The Lakers host the Suns on Friday, April 10, at Crypto.com Arena. The Lakers come into the game at 51-29, tied for fourth in the West by record, while the Suns are 44-36 and sit seventh.
The Lakers are 26-13 at home. The Suns are 19-20 on the road. The Lakers also enter this game after a 119-103 win over the Warriors last night, while the Suns beat the Mavericks 112-107 on Wednesday.
The season series still leans toward the Suns, who are 3-1 against the Lakers and have badly won the three games they took. Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves are out for the rest of the regular season with a hamstring strain and an oblique strain, respectively, while the NBA’s early official report also listed Devin Booker out for the Suns.
Here is how the Lakers can still beat the Suns tonight with LeBron James as the lone star.
1. The Lakers Can Still Produce Efficient Offense
The first reason is simple. The Lakers are not built like a one-way, one-creator team. Even after losing Doncic and Reaves, the base structure of their offense still holds up because the shot profile is strong.
For the season, the Lakers rank 10th in offensive rating at 116.9, second in effective field goal percentage at 57.2%, first in restricted-area field goal percentage at 74.2%, and third in mid-range field goal percentage at 44.9%. Even in games without Doncic or Reaves, they have still posted offensive ratings of 115.8 and 116.3, respectively, which are not elite but still functional.
That is the path here. The Lakers do not need to replace Doncic and Reaves on a possession-for-possession basis with shot creation. They need to manufacture enough quality looks through LeBron James as the hub, Deandre Ayton as the vertical target, and their wings as quick-decision finishers.
That template already showed up on Thursday night, when the Lakers scored 119 against the Warriors without those two stars. LeBron had 26 points, 8 rebounds, and 11 assists, while Ayton finished with 21 points on 9-for-11 shooting.
The Lakers can still run empty-corner pick and roll, elbow delay action, and short-roll touch passes through Ayton without needing a heavy diet of isolation. Against a Suns defense that ranks 10th, not first, the Lakers do not need genius offense. They need a clean offense. There is a difference.
2. LeBron Is A Master At Setting The Pace
This is the biggest point in the entire piece. When Doncic and Reaves are out, LeBron does not just become the leading scorer. He becomes the full offensive system. The numbers show he can still do that.
In games without Doncic this season, LeBron has averaged 21.5 points, 10.5 assists, and 7.4 rebounds. Across the full season, the Lakers are 37-21 when LeBron plays, with a 119.2 offensive rating and a positive 2.1 net rating in those minutes. That does not mean every possession will look pretty. It means the offense still has command, sequence, and pace when he is on the floor.
The tactical value comes from how LeBron bends coverage before the play even starts. If the Suns switch, the Lakers can use LeBron as the screener, force a smaller defender onto him, and flow directly into a post touch or middle drive.
If the Suns hedge or show two to the ball, LeBron can hit the release valve and create a 4-on-3 with Rui Hachimura, averaging 11.3 points and hitting over 43.7% from deep (3.8 3PA per game). If they stay home, he can simply call for Ayton, get downhill, and force weak-side help from Luke Kennard’s side, making defenders pick their poison, as he’s the league’s three-point leader at 47.7% from deep, and scoring 9.0 points per night in his Lakers stint.
That is still elite offense, even if the scorer changes. LeBron also proved one night earlier that he still has enough burst to own the tempo for short stretches. Against the Warriors, he was efficient, under control, and precise. For one game, against a Suns team without Booker on the early injury report, that may be enough to decide the half-court battle.
3. The Lakers Can Put More Pressure At The Rim
This matchup starts at the basket. The Lakers are the best restricted-area finishing team in the league at 74.2%, and that is not just a Doncic stat. It is a team identity. LeBron still gets downhill. Ayton is a constant lob, seal, and dump-off option. Hachimura remains an efficient secondary finisher and elite three-point shooter, which lets the Lakers keep size on the floor without killing spacing.
Ayton, meanwhile, is shooting 67.2% from the field for the season, averaging 12.4 points and 8.0 rebounds, and in 11 games without Doncic, he has climbed to 13.9 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks. That gives the Lakers a very clear interior plan even without their two usual perimeter engines.
That interior plan is especially relevant because the Suns are not an elite rim-denial team. This Suns team ranks 16th in opponent field goal percentage at the rim this season. They do rank 8th in opponent points per game, but the paint is their main problem.
So even though the Suns’ overall defensive rating is solid at 114.0, there is still room to attack the paint with force and repetition. The Lakers should not play this game as a jump-shooting contest. They should make it a paint-touch game.
That means early post seals for Ayton, LeBron-Ayton pick and roll, post-ups against cross-matches, and weak-side cuts once the Suns load up to the ball. If the Lakers get to the front of the rim often enough, they can create the one thing undermanned teams need most: efficient offense without needing high-difficulty shotmaking.
4. The Lakers Can Make This A Half-Court Game
The Suns are good, but they are not a terrifying offensive machine this season. They rank 17th in offensive rating at 115.5 while being 25th in points scored per game, 11th in three-point percentage at 36.2%, and they average 24.7 assists per game with a 12.7% turnover percentage.
Those are respectable numbers, not overwhelming ones. With Booker listed out on the NBA’s early official report, the Suns lose their cleanest late-clock creator and their best blend of pull-up scoring and table-setting. That should change how the Lakers defend this game. Instead of trying to win with chaos, they should try to win with friction.
Friction, in this case, means shrinking the floor and forcing the Suns into longer reads. The Lakers have enough wing size to do that if they stay disciplined. They do not need to blitz every ball screen. They need to flatten the first action, stunt from the nail, tag the roller early, and force the Suns into second and third options late in the clock.
The Suns have already shot a blistering 52.6% from the field and 41.3% from three in the season series, while the Lakers have shot only 32.8% from three in those four games. That kind of split is a major part of why this team leads 3-1.
It is also the kind of split that can move in one game. If the Lakers simply lower the Suns’ shot quality from “clean” to “contested enough,” the numbers from the first four meetings do not have to repeat.
5. The Odds Can Finally Flip In The Lakers’ Favor
This is the least glamorous reason, but it may be the most important. The Lakers do not need to be the better team on paper over a seven-game sample tonight. They need to win the math for one game at home. And there are signs that it is possible.
The Lakers are 26-13 at home. The Suns are 19-20 on the road. Over the last 10 games, the Lakers are 6-4, and the Suns are 5-5. The Lakers also just scored 119 in a road win over the Warriors without Doncic and Reaves, which is a reminder that the floor of their offense is not as low as it looks when you only scan the injury report.
The basketball version of that math is straightforward. The Lakers need average three-point shooting, a manageable turnover night, and a big LeBron playmaking game. They do not need 40 from him. They need command. If LeBron gets the Suns into rotation, if Ayton punishes those rotations at the rim, and if Hachimura, Kennard, and the other wings hit enough catch-and-shoot chances, the Lakers can get to a workable offensive number.
On the other end, they need to turn the game into a possession-by-possession half-court contest, because the Suns have not been a top-tier offense even before accounting for Booker’s injury status. Dillon Brooks has been on a tear this year, but if bothered enough with Jarred Vanderbilt’s length, or even Bronny James’ effort, he could struggle, as his efficiency this year is at 43.6% from the field, and under 35% from three.
The Suns may still be favored by matchup memory because they are up 3-1 in the season series. But one-game math is different from season-series math. The Lakers have enough structure, enough rim pressure, and still enough LeBron to win this one anyway.
That is the real case for the Lakers tonight. The ceiling is lower without Doncic and Reaves. Nobody should pretend otherwise. But the offense is still structurally sound, LeBron is still a possession organizer, the Lakers still finish at the rim better than almost anyone, and the Suns have not dominated them through some unbeatable schematic edge.
They have mostly won because they shot better and controlled the shot-quality margin. If the Lakers swing those two things back at home tonight, this is absolutely a winnable game.
