The San Antonio Spurs host the Los Angeles Lakers at Frost Bank Center on Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET.
The Spurs come in at 25-11 as the No. 2 seed, while the Lakers sit at 23-11 as the No. 3 seed.
The Lakers just beat the Pelicans 111-103 on Tuesday behind 30 points from Luka Doncic and 30 from LeBron James. The Spurs just took a brutal 106-105 loss to the Grizzlies, with Victor Wembanyama dropping 30 points in a minutes-limited return.
This is Game 3 of 4 between these teams, and the season series is tied 1-1.
Luka Doncic is averaging 33.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 8.7 assists. LeBron is at 21.7 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 6.8 assists, and his status matters a lot for how this game looks.
For the Spurs, Wembanyama is sitting at 24.3 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 3.4 assists, but the real swing factor is whether he can play normal minutes. De’Aaron Fox is giving them 21.8 points and 6.0 assists, and when he’s downhill, their offense looks like it has cheat codes.
Injury Report
Spurs
Devin Vassell: Out (left adductor strain)
Victor Wembanyama: Questionable (left knee bone bruise)
Lakers
Austin Reaves: Out (left calf strain)
Rui Hachimura: Out (right calf strain)
Adou Thiero: Out (right MCL sprain)
LeBron James: Questionable (left foot joint arthritis, right sciatica)
Why The Spurs Have The Advantage
They play like a top seed because they score like one and defend like one. The Spurs are putting up 119.3 points per game while allowing about 113.9, and that combo is exactly how you stack wins in January.
They also bring the bigger, cleaner team profile. They average 46.5 rebounds and 26.0 assists per night, and they only cough it up 14.1 times per game. That matters because the Lakers can get loose with the ball, and the Spurs will turn those mistakes into run-outs.
And if Wembanyama plays real minutes, it changes the geometry. The Lakers live in the paint off Doncic’s manipulation and big-man finishing, but having a 7’4 rim problem waiting at the end of those drives forces a lot more floaters and kick-outs. That is the Spurs’ dream script.
Why The Lakers Have The Advantage
The Lakers’ offense is basically “pick your poison” right now, and the poison is strong. They’re scoring 117.1 points per game and shooting 50.1% from the field, and when Doncic is cooking, every possession turns into a math test.
They can also win the efficiency war even if they don’t win the possession war. The Spurs take and make a ton of threes, but the Lakers can keep up because Doncic bends defenses until the right shot shows up, and that’s how you steal road games against good teams.
The swing is LeBron. If he plays, even at less than 100%, it gives the Lakers a second downhill engine and a closer who can punish smaller lineups. If he sits, the Lakers still have the best player in the game tonight, but they lose a lot of lineup flexibility and late-game counters.
X-Factors
Stephon Castle feels like the “this decides the game” guy for the Spurs. He’s at 17.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 7.0 assists, and he’s the one who can attack the Lakers’ guards without needing a perfect screen. If Castle wins his minutes, the Spurs can survive any weird Wemby restriction.
Julian Champagnie is the other big swing. He’s putting up 13.5 points and 4.5 rebounds, and if he hits early threes, it drags help defenders out of Doncic’s trap zones and opens lanes for Fox. If he’s cold, the Spurs’ spacing tightens fast.
Keldon Johnson is the chaos button. He’s at 14.7 points and 3.8 rebounds, and his whole job is to turn second units into fistfights. If the Lakers go small or light at the four, Keldon can straight-up body them for free points.
For the Lakers, Deandre Ayton matters more than people want to admit. He’s averaging 14.4 points and 8.5 rebounds, and he has to make Wembanyama defend real post-ups and real rim runs, not just stand there and erase shots. If Ayton forces early foul pressure, the whole Spurs defense changes.
Marcus Smart is the tone-setter on the perimeter. He’s at 9.6 points, 2.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 1.4 steals, and his best value is making Fox work for everything. If Smart turns this into a possession-by-possession grind, the Lakers can hang around even if their wing depth is patched together.
And keep an eye on Jake LaRavia. He’s only at 9.5 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.4 steals, but he’s been one of the sneaky glue guys in this stretch. If he wins the “extra effort” battle on the road, the Lakers’ injury-hit rotation looks a lot less fragile.
Prediction
I’m leaning Spurs, mostly because the home side has the more stable two-way profile and the Lakers’ wing injuries force too many guys into bigger roles. If Wembanyama plays enough to anchor the paint and Castle keeps the pace controlled, the Spurs should edge it late.
Prediction: Spurs 121, Lakers 116
