Ball Arena gets one of the best Western matchups on Saturday, April 4, at 3:00 PM ET, when the Nuggets take on the Spurs.
The Nuggets come in at 49-28 and fourth in the West, while the Spurs are 59-18 and second. The Nuggets are 24-13 at home, and the Spurs are 29-11 on the road.
Both teams are rolling into this one with real momentum. The Nuggets beat the Jazz 130-117 in their last game, their seventh straight win, behind Jamal Murray’s 37 points and another Nikola Jokic triple-double.
The Spurs answered with a 118-99 win over the Clippers, extending their streak to 11 games even without Victor Wembanyama in the lineup.
The season series is tied 1-1. The Spurs took the first meeting 139-136 at Ball Arena, then the Nuggets answered with a 136-131 win in the second matchup on March 13. That gives this game a little more bite than a normal late-season test because both teams have already shown they can score on the other side.
For the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic is putting up 27.7 points, 13.0 rebounds, and 10.8 assists, while Jamal Murray has produced 25.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 7.1 assists on 48.4% shooting from the field and 43.4% from three.
For the Spurs, Victor Wembanyama is back in the lineup and giving them 24.7 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 3.1 blocks per night. De’Aaron Fox is at 18.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 6.2 assists while shooting 49.0% from the field. This one feels like a playoff-level measuring stick because the Spurs have the hotter run, but the Nuggets still have the best offensive engine in the matchup.
Injury Report
Nuggets
Spencer Jones: Out (right hamstring strain)
Zeke Nnaji: Out (left hip sprain)
Peyton Watson: Out (right hamstring strain)
Tim Hardaway Jr.: Probable (left knee soreness)
Spurs
David Jones Garcia: Out (right ankle surgery)
Emanuel Miller: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Why The Nuggets Have The Advantage
The first Nuggets edge is obvious and still massive. They have the No. 1 offense in the league with a 122.1 offensive rating. They are also first in three-point percentage at 39.5%, and they score 121.4 points per game. Even against a Spurs defense that ranks third in defensive rating, that kind of shot-making gives the Nuggets a very real path to win this game at home.
The Nuggets also play their style with very little waste. They are at 28.8 assists per game, they shoot 49.5% from the field, and they turn it over only 13.0 times per game. That matters against the Spurs because the Spurs want to pressure actions, use length, and turn broken possessions into transition chances. If the Nuggets get clean entries into Jokic’s two-man game and keep the ball moving, the Spurs lose one of their best ways to tilt the game.
There is also a pace angle that helps the Nuggets. The Spurs play faster at 100.09 possessions per game, while the Nuggets are slower at 98.37. That usually means the Nuggets can choose more of the terms in a half-court game, especially at home. Against a Spurs team that has thrived by overwhelming teams with depth, defensive activity, and early offense, slowing the game a little puts even more pressure on half-court execution.
The matchup logic runs through Jokic. The Spurs have elite size and rim protection when Wembanyama is on the floor, but Jokic is the rare star who can punish that with passing instead of forcing shots. If the Spurs send extra help, the Nuggets can kick out to Murray, Cameron Johnson, or Hardaway. If they stay home, Jokic can control the paint and the glass. That is why the Nuggets’ offense is still the cleanest unit in the game, even against one of the league’s best defenses.
Why The Spurs Have The Advantage
The Spurs have been the better all-around team this season, and the numbers back it up. They rank fifth in offensive rating at 119.4, third in defensive rating at 110.9, and second in net rating at +8.5. The Nuggets’ offense is better, but the Spurs are much cleaner on the other side of the ball, and that balance is a huge reason they are 59-18.
They also have more control over the possession game than the Nuggets do in this matchup. The Spurs average 47.0 rebounds per game to the Nuggets’ 43.6, and they block 5.4 shots per game to the Nuggets’ 3.9. Those are not empty numbers. They point directly to how the Spurs can survive Jokic’s creation. The Spurs can contest at the rim, clean the glass, and keep the Nuggets from getting too many easy second chances.
The Spurs can also stress the Nuggets’ weakest team trait, which is defense. The Nuggets rank 21st in defensive rating at 117.3 and allow 116.6 points per game. That is the soft spot in the whole matchup. The Spurs are scoring 119.6 points per game, they are at 48.3% from the field, and they average 28.0 assists. If Fox, Harper, and Castle get into the paint and force the Nuggets’ back line to rotate, the Spurs have enough passing and enough wing finishing to get to their number.
The final piece is form. The Spurs have won 11 straight, and this is not a fake streak built on one side of the floor. They just beat the Clippers by 19 without Wembanyama, and before that, they had handled the Warriors, Bulls, Bucks, and Grizzlies. The Nuggets are hot too, but the Spurs look more complete right now, and that matters in a matchup this close.
X-Factors
Devin Vassell is a real swing piece for the Spurs because he gives them needed shooting against the Nuggets’ weaker perimeter defense. He is at 14.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.5 assists, and he is shooting 38.9% from three. If Vassell hits catch-and-shoot looks and attacks the Nuggets’ closeouts well enough to keep the defense rotating, the Spurs become much harder to load up against. If he has a quiet night, too much of the creation burden falls on Fox and Castle.
Keldon Johnson matters for a different reason. He has given the Spurs 13.0 points and 5.3 rebounds, and his bench scoring has been a steady source of pressure all season. Against the Nuggets, that second-unit force is important because the Nuggets can be vulnerable when the game turns into a scoring race outside the Jokic minutes. If Johnson gets downhill and finishes through contact, the Spurs can win the non-star stretches.
Christian Braun is one of the Nuggets’ key connector pieces here. He is posting 11.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.8 assists while shooting 51.7% from the field. He is not the first name defenses worry about, but his cuts, transition finishing, and activity around Jokic matter a lot against a long defense like the Spurs’. If Braun turns dead possessions into easy baskets, the Nuggets’ offense gets even harder to guard.
Cameron Johnson is the other one. He is giving the Nuggets 11.9 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 2.4 assists while shooting 42.7% from three. That shooting is a real pressure point in this matchup because the Spurs will have to make decisions about helping on Jokic and Murray’s actions. If Johnson punishes those help rotations, the Nuggets can open the floor and pull the Spurs’ rim protection farther away from the paint than it wants to be.
Prediction
This is a real test, but I like the Spurs a little more because they have fewer weak points. The Nuggets have the best offense in the league, and Jokic can absolutely win this game by himself for stretches, but the Nuggets still sit only 21st in defensive rating. The Spurs, meanwhile, are fifth in offense, third in defense, second in net rating, and they have been crushing people for two straight weeks. The Nuggets will score, but the Spurs have the better two-way structure, the stronger rebounding profile, and the more trustworthy defense in a game that should feel close late.
Prediction: Nuggets 118, Spurs 122
