The Boston Celtics saw their four-game winning streak snap on Wednesday, as the Denver Nuggets blew them out 103-84 at Ball Arena. That defeat meant the Celtics dropped to 38-20 on the season and failed to meet Hall of Fame head coach Phil Jackson’s criterion to be a legit title contender.
Back in 2008, Jackson had brought up his belief that a team can only be considered a real contender if it wins 40 games before losing 20. While that might seem a bit arbitrary, NBA history has shown that title-winners have almost always managed to pull this off. That has given credence to Jackson’s “40-20 rule,” and based on it, only three teams are serious contenders in 2026.
1. Detroit Pistons: 43-14
2. Oklahoma City Thunder: 45-15
3. San Antonio Spurs: 42-16
We only had three teams pull this off last season as well. They were the Celtics, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Cleveland Cavaliers. The Thunder, of course, would be the ones to go on and win the 2025 NBA title. Their victory meant that among the 46 title-winning teams since the 1979-80 season, 41 had met the criterion.
The only teams that hadn’t were the 1994-95 Houston Rockets, the 1998-99 San Antonio Spurs, the 2003-04 Detroit Pistons, the 2005-06 Miami Heat, and the 2020-21 Milwaukee Bucks. Now, the Spurs only played 50 games in the lockout-shortened 1998-99 campaign. They went 37-13, and you’d imagine they would have easily won 40 before losing 20 in a normal season.
So, if we exclude that one season, 91.1% (41/45) of title-winning teams have met Jackson’s criterion. History is certainly against teams not named the Pistons, Thunder, and Spurs in 2026. These three are indeed going to be extremely hard to take down.
The Thunder looked to be on pace to beat the single-season record of 72 wins when they started 24-1, but injuries have slowed them down a bit. Still, this is a team that looks set to win 60+ games in back-to-back seasons and is very much the favorite to win the West.
The Thunder are led by reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is having another outstanding campaign. Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.3 steals, and 0.8 blocks per game in 2025-26, and has been the frontrunner for MVP.
To go with the Canadian guard, the Thunder have young one-time All-Stars Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams among their ranks. Williams made both the All-NBA and All-Defensive teams last year, but has missed a big chunk of this season with injuries.
If these three are healthy, beating the Thunder in a seven-game series might just be the hardest task in the NBA today. They are surrounded by quality role players, too, like Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, Ajay Mitchell, Jared McCain, and Isaiah Hartenstein.
The Thunder are very deep, but there is one team that has given them problems: the Spurs. They have won the season series between these teams 4-1, and Williams pointed to Victor Wembanyama when asked why San Antonio has given them problems.
Wembanyama is averaging 24.0 points, 11.2 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.0 steals, and 2.9 blocks per game in 2025-26. The Frenchman is putting up those numbers despite averaging less than 30 minutes a night.
Wembanyama is the best defensive player in the NBA by a mile and is improving on the offensive end by the day. He has a quality supporting cast that includes Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, and De’Aaron Fox, who was named an All-Star for the second time in his career in 2026.
The concern with the Spurs, though, is that we don’t often see a group go all the way the very first time they make the playoffs. Can they be an exception to the norm? Well, you wouldn’t bet against them purely because of Wembanyama.
Lastly, we get to the Pistons, who currently have the best record in the NBA. They don’t have a whole lot of playoff experience either, but did make it to the postseason in 2025.
That campaign saw Cade Cunningham become an All-Star for the first time, and he has now established himself as one of the best players in the NBA. Cunningham is averaging 25.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, 9.8 assists, 1.5 steals, and 0.9 blocks per game in 2025-26. He is in the running for MVP along with Gilgeous-Alexander and Wembanyama.
As for Cunningham’s supporting cast, 2026 All-Star Jalen Duren is the standout. There is a good mix of veterans and youngsters there as well, with Tobias Harris, Duncan Robinson, Ausar Thompson, and Isaiah Stewart. There is a lot to like with these Pistons, and you’d have to say they are the favorites to win the East.
It’s fairly likely that one of these three will win the championship, but there is another team that deserves to be considered a serious contender: the Nuggets. The 37-22 Nuggets have been ravaged by injuries this season, and if they are healthy come playoffs, there isn’t a team in the NBA that you wouldn’t give them a realistic chance of beating. They, of course, took the Thunder to seven games in the playoffs last season.
History is against the Nuggets, though, based on the 40-20 rule. Can they join those handful of teams that defied the odds? Time will tell.
