The Nuggets host the Trail Blazers at Ball Arena on Sunday, March 22, at 5 p.m. ET.
The Nuggets enter this one at 43-28, good for fifth in the West. The Trail Blazers are 35-36 and sit eighth in the West, so this is not some sleepy late-season game. One side is trying to hold playoff ground. The other is trying to keep its play-in position and maybe climb a little higher.
The Nuggets are 20-13 at home. The Trail Blazers are 17-20 on the road. That is not a massive road disaster, but it is still a real edge for a team that usually scores more cleanly in its own building.
Both teams are coming in with real momentum. The Nuggets just beat the Raptors 121-115 behind 31 points from Jamal Murray, while the Trail Blazers beat the Timberwolves 108-104 for their third straight win behind 26 points from Jerami Grant and 25 from Deni Avdija.
The season series is tied 1-1. The Trail Blazers took the first meeting 109-107. The Nuggets answered by smashing them 157-103 in the second one. That split tells you almost everything. If the Trail Blazers can keep this game controlled and physical, they can hang around. If the Nuggets get comfortable offensively, this can get ugly fast.
Nikola Jokic has been his usual monster, putting up 28.1 points, 12.6 rebounds, and 10.5 assists per game. Murray has added 25.2 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 7.1 assists while shooting 42.1% from three.
For the Trail Blazers, Avdija has taken on a huge load with 24.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 6.6 assists, while Donovan Clingan has given them 12.3 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks.
This game really comes down to whether the Trail Blazers can drag the Nuggets into a choppy, second-chance fight. Because if this turns into a clean offensive game, that is a bad bet against Jokic and Murray.
Injury Report
Trail Blazers
Damian Lillard: Out (left Achilles tendon injury management)
Caleb Love: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Shaedon Sharpe: Out (left fibula stress reaction)
Hansen Yang: Out (G League – On Assignment)
Jerami Grant: Questionable (left foot soreness)
Vit Krejci: Questionable (left calf contusion)
Nuggets
Chris Youngblood: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Peyton Watson: Questionable (right hamstring strain)
Why The Nuggets Have The Advantage
The biggest edge in this matchup is simple. The Nuggets have the best offense in the league. Their 121.5 offensive rating ranks first; they score 120.7 points per game, they shoot 49.3% from the field, which ranks second, and they knock down 39.1% from three, which ranks first. They also get to the line 26.3 times per game, which ranks third. That is an elite offensive profile across the board, and it is the kind of profile that punishes any defense that is even a little late on its rotations.
The second part of the case is the passing. The Nuggets average 28.3 assists per game, which puts them near the top of the league, and that matters a lot against a Trail Blazers team that can defend but is still vulnerable to sharp decision-making in the half-court. Jokic is the engine of all of it, of course, but this is bigger than one player. When the Nuggets are right, they do not just score. They force a defense to make three or four correct reads in the same possession, and most teams eventually break.
There is also a matchup-specific angle here. The Trail Blazers are 22nd in offensive rating at 113.8 and 29th in three-point percentage at 33.8%. That means they already operate with a thinner scoring margin than most playoff-level teams. So even though the Nuggets are only 22nd in defensive rating at 117.1, the Trail Blazers still have to prove they can keep up possession for possession if this gets loose. That is asking a lot from a team that relies heavily on Avdija’s creation and Clingan’s interior work.
And one more thing matters here. The Nuggets are at home, and the Trail Blazers just saw what this matchup can look like when the Nuggets’ offense gets rolling. That 157-103 game was not a normal loss. It was a full collapse. I do not think this one turns into that kind of blowout, but it is still a reminder that the gap in offensive ceiling between these teams is very real.
Why The Trail Blazers Have The Advantage
The Trail Blazers do have a real path, and it starts with pace and pressure. They play at a 100.9 pace, which ranks eighth in the league, they grab 46.0 rebounds per game, and they get to the line 25.2 times per game. That matters because the Nuggets are not built to overwhelm teams defensively. If the Trail Blazers can run a little more, extend possessions on the glass, and put pressure on the rim often enough to get free throws, they can make this game much more uncomfortable than the talent gap suggests.
The rebounding piece is especially important. Clingan is one of the best volume rebounders in the league at 11.6 per game, and the Trail Blazers as a team have been strong enough on the glass to stay in games even when the jump shot is not there. That matters here because the Nuggets do not dominate the glass the way some people assume. They are at 43.4 rebounds per game, while the Trail Blazers are at 46.0. If Clingan controls the paint and Avdija keeps rebounding from the wing, the Trail Blazers can create the kind of possession battle that shortens the gap.
There is also the form argument. The Trail Blazers have won three straight and four of five, and the latest one against the Timberwolves showed the exact kind of resilience they need in this building. They fell behind by 18, came back, and got big late shots from Grant. That matters because this team does not have to be perfect to be annoying. It just has to stay aggressive and keep the game alive into the fourth quarter. Against a Nuggets defense that has been inconsistent all season, that is not impossible at all.
The final piece is that Avdija is good enough to bend this game if the Nuggets do not treat him like a real lead creator. He is at 24.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 6.6 assists. That is star-level usage, even if the efficiency is not always beautiful. If he gets downhill, forces help, and turns this into a game where the Nuggets have to rotate more than they want, the Trail Blazers can absolutely generate enough offense to make this a live underdog spot.
X-Factors
Aaron Gordon is a huge one for the Nuggets. He has given them 16.8 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 2.5 assists while shooting 40.3% from three. Against the Trail Blazers’ size, Gordon matters because he is the connective forward who can finish inside, cut behind the defense, and still punish a late closeout. If he wins the matchup at the four, the Trail Blazers will have a much harder time loading up on Jokic and Murray.
Tim Hardaway Jr. is the spacing swing piece. He is putting up 13.8 points per game and shooting 40.8% from three. The Trail Blazers are 29th in three-point percentage themselves, so they cannot really afford a math problem here. If Hardaway gets loose for four or five made threes, the whole game tilts toward the Nuggets’ preferred style very quickly.
Toumani Camara is one of the Trail Blazers’ most important non-stars in a matchup like this. He is at 12.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 2.5 assists, and his value goes beyond the raw line. He is the kind of wing defender and secondary rebounder this team needs to survive against bigger offensive teams. If Camara can make life harder on the perimeter and chip in enough offense without forcing anything, the Trail Blazers stay more connected.
Jerami Grant belongs here because his availability and shot-making change the entire tone of the game. He is posting 18.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.2 assists, and he just scored 26 in the win over the Timberwolves. The Trail Blazers need his pull-up scoring badly because they are not built to manufacture easy offense from three. If Grant plays and looks like himself, they become much more dangerous late in possessions.
Prediction
I’m taking the Nuggets, and I do not think this is a tough call unless the Trail Blazers completely own the possession battle. The Nuggets have the No. 1 offense in the league, the best three-point percentage in the league, a top-three free-throw rate, and the best player in the matchup by a mile. The Trail Blazers are playing good ball, and I buy them as a team that can keep this respectable because of their pace, rebounding, and Avdija’s playmaking. But over 48 minutes, I trust the Nuggets’ offensive floor a lot more than I trust the Trail Blazers’ shot-making.
Prediction: Nuggets 124, Trail Blazers 113
