The Miami Heat welcome the Boston Celtics to the Kaseya Center for another chapter in one of the NBA’s most physical and tactical rivalries, with tip-off set for 7:30 PM EST.
Miami enters the night eighth in the Eastern Conference with a 21-19 record. The Heat have quietly stabilized after an uneven start, winning six of their last ten games and coming off a statement 127-121 win over the Phoenix Suns.
Boston sits third in the East at 24-15, also winning six of its last ten, though the Celtics arrive after back-to-back losses, including a narrow 98-96 defeat to the Indiana Pacers.
For the Heat, Norman Powell has been outstanding, averaging 23.9 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 2.7 assists. Tyler Herro is averaging 21.9 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 2.7 assists and is expected to play.
On the Boston side, Jaylen Brown has taken on an MVP-level workload, averaging 29.5 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 5.0 assists. Derrick White continues to be Boston’s stabilizer, averaging 18.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 5.2 assists.
This will be the second meeting between the teams this season. The Celtics took the first matchup on December 19 with a convincing 129-116 win, though the context is very different this time around.
Injury Report
Heat
Jahmir Young – Out (G-League)
Myron Gardner – Out (G-League)
Vladislav Goldin – Out (G-League)
Tyler Herro – Probable (Right big toe contusion)
Nikola Jovic – Probable (Right knee soreness)
Jaime Jaquez Jr. (Questionable)
Davion Mitchell – Doubtful (Left shoulder contusion)
Pelle Larsson – Available (Left finger injury)
Norman Powell – Available (Low back soreness)
Celtics
Josh Minott – Out (Left ankle sprain)
Jayson Tatum – Out (Right Achilles repair)
How The Heat Have The Advantage?
The Heat’s defensive identity remains elite. They rank fourth in defensive rating and are 14-6 at home, where their physicality is amplified. The Heat also score the fifth-most points in the league, a reflection of their improved pace and spacing.
They shoot the ninth-best percentage from three, rebound at a top-six level, and rank seventh in assists, showing strong ball movement. Miami also forces turnovers at a high rate, ranking sixth in steals, while committing the third fewest fouls in the league. That discipline matters against a Boston team that thrives on spacing and free-flow offense.
How The Cetlics Have The Advantage?
The Cetlics’ offense is still one of the league’s most dangerous units. They rank second in offensive rating and third in net rating, even without Jayson Tatum. The Celtics attempt to make the second-most three pointers in the league and do so efficiently.
They also take care of the ball better than anyone, ranking lowest in turnovers per game. That ball security directly counters Miami’s pressure-based defense. Boston is also strong on the offensive glass and ranks eighth in blocks, allowing them to extend possessions and protect the rim without overcommitting.
X-Factors
For the Heat, the backbone of everything still runs through Bam Adebayo. While his scoring numbers are slightly down at 16.8 points per game, Adebayo continues to impact winning in ways that do not always show up in the box score. He is averaging 9.7 rebounds and 2.7 assists, but more importantly, he remains the Heat’s defensive anchor.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. has emerged as one of Miami’s most reliable two-way contributors. Averaging 15.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 4.6 assists, Jaquez plays with a level of poise that belies his age. He thrives attacking mismatches, cutting without the ball, and making quick reads when defenses collapse.
Andrew Wiggins has settled into a steady role, providing 15.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game. While not flashy, his value comes on the wing, where Miami often needs a physical defender who can also punish closeouts. Wiggins’ length and athleticism give the Heat flexibility when matching up with Boston’s perimeter-heavy lineups.
Kel’El Ware has quietly been a revelation. Averaging 11.9 points and 10.1 rebounds, Ware has given Miami size, rim protection, and second-chance scoring. His presence has allowed Adebayo to roam defensively more often and reduced the physical toll on Miami’s frontcourt over long stretches.
For the Celtics, Payton Pritchard has become far more than just a bench spark. Averaging 17.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 5.3 assists, Pritchard has been trusted with real offensive responsibility. His confidence shooting off the dribble and ability to push pace keep Boston’s offense from stagnating when the starters sit.
Anfernee Simons provides instant offense off the bench, averaging 13.5 points per game. While his rebounding and playmaking numbers are modest, his scoring gravity matters. Defenses cannot relax when Simons checks in, and his ability to hit tough pull-up jumpers forces opponents to stay connected on the perimeter.
In the paint, Neemias Queta has given Boston a stabilizing presence. Averaging 10.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks, Queta’s physicality helps Boston survive non-starter minutes defensively. He sets hard screens, finishes efficiently around the rim, and protects the paint without overextending, which is critical against Miami’s cutters and dribble penetration.
Rounding things out, Sam Hauser plays a subtle but important role. Averaging 7.8 points and 3.6 rebounds, Hauser’s shooting gravity stretches defenses and creates driving lanes for Boston’s primary creators.
Prediction
This matchup has all the ingredients of a tight, physical game. The Heat’s defense and home court will keep them in it, but Cetlics’ shooting volume and composure without the ball give them a slight edge.
Prediction: Celtics 112, Heat 108
