The Dallas Mavericks host the Houston Rockets at American Airlines Center on Saturday night, and this one feels like a reality check game for both sides. The Rockets roll in at 21-10, fourth in the West, while the Mavs sit at 12-23, 13th in the West, and they badly need a clean performance after a rough stretch.
They’ve already split the season series 1-1. The Rockets took the first matchup 110-102 on November 3, then the Mavs answered with a 122-109 win on December 6.
Star-wise, the big three for the Rockets is real and it’s dangerous. Kevin Durant is at 25.4 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game. Alperen Sengun has been a problem all season with 22.7 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 6.8 assists. Amen Thompson brings the chaos with 18.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 5.3 assists, and that stat line screams “he’s involved in everything.”
The Mavs counter with a very different vibe. Cooper Flagg leads them at 19.2 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.1 assists. Anthony Davis is still the stabilizer with 20.1 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 2.8 assists, and both could shock the Rockets again as they did in the latest matchup between both franchises.
Injury Report
Rockets
Fred VanVleet: Out (right knee, ACL repair)
Steven Adams: Questionable (right ankle sprain)
Mavs
Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot surgery)
Dante Exum: Out (right knee surgery)
Why The Mavs Have The Advantage
The Mavs’ advantage is basically their path to one specific type of game: slow it down, make it physical, and turn it into a half-court grind where shot-making and poise matter more than depth.
Even in a down year, the Mavs still put up 113.6 points per game and move the ball at 25.2 assists. They also block shots at a solid rate (5.9 per game), and that’s a big deal against a team that loves attacking downhill and living at the rim.
The other thing is home court has still been “fine” despite everything. The Mavs are 9-10 at home, and that’s not impressive, but it’s at least proof they can win in this building even when the season looks messy.
The real leverage point is this: the Rockets can play wild. When their energy dips, they can get a little loose with pace and decision-making. If the Mavs can keep it close into the fourth, that’s where the game tightens up, and suddenly every Durant jumper feels heavier, every Sengun touch becomes a chess match, and the crowd gets involved.
Why The Rockets Have The Advantage
The Rockets’ advantage is simple: they’ve been the better team on both ends, and the numbers don’t really argue with that.
They’re scoring 120.5 points per game while allowing 111.5, and they’re doing it with a 49.0% field goal mark and a serious rebounding edge at 48.7 boards per night. That’s a bully profile. Add 25.7 assists per game, 8.8 steals, and a four-game win streak, and you’re looking at a team that’s playing fast, confident, and connected.
They’ve also traveled well. The Rockets are 11-8 on the road, which matters here because this isn’t some “show up and hope” team right now. They’ve been handling business in tough environments, and with the Mavs missing key creators, the Rockets can turn this into a pressure game where every possession feels like a chore.
If the Rockets control the glass and keep forcing extra possessions, the Mavs are going to feel it fast. The margin for error is already thin without their injured guys, and the Rockets are exactly the type of team that squeezes you until you crack.
X-Factors
Klay Thompson is the first swing piece. He’s averaging 11.1 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 1.3 assists per game, and if he hits early threes, it changes the spacing for everything the Mavs want to run.
Max Christie matters a ton with the backcourt depleted. He’s at 12.0 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game, and his two-way minutes can swing the “survive the non-star minutes” battle, especially if he can pressure the ball and still give you enough scoring to keep the offense alive.
Daniel Gafford becomes even more important with Dereck Lively II out. He’s averaging 8.2 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 1.0 assists per game, and his rim running plus vertical defense is basically the cleanest way for the Mavs to manufacture paint points without over-dribbling.
On the Rockets side, Jabari Smith Jr. can tilt the matchup if he wins the forward minutes and punishes switches. He’s putting up 15.8 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 1.9 assists per game, and when he’s aggressive, the Rockets’ offense gets scary fast because it forces constant rotations.
Tari Eason is the “mess up your night” guy. He’s at 11.7 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 1.4 assists per game, and he can tilt the turnover battle with pure chaos defense. In a matchup like this, two or three extra transition possessions might be the entire margin.
Reed Sheppard is the last big swing. He’s averaging 13.5 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game, and if the Rockets’ bench wins the scoring minutes, the Mavs probably won’t have enough juice late to keep up.
Prediction
The Rockets have the cleaner profile, the better record, and more ways to win, and the injury situation pushes this even further in their direction. The Mavs can absolutely make it annoying, but I don’t trust them to score consistently for 48 minutes with the current absences.
Prediction: Rockets 118, Mavs 109
