The Los Angeles Lakers are coming off their strongest month of the season, going 14-2 over March to secure a two-game lead as the No. 3 seed in the West. April action in the NBA is usually focused on the Playoffs, but the last few weeks of the regular season have plenty to play for this season. The Lakers’ lead on the No. 3 seed isn’t untouchable, and they’re going to face some matchups that will definitely put them to the test before the end of the season.
Luka Doncic is leading the team admirably, averaging 37.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 7.4 assists over March and cementing himself as a lead contender for MVP. LeBron James has found peace as the third option on the court, while Austin Reaves is excelling as a second option. JJ Redick just hit the 100-win mark as an NBA coach and will be hoping to stack some more wins before the season is over.
The franchise is heading into April with multiple impressive wins under their belt. Let’s take a look at how their games might play out and what their final seeding might look like.
Lakers @ Thunder
The month starts with arguably their biggest test of the month. The OKC Thunder are 60-16 but yet to lock up the No. 1 seed in the West, so every game is must-win for them until they know the chasing 57-18 San Antonio Spurs can’t catch them. They’ll bring their best to face the Lakers, especially with the game having eyes on it as a Doncic vs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander MVP clash. The Thunder have beaten the Lakers in two games already this season, and will be eyeing the season sweep.
Unless Doncic has a historic night on the road or coach Redick draws up a game plan that nullifies the weapons of the best team in the NBA, the Lakers are likely going to face a setback to start the month with a loss here. Even if they continue to play at the level we’ve seen over March, it might still fall short of the regular Thunder performance this season.
Prediction: Lakers 114, Thunder 121
Lakers @ Mavericks
This will be a notable game on the calendar as well, but not for the competitive fire this matchup brings. Doncic will return to Dallas and look to put on a show in the arena where he planned on spending the rest of his career. The Dallas Mavericks have a 24-52 record and look locked into the tanking race in the NBA this season, so it’s hard to imagine them being able to stop the Lakers.
The Mavericks will definitely be motivated to steal a win regardless of the tanking race, but Doncic has yet to lose a game to the Mavericks since they traded him away. There’s no reason for that to change with this fixture unless the Mavericks pull off an improbable upset.
Prediction: Lakers 131, Mavericks 109
Thunder @ Lakers
The only reason the Lakers have a fighting chance in this game compared to the first is that it’s at home for the Lakers. The Lakers have a 26-12 record at home and could use this slight advantage as a slight on-paper deterrent to the high-flying Thunder. This could be a loss as well, but if the Lakers want to prove themselves as real contenders, they at least need to win one of their two games against OKC in the next week.
Prediction: Thunder 111, Lakers 113
Lakers @ Warriors
The Golden State Warriors seem locked into the No. 10 seed in the West. Stephen Curry is projected to make his return sometime next week, so it’s fair to assume he’ll be playing when the Lakers visit the Chase Center. Curry’s presence complicates what could’ve been an easy Lakers victory, as Curry alone can be a game-changing force for the Warriors. Even if their seeding battle is over by then, Curry will be looking to play at his best if he’s on the court. Despite that, the Lakers should have enough to secure this win.
Prediction: Lakers 122, Warriors 114
Suns @ Lakers
This game will depend on the Lakers’ position in the standings. If they haven’t secured No. 3 by game 81 of the season, they’ll likely be forced to play their core stars. Losses to the Thunder could give chasing teams a chance to catch up in the standings, but the Lakers will hope that isn’t the case.
The Phoenix Suns will likely be playing a full-strength team regardless of their seeding situation, as Devin Booker can’t miss a game to preserve All-NBA eligibility, while Dillon Brooks and Jalen Green haven’t shared the court enough this season.
If the Suns come in hungry and the Lakers have already started resting their core players, this likely will be a loss for them. There are a lot of contingencies at play here, but this might be a tricky fixture against a team with an incentive to play at their best. If the Lakers have secured No. 3 by then, there’s no reason to risk playing their core players.
Prediction: Suns 113, Lakers 109
Jazz @ Lakers
Similar to the previous game, the result of a game against the Utah Jazz is dependent on what their standing situation looks like. If their draft odds are secured by then, this might be a tricky fixture for the Lakers. The Jazz have shown they can play at a high-level when motivated to win, so they could spring an upset against a resting Lakers squad on the final day of the season.
It’s a shame that such awkward matchups can come up at the end of the season due to tanking and load management practices, but the Lakers will have no reason to risk playing their core players if seeding is finalized by this game. Similarly, the Jazz won’t try to compete if another loss can give them a slight odds boost.
Prediction: Lakers 119, Jazz 108
Final April Prediction: 4 wins, 2 losses
Securing The No. 3 Seed Is Harder Than It Looks
Most of how the Lakers’ record plays out is dependent on their first three games of the month. Given the pace that the Denver Nuggets are chasing them down for No. 3 with, the Lakers can’t afford to rest player in the final few games if they haven’t secured No. 3. Two losses to the Thunder could leave them with the same record as Denver, meaning the Lakers have to play their core players down to the final game of the season.
If the Lakers end the season as we predicted, they’ll have a 54-28 record, which should be enough to ensure the No. 3 seed is theirs heading into the Playoffs. The franchise won’t try to play seeding games to try and get to engineer a specific matchup, but their best case is to get No. 3 and potentially delay a Thunder Playoff matchup to the Conference Finals.
It’s all to play for and all to lose for the Lakers still. If they are the contenders they think they are, their results in the crucial games against the Thunder next week might shape how their Playoff bracket looks.
