The Eastern Conference First Round starts with Game 1 at TD Garden on Sunday afternoon, at 1:00 PM ET. The Celtics are the No. 2 seed, they have home court, and they were one of the best teams in the league all season. The 76ers are the No. 7 seed, but they are not coming in cold. They already had to win a Play-In game to get here.
The regular-season series finished 2-2, but that record needs context. The 76ers won the first and third meetings. The Celtics won the second and fourth. Jayson Tatum missed all four games, and the two 76ers wins came early in the season.
The 76ers also come in with better recent game rhythm. They beat the Magic 109-97 in the Play-In behind 31 points from Tyrese Maxey, 19 points and 11 rebounds from VJ Edgecombe, 19 points from Kelly Oubre Jr., and 14 points with 10 rebounds from Andre Drummond. The Celtics closed the regular season well and got Tatum back before the playoffs, but the 76ers already have one pressure win behind them.
The star math still leans Celtics. Jaylen Brown finished with 28.7 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 5.1 assists. Tatum put up 21.8 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 5.3 assists in 16 games after returning.
Maxey finished with 28.3 points and 6.6 assists, while Paul George gave the 76ers 17.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.6 assists. The Celtics have the better two-way team. The 76ers have enough perimeter scoring to make the opener competitive if the game stays close.
Injury Report
Celtics
No players listed.
76ers
Joel Embiid: Out (post appendectomy surgery recovery)
Tyrese Maxey: Available (right finger tendon strain – splint)
Why The Celtics Have The Advantage
The first argument is simple. The Celtics were much better over the full season. They finished with a 120.8 offensive rating and a 112.7 defensive rating. The 76ers were at 115.4 on offense and 115.5 on defense. That gap is large enough that the Celtics do not need a strange game to win. If Game 1 looks normal, the numbers already point their way.
The second numbers-based edge is possession control. The Celtics were top five in turnover rate and offensive rebound percentage this season. The 76ers are already missing their best interior player in Joel Embiid. If the Celtics take care of the ball and create second chances, they force the 76ers to win from a weaker margin.
After that, Game 1 becomes about where the Celtics can squeeze the matchup. The obvious spot is Maxey. He is going to carry a huge creation load without Embiid. The Celtics have enough size and enough perimeter defenders to make him work through crowded space. They do not need to trap every touch. They need to show length, switch enough size onto him, and make him play against a set defense over and over.
The Celtics should also attack the weaker defenders every chance they get. That means putting Maxey into actions, making the 76ers guard second and third moves, and forcing the help to keep shifting. The Celtics get into trouble when they settle. This is not the matchup for that. The clean path is ball movement, quick decisions, and constant pressure on the 76ers’ smaller guards.
There is also a frontcourt edge because Embiid is out. That does not mean the Celtics need to dump the ball inside. It means they can use size to finish possessions. Rim runs, cuts from the weak side, and offensive rebounds all become more important when the other team is missing its anchor in the middle. If the Celtics make Drummond defend multiple things on one possession, the game can get heavy for the 76ers quickly.
So the Celtics’ Game 1 formula is direct. Keep the offense sharp. Make Maxey see bodies. Use Tatum and Brown to force help. Win the glass. If they do those four things, the 76ers will have a hard time finding enough clean offense to steal the opener.
Why The 76ers Have The Advantage
The first reason the 76ers are dangerous is late-game defense. We said in our series preview that they had the best clutch defensive rating in the league at 98.6. That matters because their path is not about controlling the game for 48 minutes. Their path is about staying close and making the favorite execute late.
The second point is recent proof. The 76ers just won a Play-In game without Embiid. Maxey had 31. Edgecombe and Oubre both had 19. Drummond had a double-double. That does not erase the overall gap between the teams, but it does show the 76ers can win a pressure game with perimeter scoring and enough defense.
From a matchup standpoint, the 76ers need this game to be ugly. They do not want the Celtics moving the ball cleanly from one action to the next. They need to crowd drives, sit on spin moves, and force the Celtics deeper into the clock. That is where George, Oubre, and Edgecombe become important. If those wings can shrink the floor without giving away too many clean kick-out threes, the 76ers can keep the score in range.
They also need Maxey attacking early in possessions. If he is walking into late-clock isolations against a loaded defense, that is a bad setup. If he is pushing pace after rebounds and turning the corner before the Celtics load up, then the 76ers can create the kind of broken-floor offense they need. His fourth quarter against the Magic matters here. He scored 11 in the last period. That is the kind of burst the 76ers need again.
The other piece is pressure. The 76ers have less to lose in this game. If they keep it close into the second half, that pressure shifts. The Celtics are the team expected to control the series. So the 76ers need to drag the opener into that zone. Make the game slower. Make the Celtics grind through half-court possessions. Then see what happens in the last six minutes.
X-Factors
Derrick White is a major one for the Celtics because his shot can swing the whole feel of the opener. He is already one of their best perimeter defenders. The question is the offense. His effective field goal percentage dropped to 48.9 this season. If he hits open threes and punishes the second side, the Celtics’ offense gets much harder to load up against.
Neemias Queta is another important player because this series should put more pressure on the paint than usual for the 76ers. The Celtics do not need post scoring from him. They need rim runs, rebounds, and paint defense. If Queta wins space and helps control the glass, the 76ers lose one of their clearest ways to stay in the game.
VJ Edgecombe is the key non-star for the 76ers. He already scored 34 in the opening-night win over the Celtics, then followed that with 19 points and 11 rebounds against the Magic. The Celtics are going to give Maxey a lot of attention. Edgecombe has to punish that. If he attacks closeouts, runs the floor, and stays aggressive, the 76ers can keep the offense from becoming too predictable.
Andre Drummond is the other one because his role gets much bigger without Embiid. He had 14 points and 10 rebounds in the Play-In win. The 76ers need that version again. He has to end possessions, steal some extra boards, and keep the Celtics from owning the paint. If he loses the glass badly, the rest of the math gets hard for the 76ers.
Prediction
The 76ers should compete for a while. Maxey is too explosive not to win stretches. Edgecombe already looks comfortable in high-pressure games. The 76ers also have enough wing size to make the Celtics work. But the larger picture still points in one direction. The Celtics were better all season, they now have Tatum in a matchup where he missed every regular-season meeting, and the 76ers are still opening without Embiid.
Prediction: Celtics 116, 76ers 105
