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5 NBA Players That Could Break Stephen Curry's All-Time 3-Point Record

5 NBA Players That Could Break Stephen Curry's All-Time 3-Point Record

Now that we have a new three-point king, it’s time to start thinking about who is going to catch Stephen Curry. With the game tailored to three-point shooters, we are more likely to see more of the younger generation overtake the records that Reggie Miller and Ray Allen set in the past. Scoring 3,000 career three-pointers could eventually be not as special 10 years from now.

For now, Curry’s achievements are extremely special because he is a one-of-a-kind player that is going to finish with one-of-a-kind totals. However, we must acknowledge that some of our younger stars have a path that could see them pass Allen down the line. By the time Curry retires, who is the most likely player to break Curry’s all-time three-point record.


What The Future Record Could Be?

At his current pace, Curry is projected to finish this season with 3,242 three-pointers. Imagine if he kept up the same pace of shooting around 350 to 400 three-pointers each season. That would be close to about 5.0 per game. Given that he has only played 80 games two times in his career, let’s allow for five games missed each year assuming that he is healthy. That would be exactly 400 per year.

According to the advanced analytics, Curry is one pace to finish his career with 5,632 three-pointers if he plays until the age of 40 based on those variables. At the end of 2026-2027, which is the end of his recently signed extension, Curry would be 38 years old and own 5,242 threes. He would need two more seasons of at least 3.0 three-point field goals made for 65 games each.

Per Micah Adams of Sporting News:

“…So let's start there. Imagine that for the next five seasons after this, he continues to hit 5.0 per game. Given he's only played 80 games twice in 13 years, let's allow for five missed games each year during that stretch.

That's exactly 400 a year, which brings us to 5,242 by the end of the 2026-27 season when he would be 38 years old.

While the greatest shooter in NBA history should age just fine, even Father Time will eventually check in at the scorer's table. Could he play until he's 43? Vince Carter did it. Even if Curry is still out there in 2032, he's far more likely to camp out in corners for 25 minutes a night than dance around defenders with the ball on a string. Let's bump him down to 3.0 triples a night with 65-game seasons which adds on another 975……5,242 + 975 = 6,217.”

Let’s say that Curry will retire at the age of 40. For the sake of this measurement, that means he would average 195 per season and that would be 390 three-pointers in his last two seasons. He would have 5,924 three-pointers when he finishes his career. That now begs the question, who could break this? These five players have a long and realistic shot of potentially doing that one day.


Long Shot For Breaking 5,924


LaMelo Ball

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LaMelo Ball made 92 three-pointers during his rookie year in 51 games. Based on Ball’s resume this season, he makes the list by making 70 three-pointers through 24 games. Ball has missed time this season due to injuries, but let’s pretend that he is healthy for the whole season. If we were to estimate his total on Ball’s final three-point totals for a full season, he would come close to 210 if he played 72 games. That would put his total at 302 at the end of two seasons.

Ball is only 20 years old, so we have to consider that he has many more years to play. Let’s say that Ball has 20 more years to play which would give him a 22-year career in the league. 

Let's say Ball will average 3.5-4.0 three-pointers in the next 10 years, with 75 games per season, that would give him 2,800 at age of 32. If he can average 2.5-3.0 three-pointers next 10 years with 65 games per season, he would add around 1,800 three-pointers. With this being said, he would finish his career with 4,900 three-pointers. Not enough to beat Curry's record, but still solid to finish in top-5 all-time three-point leaders.

Total Three-Point Made Projection: 4,900


Donovan Mitchell

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Mitchell’s been trending towards improving his three-point game. Last year, Mitchell averaged 3.4 three-pointers per game, while he is hovering around 3.2 this year. At 25 years old, this is the best time to start entering his prime to up his three-point totals. For his career, Mitchell owns 810 three-pointers. Mitchell plays about 70 games each season, so if he follows this trajectory, he should have around 993 three-pointers by the end of this season.

Given that a player’s prime seasons are between 25 to 32, we can predict that Mitchell could average at least 4.0 three-pointers per season. For the sake of games, we will use 75 games per season. During his prime years, we are going to assume that Mitchell will go around 4.2 three-pointers made per game. For three of those years, Mitchell will go in the upper fours, or potential as high as 5.0 per game.

With 3,400 career threes and potentially eight years to play, we can assume that Mitchell would hover around 3.3-3.5 three-pointers for at least four more years. That gives Mitchell another 1,000 to his name with his final four seasons likely being around 2.5 threes per game. It’s a long shot, but Mitchell will probably score over 5,000 three-pointers in his career.

Total Three-Point Made Projection: 5,150


3 Players That Could Break Stephen Curry’s Record


3. Anthony Edwards

Credit: StarTribune

Credit: StarTribune

With youth and play on his side, Edwards is showing that he could be a three-point specialist as he continuously develops. For starters, Edwards is averaging 3.1 three-pointers per game this season. If he finishes out the year with this average, he will finish this season with around 225 three-pointers. Combine that with last year’s total of 171, and you would have a player with almost 400 threes at the age of 20 years old.

Assuming that Edwards develops, let’s say that Edwards averages close to 3.1 three-pointers before hitting his true prime years at the age of 25. If we add 1,075 threes for that five-year gap, that would bring him close to 1,500. Then, let’s say that Edwards makes an average of 4.0 to 5.0 threes per game during his prime years from age 25 to 32. Our prediction is that Edwards will have five seasons of at least 4.2 with three seasons of at least 5.1.

If you tack on the additional 2,300 three-pointers during those years, that gives Edwards about 3,800 career three-pointers with about eight years left in the league. Edwards would probably back down to about 3.0 threes per game for at least three more seasons, which puts him around 4,600. Then, if he finishes his career out with about 2.5 per game, he would be over 5,500. Assuming his career takes off and he becomes an All-Star player, Edwards could be a legit outside shooter when it’s all said and done.

Total Three-Point Made Projection: 5,600


2. Trae Young

Trae Young

Given the high volume of shots that Young takes, he has a shot to one day finish high in the all-time rankings. Combining that with his age, Young has many variables in his favor. First, Young is averaging 7.1 three-point attempts per game with an average of 2.5. Young is only 23 years old and owns 574 total three-pointers. If he continues the trend for this season, Young should finish the year with around 700 three-pointers in his career after this season.

Moving forward, Young has proven that he can make over 3 three-pointers per game (he averaged 3.5 three-pointers game in his second season). This year, Young is hovering around 2.9 three-pointers per game. Let’s say that Young starts to take off these next three seasons and averages 3.5 threes per game. Then, for seven seasons, he averages over 4.0 with three of those seasons being 5.0. If we followed that path, he would be close to 4,200 career threes before his age 33-season.

Assuming that Young stays healthy, we can figure that he would score over 3.0 the next three seasons to give him about 700 threes. With four years left, Young could be hovering around 2.0 to 2.5 threes per game, but those numbers will still net him close to 500 threes at the later stages of his career three-pointers

Total Three-Point Made Projection: 5,700


1. Luka Doncic

Credit: USATSI

Credit: USATSI

Right now, Doncic owns a made three-point field goals average of 2.7 per game. If Doncic played a minimum of 75 games per season, which is not out of the realm of possibility because of how durable he is, and played for 20 years, he would finish with about 4,000 career three-pointers. Given that his age is 22 years old, it feels like he is going to surpass that total.

Curry’s career average is 4.2 per game. As Doncic continues to play and improve, that need is going to start moving in the right direction. Curry’s first three seasons in the league saw him average 2.1 three-point field goals per game and the last time was at the end of his age 23 seasons. Assuming that Doncic goes just one more year around 2.7, he would still have a better start than Curry.

Let’s say that Doncic starts with about 800 threes going into next season. Before he enters his prime years, he adds on two more years of around 3.8 threes per game, which would bring his total to about 1,300. Then, let’s say Doncic gives about five seasons with about 4.5 threes per game and then three seasons of about 5.3. These are all real numbers and this would bring his total to about 3,000 threes during this span and a total of 3,800.

Doncic’s totals would dip the next four seasons, but that’s okay because the 4.3 average the next five years would put him around 5,600. In his final two years, Doncic’s 2.0 to 3.0 threes per game would likely net him at least 300 threes as he closes his career out with 5,900. Some of this sounds repetitive to Young’s diagnosis, but the difference is that Doncic is the better player. Doncic is more likely to go on a streak of making at least four or five threes per game because Doncic is taking more shots from outside. Based on the two resumes, if we had to pick the future of outside shooting, all the variables point in Doncic’s favor.

Total Three-Point Made Projection: 5,900


Conclusion

As you can see, it would be very tough to break Stephen Curry's all-time 3-point record. It's not impossible, but it will be very tough. In order to even come close, those players must average at least 5 made three-point field goals for a few seasons, and that is only possible if the game evolves in the future. Luka Doncic will be the closest one to break Stephen Curry's record, and Trae Young could finish 3rd on the all-time list. Only time will tell, but next 15 years we can be sure that Stephen Curry's record will remain unbreakable.

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