The Warriors host the Clippers at Chase Center on Monday, March 2, at 10:00 PM ET.
The Warriors are 31-29 and eighth in the West, with the Clippers at 28-31 and ninth. The home-road context is clean: the Warriors are 19-12 at home, while the Clippers are 13-18 on the road.
The Warriors last played Saturday, a 129-101 loss to the Lakers, while the Clippers arrive after a 137-117 win over the Pelicans on Sunday. These teams have split the season series 1-1, with the Warriors winning 98-79 on October 28 and the Clippers winning 103-102 on January 5.
For the Warriors, Brandin Podziemski is at 12.2 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.7 assists, and Moses Moody is giving them 12.0 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.6 assists.
For the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard is putting up 27.9 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.7 assists, with John Collins adding 13.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 1.0 assists, although he’s out of the rotation again.
This is a straight play-in positioning game, and both rotations are thin enough that the possession battle is going to decide the tone early.
Injury Report
Warriors
Stephen Curry: Out (right patellofemoral pain syndrome)
Jimmy Butler III: Out (right ACL surgery)
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (general illness)
Will Richard: Out (right ankle sprain)
LJ Cryer: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Seth Curry: Out (left sciatic nerve irritation)
Gary Payton II: Questionable (left ankle impingement)
Clippers
Bradley Beal: Out (left hip fracture)
John Collins: Out (neck soreness)
Why The Warriors Have The Advantage
The Warriors’ identity is still the three-point game, and the volume is unmatched. They attempt 45.4 threes per game (1st) and make 16.3 per game (1st), which is the cleanest path to separation when you are missing primary creation.
That approach is supported by ball movement, not isolation. The Warriors average 29.3 assists per game (3rd) and lead the league in assists per made field goal (0.710, 1st), which matters because it forces multiple rotations instead of letting the Clippers load up on one action.
The matchup number that jumps off the page is the Clippers’ three-point defense. They allow 36.8% from three (26th), and that is dangerous against a team that is built to generate 45-plus attempts even on a normal night.
The Warriors also create a real possession edge with pressure. They force 15.9 opponent turnovers per game (4th), which is how they manufacture points without living at the free-throw line. If that shows up, it feeds directly into their best shot profile: quick threes before the defense is set.
There is one clear risk inside the same possession story. The Warriors turn it over 15.5 times per game (27th), so if they get sloppy, the three-point volume advantage can disappear because they are simply not getting enough shots up.
Why The Clippers Have The Advantage
The Clippers’ case starts with defense and game control. They allow 112.3 points per game (9th), and they play at 100.0 possessions per game (29th), which is a combination that can drag a high-volume three-point team into fewer total attempts.
Their scoring is not built around threes, and that is a feature here. The Clippers attempt 34.0 threes per game (22nd), so they are comfortable winning without a 3-point attempt race. In a matchup where the Warriors want the scoreboard to swing on volume, the Clippers’ slower profile can keep the game in a tighter band.
Free throws are the biggest offensive lever. The Clippers rank first in free-throw percentage (83.2%) and second in free throws attempted per field goal attempt (0.301), and they make 20.7 free throws per game (4th). If the whistle turns this into a stop-start game, that is the most reliable form of offense on the floor.
Shot quality is also a real advantage for them. The Clippers are at 55.4% effective field goal percentage (7th) and 47.9% from the field (6th), which is a steady baseline when possessions tighten late.
The other possession note is that the Clippers are cleaner with the ball. They commit 14.9 turnovers per game (20th), and in a matchup where the Warriors need extra possessions to maximize the three-point math, simply avoiding giveaways is a way to keep that math from exploding.
X-Factors
Gary Payton II is the Warriors’ on-ball swing if he plays. Payton is producing 5.9 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 1.6 assists, and his role in this matchup is disruption: pressure the ball, shrink passing windows, and create the kind of live-ball turnovers that turn into early threes. If he is limited by the ankle, the Warriors lose their best “chaos” defender in a game where turnovers are the easiest offense available.
Gui Santos is the Warriors’ energy wing who decides whether their non-shooting minutes survive. Santos is at 6.8 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 1.7 assists, and his job is doing the connective stuff: rebound, cut, and keep the ball moving so the Warriors can still get to 45-plus attempts. If Santos wins the effort plays, the Warriors can stay in their style even without their stars.
Pat Spencer is the control knob for the Warriors’ turnover problem. Spencer is putting up 6.3 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 3.5 assists, and his role is simple: run the offense cleanly, get the Warriors into their sets, and avoid the empty possessions that kill a volume-three team. If Spencer keeps the ball secure, the Warriors’ shot volume edge gets real.
Kris Dunn is the Clippers’ point-of-attack tone-setter. Dunn is averaging 7.9 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 3.6 assists, and in this matchup his value is making the Warriors work to initiate offense, especially against a lineup that is already missing creators. If Dunn turns those first actions into late-clock possessions, the Warriors’ three-point quality drops even if the attempts stay high.
Derrick Jones Jr. is the Clippers’ defensive athlete who can swing the non-Leonard minutes. Jones is at 10.9 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 1.3 assists, and his role is guarding across positions while turning rebounds and deflections into points. If he is finishing in space and getting a few transition buckets, it reduces the need for the Clippers to win a half-court shot-making battle every trip.
Jordan Miller is the Clippers’ bench scoring pressure point. Miller is producing 9.3 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 1.9 assists, and his role is keeping the offense functional when the Warriors try to speed the game up with pressure. If Miller can hit open looks and punish rotations, the Clippers can keep their slow-control plan without bleeding points when the starters sit.
Prediction
I’m taking the Warriors because the three-point math is overwhelming when it is paired with the matchup. They attempt 45.4 threes per game (1st) and make 16.3 (1st), and the Clippers allow 36.8% from three (26th). If the Warriors keep their turnovers from spiking, they should get enough clean looks to win the shot-volume battle at home.
Prediction: Warriors 114, Clippers 109
