The Lakers host the Mavericks at Crypto.com Arena on Thursday, February 12, at 10:00 PM ET.
The Lakers are 32-21 (6th in the West). The Mavericks are 19-34 (12th in the West).
The Lakers have been solid at home (14-10). The Mavericks have struggled on the road (5-18).
The Lakers last played the Thunder on Monday, losing 119-110. The Mavericks just dropped a 120-111 game to the Suns on Tuesday.
This is the third meeting. The Lakers lead the season series 2-0, winning 129-119 on November 28 and 116-110 on January 24.
For the Lakers, LeBron James is producing 21.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 6.9 assists per game, while Austin Reaves is giving them 25.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 6.0 assists, and scored 38 points in the first meeting.
For the Mavericks, Cooper Flagg leads them with 20.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.1 assists, and P.J. Washington is posting 14.0 points and 7.1 rebounds.
The hook is simple: the Lakers are fighting in the top-six race, and the Mavericks are trying to stop the bleeding before the break, but the injury list is forcing both teams into weird rotations.
Injury Report
Lakers
Luka Doncic: Out (left hamstring strain)
Deandre Ayton: Questionable (right knee soreness)
Mavericks
Cooper Flagg: Out (left midfoot sprain)
Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot surgery)
Naji Marshall: Questionable (left foot strain)
Caleb Martin: Questionable (left ankle sprain)
Ryan Nembhard: Doubtful (two-way, G-League)
Why The Lakers Have The Advantage
The first edge is that the Lakers can win the efficiency battle even when the spacing looks ugly. They’re scoring 115.9 points per game (14th in the league) while shooting 49.9% from the field, which is elite shot-making for a team that isn’t living on threes.
The second piece is matchup-specific: the Mavericks’ defense has been leaky all year, and the numbers back it up. They’re allowing 117.3 points per game, and their defensive rating sits at 18th league-wide entering this matchup. That’s the kind of profile that turns one bad stretch into a 12-2 run fast.
The Lakers also don’t need a monster three-point night to create separation, because the Mavericks aren’t built to punish them from deep right now. The Mavericks are hitting 34.3% from three (22nd in the league), and the Lakers can live with a lot of those possessions ending in contested threes if they keep the ball out of the paint.
There’s a real “possession tax” risk for the Lakers, though, and that’s why the ball security matters so much in this matchup. They’re coughing it up 15.2 times per game, which ranks 5th-most in the league. If they don’t clean that up, they’re gifting a Mavericks team that desperately needs easy points.
Still, the biggest practical advantage is that the Lakers already know how to win this matchup without perfect conditions. They’re 2-0 in the series, and in those two Mavericks losses, the Lakers got enough stops and enough quality looks to control the game late.
Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage
Start with the one thing the Mavericks can hang their hat on: they can score at a league-average level even when the roster is messy. They’re putting up 114.1 points per game, but in their last 10 contests, they’ve dropped to 22nd in offensive rating.
That matters because the Lakers’ defense hasn’t been reliable. They’re allowing 116.3 points per game, which ranks 18th in the league by fewest points allowed. So if the Mavericks can just avoid empty trips, there’s a real path to hanging around deep into the fourth.
The “how” is the shot profile. The Lakers are only at 35.0% from three (19th in the league), so if the Mavericks can pack the paint, make the Lakers play a little slower, and force mid-range decisions, they can keep this from turning into a math problem.
The other way the Mavericks steal possessions is on the glass and through activity plays. They’re at 45.0 rebounds per game, and their total rebound volume sits at the top of the league (9th). With the Lakers potentially shaky at center because of Ayton’s knee status, extra looks are the cleanest way to survive the scoring droughts that tend to hit road teams.
And even though the Mavericks’ road record is ugly (5-18), the broader context is that this group is desperate. They’ve been sliding hard, and urgency can tighten the execution when the alternative is another long flight with another loss stacked on top of it.
X-Factors
Rui Hachimura is the Lakers swing spacer because he changes the geometry without needing the ball. He’s been used as a bench scoring lever lately (10.2 points per game and 42% from three), and the Mavericks have historically been a comfortable matchup for him (12.9 points and 4.3 rebounds across 15 career games). If he hits early threes, it forces the Mavericks to stop loading two bodies at the nail on every James drive.
Luke Kennard is the “one guy who can flip a quarter” piece. He’s averaging 7.9 points and shooting 49.7% from three this season, and that’s exactly why the Lakers traded for him. The Mavericks don’t have a lot of margin defensively, so if Kennard turns a couple broken possessions into instant threes, it tilts the whole shot-quality battle.
Max Christie is the Mavericks role guy who can keep them afloat when the offense stalls. He’s giving them 13.1 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 2.2 assists on the season, and he’s historically had real comfort against the Lakers (14.5 points per game in four career games). If his pull-up threes are falling, it punishes the Lakers for helping too aggressively at the nail.
Marvin Bagley III is the Mavericks’ physical swing because he can win minutes with rim pressure and second-chance work even without plays being called for him. He’s producing 10.3 points and 5.9 rebounds in 19.5 minutes per game while finishing 62.1% from the field. If he’s generating extra possessions, that’s how the Mavericks survive the cold stretches.
Prediction
I’m taking the Lakers. The Mavericks’ defense (117.3 defensive rating) hasn’t shown it can get consistent stops, and the Lakers’ baseline efficiency (115.9 points per game, 49.9% from the field) gives them a cleaner scoring floor at home. The only real scare is the turnover problem (15.2 per game, 5th-most), but I trust the Lakers’ creators to manage the game late.
Prediction: Lakers 122, Mavericks 109
