Kevin Durant is one of the greatest players and scorers in NBA history. Last night in a blowout win over the Portland Trail Blazers, Kevin Durant scored 31 points. With that performance, Durant moved into 11th on the NBA’s all-time scoring list, passing Elvin Hayes. Durant did this just two weeks after passing Hakeem Olajuwon for 12th place in a loss to the Los Angeles Lakers. Now that Durant has achieved this milestone, the question that remains is how high can Kevin Durant get on the all-time scoring list before his time in the NBA is up?
When speaking after the game against Portland, Durant spoke about passing Hayes for 11th all-time in scoring and mentioned how much of an honor it was to be among the greats of the game who helped mold the NBA into what it is.
"To be amongst the greatest of the greats of this game is pretty cool… I just got to keep going.”
Kevin Durant on passing Elvin Hayes in scoring for 11th all time 🙌
(via @NBA)pic.twitter.com/SgiYD8Zpow
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) November 22, 2023
Kevin Durant has gotten this far with his exceptional three-point shooting, free throw shooting, and being one of the greatest mid-range shooters in NBA history. He also happens to be one of the most efficient small forwards in NBA history. With this information, we will determine where Durant can end up by the time he is ready to call it a career. Realistically, the 35-year-old Durant has five seasons or less to move up the list as far as he possibly can. So, how far exactly is that? Let’s find out.
This is how many points Kevin Durant will score before the end of his career.
2023-24 Season
As it stands right now, Kevin Durant sits at 27,331 after 31 points in a win over the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday Night. This brings Durant to pass Elvin Hayes for 11th place and within 78 points of Moses Malone to finally crack the top 10.
So far, during the very early stages of 2023-24, Kevin Durant is averaging 31.4 points per game on 50.8% shooting from the field. Over the last few seasons, Durant has struggled to stay on the court for more than 55 games after returning to the court following his Achilles injury in 2019. Given his injury history and age, it is only right that we give him 60 games to stay healthy and play rather than being optimistic and giving him more games played than in the last three seasons of his career.
With this information, that means Kevin Durant would still move his way up the all-time scoring list in easy fashion. His scoring average of 31.4 points per game for 46 more games would bring his season total to 1,884 points. That total would give him 28,775 points which is not only enough to crack the top 10 by passing Moses Malone but it would also get him past Carmelo Anthony in ninth and Shaquille O’Neal’s spot in eighth.
Points Per Game: 31.4
Total Games Played: 60
Total Points: 1,884
Total Predicted Points For Kevin Durant: 28,775
2024-25 Season
After another season under his belt with the Phoenix Suns, Durant comes into the 2024-25 season as one of the most expensive players in the NBA making over $50 million. Another year older entering the season at 36, Durant will be expected to be the same player he was from 2023-24 regardless of his age as the Suns continue their pursuit of an NBA championship.
By this time, Durant’s game has completely evolved into 80% jump shots from the mid-range and from three. When you’re one of the best to ever do it in those two areas, the adaptation tends to be easy. All things considered, I believe Durant would be on the same pace for 50-55 games, so let us split the difference at 52 this time around.
I predict a slight drop in his points per game as well to right around 26.5. With the pace of 52 games at 26.5 points per game, that would give him a total of 1,378 points on the season, bringing him to 30,153 total career points. He would now be within striking distance of Wilt Chamberlain in seventh though and ready to jump him as well at some point.
Points Per Game: 26.5
Total Games Played: 52
Total Points: 1,378
Total Predicted Points For Kevin Durant: 30,153
2025-26 Season
After a productive and successful 2024-25 season, Durant takes the court once again at the age of 37. This time, his limitations are quite visible as the lower-leg injuries begin to catch up with him as he starts making his inevitable march toward 40 years old and the end of his NBA career.
With age and injury still creeping up on him, it is safe to assume that Durant’s maximum for games played on the season would be around 45. I do still expect him to be a productive offensive player relying on his jumpers to get his points as well as spending some time at the foul line. I do not think it’s outrageous to say that at this point in his career, Durant is still averaging 25.0 points per game.
With that production and with 42 games played, that means Durant would end his 2025-26 season with 31,203 total points. This would make him just the eighth player in NBA history to reach the 30,000 points mark but would prevent him from passing anyone on the NBA’s all-time scoring list on the season. He would now sit just 216 points behind Wilt Chamberlain for seventh in NBA history.
Points Per Game: 25.0
Total Games Played: 42
Total Points: 1,050
Total Predicted Points For Kevin Durant: 31,203
2026-27 Season
At 38 years old, Durant will sign his last contract in the NBA, a two-year deal to remain with the Suns through the end of his career. At 38 years old, Durant has begun to slow down even more than in recent seasons as the grind of the NBA season has caught up to his beaten and battered body.
Due to his physical limitations, Durant would only be good to go for half the season at 41 games. Despite everything working against him, Durant is still a valuable asset to Phoenix’s offense and good for 23.6 points per game. Even with Durant’s outstanding play, he cannot go more than 41 games on the season due to old injuries holding him back and new ones popping up.
With 23.6 points per game in 41 contests, Durant will muster 968 points in total on the season, putting him at 32,171 points in his career. With this kind of season, Durant would move firmly past Wilt Chamberlain on the NBA’s all-time scoring list for seventh place as well as Dirk Nowitzki for sixth. In just four seasons, Durant made his way from 13th to sixth and with one more season left, has his eyes set on the top five.
Points Per Game: 23.6
Total Games Played: 41
Total Points: 968
Total Predicted Points For Kevin Durant: 32,171
2027-28 Season
While initially pushed back on by fans who are still mad about something that happened over a decade ago, the Kevin Durant farewell season would be one filled with reliving memories and celebrating the career of one of the greatest players to ever grace the hardwood. Durant would be showered with gifts from opposing teams, as well as boos from some and cheers from others.
As for what he does on the court, I think it is safe to say his best years would be behind him as he makes his way through the gauntlet of one final NBA season. Durant would take the court for 35 games in Phoenix due to lingering issues from reaching 40 and physically being unable to handle the grind of more than that set amount of games.
Even with the limited time on the court, Durant turned back the clock to remain a 20.2 points per game scorer in his final season. The 707 points added to his total would give him 32,878 total points in his 21-year career. The points in his final season would be enough for him to pass Michael Jordan for fifth in NBA history but that is where his climb to the top would stop.
Points Per Game: 20.2
Total Games Played: 35
Total Points: 707
Total Predicted Points For Kevin Durant: 32,878
Where Will Kevin Durant End Up On The NBA’s All-Time Scoring List?
As you can see from my breakdown, I am not exactly confident in Kevin Durant’s ability to play at least 60 games again in his career. At 35 years old, Durant is trying to prolong his career as much as possible. He hasn’t played in over 55 games since 2018-19 before he tore his Achilles in the NBA Finals.
Being pessimistic about his odds of reaching 60 games, I still believe Durant will be one of the game’s best scorers right up until his retirement. If he stays on this current trajectory that I have laid out, he should have an easy time reaching at least Michael Jordan’s fifth spot on the all-time scoring list.
Of course, there are variables such as injuries that could prohibit him from reaching that point. On the contrary, he could also exceed the expectations I have of him and make his way into the Karl Malone, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and LeBron James range of scoring, or the top three. Regardless of where things end up for him, there is no doubt that Durant will cement his legacy as one of the greatest scorers in NBA history as a top 10 scorer before the 2023-24 season is over.
