ESPN has released its projected Western Conference standings and win totals for the 2025–26 NBA season, and the Los Angeles Lakers didn’t get the respect some fans expected. The network’s analytics model pegs the Lakers at 45.8 wins, good for sixth place in the West, behind the Thunder, Warriors, Nuggets, Clippers, and Rockets.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder — 59.2 Wins
2. Golden State Warriors — 56.1 Wins
3. Denver Nuggets — 52.2 Wins
4. LA Clippers — 49.7 Wins
5. Houston Rockets — 46.9 Wins
6. Los Angeles Lakers — 45.8 Wins
7. Memphis Grizzlies — 44.6 Wins
8. Minnesota Timberwolves — 43.7 Wins
9. Dallas Mavericks — 43.6 Wins
10. Sacramento Kings — 43.5 Wins
11. San Antonio Spurs — 40.1 Wins
12. Portland Trail Blazers — 35.8 Wins
13. Phoenix Suns — 34.7 Wins
14. New Orleans Pelicans — 32.6 Wins
15. Utah Jazz — 20.2 Wins
The Lakers come in well below last year’s record of 50-32, which earned them the third seed in the West. That number feels like a regression for a team that, on paper, has only improved.
The model seems to overlook the internal growth and renewed chemistry that’s been brewing in Los Angeles this offseason. Luka Doncic has slimmed down, fully buying into conditioning and leadership as he enters his first full season as a Laker. His chemistry with LeBron James, who’s entering his 23rd season, looks strong.
LeBron may be in the twilight of his career, but he remains one of the most productive and intelligent players in basketball and now has a co-star capable of carrying the offensive load.
The Lakers have also quietly made smart roster adjustments. They have added Deandre Ayton, a quality starting center, while adding Marcus Smart and Jake LaRavia, boosting their depth.
In short, ESPN’s 45.8-win prediction feels conservative.
It’s also worth noting that the Western Conference has never been deeper. Oklahoma City, Denver, Houston, Minnesota, and Golden State are all legitimate title contenders; Dallas and Spurs are poised to make noise. That parity means even strong teams could have deceptively modest win totals, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t true contenders.
If anything, the Lakers might prefer to fly under the radar.
LeBron has always thrived on perceived disrespect, and Luka, now fully embracing his Los Angeles chapter, has something to prove after falling short in Dallas. Together, they give the Lakers one of the league’s most lethal offensive duos, and the supporting cast has the balance to compete with anyone.
Realistically, Los Angeles should be projected closer to 50–52 wins. If chemistry, health, and motivation align, a top-three seed is not just possible, it’s probable.
ESPN’s projections may see the Lakers as a middle-tier playoff team. But given their talent, experience, and star power, expect LeBron and Luka to spend the season reminding everyone that predictions don’t decide championships, performance does.
