The Spurs host the Mavericks at Frost Bank Center on Saturday, February 7, 2026, at 6:00 PM ET.
The Spurs come in at 35-16 (2nd in the West). The Mavericks are 19-32 (12th in the West).
The Spurs have been strong at home (18-6). The Mavericks have struggled on the road (5-16).
They just played on Thursday, with the Spurs winning 135-123.
This is already the third meeting of the season. The Spurs took the opener 125-92, then backed it up with Thursday’s win, so they’re up 2-0 in the series.
For the Spurs, it starts with Victor Wembanyama (24.2 points, 11.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 2.7 blocks), and the whole game changes depending on whether De’Aaron Fox (20.5 points, 5.9 assists, 4.2 rebounds) is good to go.
For the Mavericks, Cooper Flagg (20.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, 4.2 assists) is the engine, and Naji Marshall (14.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.9 assists) has been the best “second scorer” they’ve had behind him.
One more wrinkle: the Mavericks’ rotation is in flux after the deadline, with Tyus Jones, AJ Johnson, and Marvin Bagley as probable, while Khris Middleton is doubtful after the Anthony Davis trade.
Injury Report
Spurs
Lindy Waters III: Out (left knee hyperextension)
De’Aaron Fox: Questionable (bilateral mid thoracic soreness)
Luke Kornet: Questionable (left adductor tightness/left ankle soreness)
Jeremy Sochan: Questionable (left quad strain)
Mavericks
Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot surgery)
Khris Middleton: Doubtful (trade pending)
Ryan Nembhard: Doubtful (G League – two-way)
Marvin Bagley III: Probable (trade pending)
AJ Johnson: Probable (trade pending)
Tyus Jones: Probable (trade pending)
Brandon Williams: Probable (right lower leg contusion)
Why The Spurs Have The Advantage
The cleanest edge is profile and consistency. The Spurs are 10th in offensive rating (117.1) and 3rd in defensive rating (111.8), good for the 5th-best net rating in the league. The Mavericks are 26th in offensive rating (111.0).
That gap shows up in the “how do you score?” question. The Spurs put up 117.3 points per game on 47.3% from the field, and they generate a lot of clean looks without playing sloppy: they’re one of the league’s better ball-security teams, sitting at 13.6% turnover percentage (6th).
And then there’s the problem every opponent faces: Wembanyama leads the league with 2.7 blocks per game. If the Mavericks don’t hit jumpers early, those paint attempts start turning into hesitations, and hesitations turn into late-clock possessions.
Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage
The path for the Mavericks is defense-first, and to make the Spurs prove it from the outside. Their defense is 11th in defensive rating (113.7), and they’re also No. 1 in opponent three-point percentage (33.7%). That combination matters against a Spurs team shooting 34.8% from three (22nd).
If the Mavericks can shrink the floor on Fox drives (if he plays) and make the Spurs win with jumpers, the game tightens fast. That’s also where Flagg helps: even when the Mavericks’ offense looks clunky on paper (26th in offensive rating), his shot creation can still steal quarters, especially if he gets to his pull-up spots and forces help.
The other swing is the new bodies. If Tyus Jones actually gives them functional minutes as a steady handler, and if Bagley can juice the bench scoring, the Mavericks can survive the stretches where it’s usually “Flagg sits, everything dies.”
X-Factors
Stephon Castle is the Spurs’ big one. He’s at 16.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 6.9 assists, and his pace changes the feel of their offense. If he’s forcing early rotations and living in the paint, the Spurs don’t have to rely on perfect half-court execution every trip.
Julian Champagnie is the “quiet minutes” swing. He’s giving them 11.5 points and 6.1 rebounds, and his job in this matchup is simple: hit open threes when the Mavericks overload toward Wembanyama, then hold up defensively on the wing so the Spurs can keep their help structure intact.
Harrison Barnes is the veteran pressure-release. He’s at 10.5 points and 2.1 assists, and when the Spurs go through dry spells, his ability to punish mismatches and keep possessions alive matters. If he gets them an extra 8 to 10 points without burning possessions, that’s how the Spurs avoid the “weird close game” script.
For the Mavericks, Max Christie is a real swing shooter. He’s at 13.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, and he’s hitting 42.9% from three. If he’s making the Spurs pay for loading up on Flagg and Marshall, the Mavericks’ offense looks normal for long stretches.
Daniel Gafford is the rim-pressure counter. His season line (7.6 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.3 blocks) does not scream “difference-maker,” but his nights get loud when he’s finishing everything and protecting the basket without fouling. If he can be a real presence in the paint, the Mavericks can stay connected defensively even when Wembanyama pulls them into tough decisions.
And the sneaky one is Tyus Jones, because the Mavericks badly need calm. His scoring has been low (3.0 points), but the value is possessions: fewer wasted trips, cleaner entries, and a little more structure when Flagg sits or gets trapped. If that steadiness shows up immediately, the Mavericks have a real chance to drag this into the last five minutes.
Prediction
I’m taking the Spurs. They’re the better team on both ends, they’re elite defensively (3rd in defensive rating), and the Mavericks’ offense has been too shaky (26th in offensive rating) to bet on across 48 minutes, especially with Kyrie Irving out and the rotation changing on the fly.
Prediction: Spurs 115, Mavericks 102
