TD Garden hosts this game on Friday at 7:30 p.m. ET. The Celtics are 54-26 and second in the East. The Pelicans are 26-54 and 11th in the West.
The Celtics are 28-11 at home, and the Pelicans are 9-30 on the road. The Celtics are coming off a 112-106 loss to the Knicks, while the Pelicans are coming off a 156-137 win over the Jazz, which ended an eight-game losing streak and set a franchise record for points in a game. The season series is 1-0 for the Celtics after a 122-90 win in October.
There is still something at stake here for the home side. The Celtics missed a chance to lock up the No. 2 seed on Thursday, so this is the next opportunity to finish that job.
The Pelicans have no playoff path left, but they did show real life in the Jazz game, and Jeremiah Fears gave them a reminder that they can still create problems if the opponent is sloppy.
Jaylen Brown remains the main scorer for the Celtics at 28.8 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game. Payton Pritchard has also been a major piece at 17.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 5.1 assists.
For the Pelicans, Zion Williamson has averaged 21.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 3.2 assists, while Fears sits at 13.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 3.4 assists. That is the talent outline, even if the injury report changes how much of it actually appears on the floor.
Injury Report
Celtics
Jayson Tatum: Out (right Achilles repair)
Jaylen Brown: Questionable (left Achilles tendinitis)
Sam Hauser: Probable (low back spasm)
Neemias Queta: Probable (right toe sprain)
Derrick White: Probable (right knee contusion)
Pelicans
Zion Williamson: Out (right knee injury management)
Dejounte Murray: Out (left hand contusion)
Trey Murphy III: Out (right ankle sprain)
Saddiq Bey: Out (rest)
Herbert Jones: Out (rest)
Karlo Matkovic: Out (low back injury management)
Bryce McGowens: Out (right small toe fracture)
Yves Missi: Out (right hand/finger sprain)
Why The Celtics Have The Advantage
The first edge is obvious and large. The Celtics are a top-tier two-way team. They rank second in offensive rating at 120.7, fourth in defensive rating at 112.8, and fourth in net rating at plus-7.9. The Pelicans are far behind that level. They rank 20th in offensive rating at 114.4, 23rd in defensive rating at 118.6, and 21st in net rating at minus-4.2. That is the difference between a team closing the season with playoff seeding on the line and a team playing out the schedule.
The shot profile also points clearly to the Celtics. They are shooting 36.5% from three and are one of the league’s better spacing teams. Even when the offense stalls, they can still get back to stable possessions through size, screening, and kick-out shooting.
The Pelicans are at 34.9% from three, which ranks 24th. That matters in this matchup because the easiest way to threaten the Celtics is to stretch their defense and make them rotate over and over. The Pelicans have not done that consistently enough this season.
Rebounding is another real advantage for the home side. The Celtics are at 46.4 rebounds per game, and their frontcourt has become more stable with Neemias Queta taking on a bigger role. Queta is averaging 10.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks, and he gives the Celtics a clean interior option against a Pelicans group that is already missing Yves Missi and could be badly outmanned near the rim. That does not guarantee dominance in the paint, but it raises the floor of the Celtics’ performance.
Why The Pelicans Have The Advantage
The Pelicans do have one real path, and it starts with pace and pressure. Their pace is 100.21, which is on the faster side, and they are averaging 8.9 steals per game. They are not a disciplined half-court team, but they can create a messy game. That matters on the second night of a back-to-back for the Celtics. If the Pelicans can turn this into a loose game with more transition and more broken possessions, they have a better chance to stay attached.
There is also a recent reason to take their offense seriously for one night. Against the Jazz, the Pelicans scored 156 points, Fears had 40, Jordan Poole had 34, and several young players played with freedom. That does not mean the same thing will happen here. The Celtics are a much better defense. But it does show what the Pelicans can look like when the guards get downhill, and the supporting pieces run hard around them.
Another small edge for the Pelicans is psychological, not statistical. The pressure is on the Celtics. They are the team expected to win, and they are the team trying to finish the seeding race cleanly after dropping the Knicks game. The Pelicans are free here. That can matter for a quarter or two, especially if the Celtics are short-handed again or if Brown and White are limited. The issue is simple: freedom helps, but talent gaps still decide most games.
X-Factors
Neemias Queta is the first Celtics x-factor. He is averaging 10.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 1.7 assists while shooting 65.1% from the field. This matchup fits him. The Pelicans are missing interior size, and Queta does not need the ball much to affect the game. He screens, finishes, rebounds, and protects the rim. If he owns the paint minutes, the Celtics will have a steady advantage even without Tatum.
Sam Hauser is the second one. He is averaging 9.0 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.4 assists while shooting 38.6% from three. His role is clear. The Pelicans will need to help inside because of their injuries, and Hauser is the type of spacer who punishes that immediately. If he gets clean catch-and-shoot looks and makes them early, the game can open fast.
Derik Queen is the Pelicans x-factor. He is averaging 11.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 3.7 assists as a rookie, and that passing is a key factor. He is one of the few Pelicans bigs who can keep a possession alive without just finishing at the rim. Against a defense like the Celtics, that extra decision-making has value. If Queen can score enough to force help and then make the next pass, the Pelicans can stay functional offensively.
Micah Peavy is the other one. He is averaging 4.1 points, 1.9 rebounds, and 1.0 assists, which is a small line, but his recent 20-point game against the Jazz was his best one. The Pelicans need another wing who can defend, run, and finish simple plays. They do not need a star game from him. They need him to hold up in his minutes and make the Celtics work on both ends.
Prediction
The Celtics should win this game, and they should win it without much drama if they are serious from the start. The gap in team quality is too wide. The Celtics are second in offensive rating, fourth in defensive rating, and fourth in net rating. The Pelicans are 20th, 23rd, and 21st in those same categories. Add the injury report, add the first meeting, and this looks like a bad spot for the Pelicans.
Prediction: Celtics 121, Pelicans 104
