The Detroit Pistons host the Miami Heat at Little Caesars Arena on January 1, with tipoff set for 7:00 PM ET.
The Pistons come in at 25-8, sitting 1st in the East, while the Heat are 18-15, sitting 7th in the East, and they bring a three-game winning streak into this one.
These teams have already played once this season, and it turned into a pure points-fest: Pistons 138, Heat 135 on November 29.
For the headline guys, Cade Cunningham has averaged 26.5 points, 9.7 assists, and 6.2 rebounds this season. On the Heat side, Norman Powell has been the leading scorer at 23.8 points per game, while Bam Adebayo has posted 18.0 points and 9.5 rebounds per game.
Injury Report
Pistons
Tobias Harris: Doubtful (left hip soreness)
Caris LeVert: Out (left knee soreness)
Heat
Tyler Herro: Out (right big toe contusion)
Pelle Larsson: Out (right ankle sprain)
Terry Rozier: Out (not with team)
Simone Fontecchio: Questionable (left ankle injury)
Bam Adebayo: Available (lower back soreness)
Nikola Jovic: Available (right elbow contusion/laceration)
Dru Smith: Available (right elbow soreness)
Kel’el Ware: Available (right quadriceps contusion)
Why The Pistons Have The Advantage
This matchup still starts with Cunningham, because his size and pace basically decide whether the Pistons get clean offense or have to grind for it. His 26.5 and 9.7 aren’t empty numbers either. He plays like a guy who knows where the weak spot is on every trip, and the Heat are a team that punishes hesitation. If Cunningham stays decisive, the Pistons’ whole attack stays on schedule.
The biggest pressure point for the Heat, though, is what happens behind him.
Jalen Duren has been a constant rim problem at 18.1 points and 10.8 rebounds per game, shooting 63.8% from the field. That matters a ton in this matchup because the Heat are missing backcourt bodies, and when teams get thinner at guard, they usually help more. If the Heat send extra attention toward Cunningham to keep him out of the paint, Duren becomes the “make them pay” guy on rolls, dump-offs, and second-chance finishes.
Then you’ve got three role pieces who can quietly decide the night.
Ausar Thompson gives the Pistons athletic juice on both ends, and he’s averaging 11.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.6 assists. If he turns this into a transition game with deflections and run-outs, the Heat’s half-court defense doesn’t get to settle.
Isaiah Stewart has been a legit impact big in his minutes: 10.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks per game, while shooting 52.5% from the field and 37.5% from three. That spacing matters even more if the Heat try to crowd the lane, because Stewart can make them choose between helping and giving up clean looks.
And if Harris sits, Marcus Sasser becomes even more important as a bench swing. He’s at 5.2 points and 2.4 assists in limited minutes, but he’s also shooting 57.1% from the field and 55.6% from three. One hot stretch from him can flip the “non-Cunningham” minutes, which is usually where games like this get stolen.
Why The Heat Have The Advantage
The Heat’s case is simple: they’ve got multiple reliable scorers even with Tyler Herro out, and they can win the “who gets easier buckets” fight if their wings show up.
Powell has been the headline because 23.8 points per game on 48.1% from the field and 40.0% from three is star-level scoring. If the Pistons give him space in any kind of drop coverage, he’ll punish it. If they blitz him, the Heat get to play four-on-three, and that’s where Bam comes in.
Adebayo’s 18.0 points and 9.5 rebounds matter here because he can keep the Heat steady when the game gets physical. And with him available, the Heat can lean into lineups that defend, rebound, and still generate enough offense.
Now the three “other guys” to watch, because they’re the difference between “competitive” and “Heat steal it.”
Andrew Wiggins has averaged 16.4 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 3.0 assists while shooting 48.6% from the field and 40.7% from three. If he hits open threes, the Pistons can’t load up as aggressively on Powell.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. has been a glue guy with real production: 16.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 4.8 assists, shooting 52.6% from the field. He’s the type who keeps possessions alive when the first action dies.
And Kel’el Ware has been a serious interior presence at 12.6 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks per game. If he controls the glass or forces Duren into tougher finishes, the Heat can swing the possession battle without even shooting lights-out.
Pistons vs. Heat Prediction
This feels like another high-scoring game unless both teams get ice-cold. The Pistons have the best player on the floor in Cunningham, and their size gives them a steady baseline. But the Heat have more shot-making across the wing spots right now, and that’s how road teams steal one.
I’m still leaning Pistons at home, barely.
Prediction: Pistons 120, Heat 116
