingement)
Harrison Ingram: Out (G League – Two-Way)
David Jones Garcia: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Emanuel Miller: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Mason Plumlee: Out (return to competition reconditioning)
Why The Spurs Have The Advantage
The Spurs have the cleaner offensive profile. They are scoring 118.3 points per game, which ranks sixth in the league. They are also shooting 47.6% from the field, good for 13th, and 35.2% from three, which ranks 20th. The key number here is balance. They are not relying on one scoring source to get to their number.
Ball movement gives them another edge. The Spurs are averaging 27.1 assists per game, which ranks 10th, and they are turning it over 13.7 times per game, which ranks sixth-best in the league in ball security. Against a Rockets team that is second in steals and likes to speed games up with pressure, keeping possessions clean is a major part of the matchup.
The rebounding baseline is solid too. The Spurs are at 46.5 rebounds per game, which ranks 11th, and 34.9 defensive rebounds, which ranks second. That lines up well against a Rockets team that crashes hard on the offensive glass and leads the league in rebounds per game at 48.4. If the Spurs can hold up there, they can take away one of the Rockets’ clearest advantages.
Defensively, the Spurs are allowing 111.4 points per game, which ranks 11th. Opponents are shooting 45.0% from the field against them, which ranks fifth-best. The Rockets are not a huge three-point volume team, ranking 29th in makes and 26th in attempts, so the Spurs can stay focused on the paint and the defensive glass without getting stretched too far.
The matchup points in one direction. If the Spurs keep the Rockets out of second chances and force them into half-court offense, the game shifts toward the team with better ball movement, better recent form, and the stronger home record.
Why The Rockets Have The Advantage
The Rockets’ biggest edge starts with physicality. They are averaging 48.4 rebounds per game, which ranks first in the league, and 15.3 offensive rebounds, which also ranks first. That is the fastest way for them to generate points without needing elite half-court shotmaking.
They also defend at a high level. The Rockets are allowing 109.3 points per game, which ranks seventh, while holding opponents to 45.6% shooting, which ranks eighth, and 34.8% from three, which ranks fourth. Those are strong baseline numbers against a Spurs offense that is good, but not built around massive three-point volume.
The turnover pressure is real. The Rockets force 15.7 turnovers per game, which ranks second, and they average 8.8 steals, which ranks third. If they turn the Spurs into a live-ball turnover team, they can create the easier points that usually decide road games against top teams.
The problem is shotmaking from deep. The Rockets are making only 11.4 threes per game, which ranks 29th, even though they are shooting a respectable 36.9%, which ranks sixth. They simply do not get a lot of points from volume threes. Against a Spurs team that has been winning with steady offense and control, that can make comeback stretches harder to build.
X-Factors
Stephon Castle is averaging 16.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 6.9 assists. His role here is control. The Rockets want loose possessions and pressure possessions. If Castle keeps the Spurs organized and gets them into offense early, he can take a lot of that away.
Devin Vassell is at 14.5 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 2.4 assists while shooting 38.9% from three. The Spurs need his spacing in this matchup because the Rockets are comfortable loading bodies toward the paint and toward Wembanyama. If Vassell makes open threes, the floor opens up quickly.
Jabari Smith Jr. is averaging 16.1 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 1.6 assists. He is the kind of forward who can change the game without dominating the ball. If he helps the Rockets win the glass and gives them a secondary scoring line, they have a better shot at playing their preferred physical style.
Amen Thompson is putting up 17.7 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 4.6 assists. His pressure on the rim is one of the Rockets’ clearest weapons with VanVleet out. If he gets downhill consistently and turns rebounds into transition, the Rockets can keep the Spurs from settling into a comfortable half-court rhythm.
Prediction
I’m taking the Spurs. The Rockets have the rebounding edge, but the Spurs have the steadier offense, the stronger recent form, and the cleaner home profile. They are sixth in points per game, 10th in assists, second in defensive rebounds, and 22-6 at home. If they keep the Rockets from owning the offensive glass, they should control the game.
Prediction: Spurs 117, Rockets 110
