Madison Square Garden gets a tricky one on Tuesday night. The New York Knicks come in at 47-25, third in the East, with a 26-9 home record.
The New Orleans Pelicans are 25-47, 11th in the West, and just 9-25 on the road. On paper, that looks simple. In reality, it is a little more annoying than the standings suggest because the Pelicans have been playing better lately and already pushed the Knicks once this season.
The Knicks are rolling. Their last game was a 145-113 win on Sunday over the Wizards, their sixth straight victory. The Pelicans are coming off a 111-106 loss on Saturday to the Cavaliers, a game in which Zion Williamson scored 25 points, and Dejounte Murray handed out 10 assists.
The season series also gives this matchup a little edge, because the Knicks had to work for a 130-125 win in the first meeting on December 29. Jalen Brunson had 28 points and 10 assists in that one, while Williamson finished with 32.
For the Knicks, Jalen Brunson is putting up 26.1 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 6.6 assists, while Karl-Anthony Towns is at 20.2 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 2.9 assists.
For the Pelicans, Trey Murphy III has produced 21.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 3.8 assists, and Zion Williamson has given them 21.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 3.3 assists while shooting 59.8% from the field.
The clean version of this game favors the Knicks. The ugly version, with Williamson getting downhill over and over, is where the Pelicans can make this interesting.
Injury Report
Knicks
Miles McBride: Out (pelvic, core muscle surgery)
Landry Shamet: Out (right knee, tibial plateau contusion)
Trey Jemison III: Questionable (G League – Two-Way)
Dillon Jones: Questionable (G League – Two-Way)
Kevin McCullar Jr.: Questionable (G League – Two-Way)
Pelicans
Trey Alexander: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Hunter Dickinson: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Bryce McGowens: Out (right small toe fracture)
Josh Oduro: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Why The Knicks Have The Advantage
The first argument is the overall team profile. The Knicks own a 119.7 offensive rating, which ranks third in the league, and a 112.7 defensive rating, which ranks fifth. They are also shooting 37.4% from three, fourth in the NBA. That is a real contender profile, not just a hot streak profile. The Pelicans, by comparison, sit at 114.6 on offense and 118.2 on defense, which slots them around 20th offensively and 24th defensively. That gap is the whole game in one snapshot.
The next layer is style. The Knicks play slower than most good teams, with a 97.49 pace, and that usually helps them because they can turn games into half-court reads built around Brunson and Towns. They do not need chaos to score. They need space, patient execution and enough shooting around the stars. That is a dangerous formula against a Pelicans defense that has leaked points for most of the year and has not shown it can string together stops consistently away from home.
Then there is the home split and recent rhythm. The Knicks are 26-9 in this building, they have won six straight, and Sunday’s blowout over the Wizards looked like a team that knew exactly what it was supposed to do against a weaker opponent. Towns had 26 and 16, Brunson added 23, and seven Knicks scored in double figures. That kind of balanced game is what separates this team from the middle tier. The Pelicans have improved lately, but asking them to match that structure on the road is a tough sell.
Why The Pelicans Have The Advantage
The Pelicans’ best path starts with recent form, because they are playing better than their 25-47 record suggests. They are 6-4 in their last 10, and they have won 12 of their last 19. They also took the Clippers twice in three days last week before giving the Cavaliers a real game on Saturday. This is not a good team over the full season. It is a more dangerous one now than it was in January.
Williamson is the main reason. He has appeared in 45 of the last 46 games, and when he is healthy and engaged, he still bends the floor in a way very few players can. He is not bombing away from outside, but he is finishing nearly 60% of his shots and forcing defenses to collapse on almost every direct drive. The Knicks have good defenders. They still do not have an easy individual answer for a player with that kind of force and touch. If Williamson gets into the paint early, the Pelicans can make the game feel heavier than the Knicks want.
There is also enough shot-making around him to keep the game alive. Murphy is at 21.8 points per game and shooting 38.4% from three, and Murray has looked sharper since returning, including a 17-point, 11-assist night against the Clippers last week. The first meeting showed the outline. Williamson got 32, the Pelicans scored 125, and the Knicks had to lean on Brunson late. So even though the full profile leans toward the home team, the Pelicans have already shown they can turn this into an offensive test.
X-Factors
Josh Hart is a huge one for the Knicks. He is giving them 12.2 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 5.0 assists, and he fills in the ugly parts of games better than almost anyone on the roster. Against a team built around Williamson’s force, Hart’s rebounding and transition play can swing a lot of the in-between possessions. If he is flying around, the Knicks usually look a lot more connected.
OG Anunoby is the other local swing piece. He is at 16.7 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.6 steals, and this is the kind of game where his two-way presence should show up. The Knicks will throw different bodies at Williamson and Murphy, and Anunoby is the one wing on the roster who can guard up, switch, and still punish defenses without needing a huge volume of shots. If he plays well, the Knicks get a lot cleaner on both ends.
Herb Jones is one to watch for the Pelicans. He is averaging 9.0 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.7 steals, and his value is bigger than the scoring line. He is the kind of defender who can bother Brunson at the point of attack, fly around passing lanes, and make the game a little less comfortable for the Knicks’ guards. If he creates a few extra possessions, the Pelicans have a real chance to stay attached.
Yves Missi is the other Pelicans role player who could swing things. He has given them 5.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks in limited minutes, and the matchup is pretty simple for him. He has to rebound, contest at the rim, and survive the Towns minutes without letting the paint collapse. If he gives the Pelicans steady center play, it becomes easier for Williamson and Murphy to carry the offense.
Prediction
I’m taking the Knicks. The Pelicans are better than their record, Williamson is rolling, and this feels a lot less automatic than 47-25 versus 25-47 usually does. But the Knicks still have the stronger case almost everywhere you look. They are third in offensive rating, fifth in defensive rating, fourth in three-point percentage, and 26-9 at home. The Pelicans can absolutely make this rough for a half or even three quarters. Over 48 minutes, though, the Knicks have more shot-making, more structure, and fewer weak points.
Prediction: Knicks 121, Pelicans 113
