The Milwaukee Bucks host the Denver Nuggets at Fiserv Forum on Friday at 9:30 PM ET.
The Bucks enter at 18-25 (11th in the East), while the Nuggets come in at 30-15 (third in the West). The Bucks just got popped at home by the Thunder, 122-102, in a game that got away immediately.
The Nuggets answered with a 107-97 road win over the Wizards behind a monster night from Peyton Watson.
These teams have already seen each other once, and the Nuggets took the first meeting 108-104 on January 11. The problem is, this rematch comes with massive availability questions that completely change the math.
For the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic has been playing like a video game, putting up 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 11.0 assists this season. Jamal Murray has been right there as the engine next to him at 26.0 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 7.3 assists.
For the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo is still Giannis, at 28.2 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 5.6 assists. And Ryan Rollins has quietly become a real shot-creator, averaging 16.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists.
This one matters because it’s a clash of styles. The Nuggets want a clean, efficient scoring track meet. The Bucks need it uglier, more physical, and way more organized than what we just saw against the Thunder.
Injury Report
Bucks
Alex Antetokounmpo: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Kevin Porter Jr.: Out (oblique muscle strain)
Taurean Prince: Out (neck surgery)
AJ Green: Questionable (illness)
Gary Trent Jr.: Questionable (illness)
Myles Turner: Probable (left ankle sprain)
Nuggets
Nikola Jokic: Out (left knee bone bruise)
Christian Braun: Out (left ankle sprain)
Cameron Johnson: Out (right knee bone bruise)
Tamar Bates: Out (left foot surgery)
Jamal Murray: Questionable (right hamstring inflammation, left hip inflammation)
Jonas Valanciunas: Questionable (right calf strain)
Peyton Watson: Questionable (right ankle strain, left ankle sprain)
Aaron Gordon: Probable (right hamstring strain)
Why The Bucks Have The Advantage
Start with the obvious: with Jokic still ruled out, the Nuggets keep depending on their role players. A lot of their scoring and efficiency is built on Jokic warping every possession into a layup, a dunk, or a wide-open three. Take that away, and you’re forcing them to live on tougher pull-ups and secondary creation.
This is also the kind of matchup where Myles Turner’s status matters more than usual. He’s at 12.2 points with 1.5 blocks per game, and if he’s available, the Bucks can play a more aggressive rim-protection scheme without completely hemorrhaging corner threes. That’s the defensive identity they need, because right now they’re allowing 115.7 points per game, which is basically begging for a track meet.
Offensively, the Bucks can still score efficiently when they’re not scattered. They’re at 112.2 points per game on 48.3% shooting, and they’re bombing 39.4% from three, which is legitimately elite. If they win this game, it probably looks like this: Giannis downhill pressure, quick kick-outs, and a make-or-miss three-point night that lets them set their defense instead of scrambling.
Why The Nuggets Have The Advantage
Even without perfect health, the Nuggets’ offensive profile is scary. They’re at 121.1 points per game, 28.2 assists per game, and 39.7% from three. That’s not “good,” that’s “you might not be able to keep up if you have a bad five-minute stretch.”
And the Bucks have been living on those bad five-minute stretches. They’ve dropped four of their last five, and the Thunder just put them in a blender, scoring 122 while shooting almost 70% in the first quarter alone. The Bucks’ defense has been too easy to solve when the first action breaks them, because the second and third rotations haven’t been sharp.
The Nuggets also have a clean path to attacking the Bucks’ current perimeter situation. Kevin Porter Jr. is out indefinitely with the oblique issue, which removes a major creator, and it also thins their ability to contain dribble penetration. If Jamal Murray plays, he’s the kind of guard who can punish that with two-man actions, quick rejects, and pull-up threes. If Murray doesn’t play, the Nuggets still have wings who can score without needing the play to be perfect.
X-Factors
Ryan Rollins is the Bucks swing piece, full stop. He’s at 16.0 points and 5.5 assists, and with Porter out, he has to be the guy who keeps the offense organized when Giannis sits or gets walled off. If Rollins can get downhill and force help, the Bucks’ shooters become a real weapon instead of just “spacing on paper.”
Myles Turner is the other one. His 1.5 blocks per game isn’t just a number, it changes what the Bucks can dare the Nuggets to do. If Turner is moving well, the Bucks can press up on the perimeter and trust the back line. If he’s limited, the Bucks can’t play aggressive, and then you’re basically asking Giannis to clean up everything, every possession.
For the Nuggets, Peyton Watson has become more than a “defense and energy” guy. He’s averaging 14.5 points, hits 42.1% from three, and gives you real two-way impact. If Murray is compromised or out, Watson’s ability to create offense off movement and broken plays becomes critical. And if the Bucks’ defense is late on rotations again, he’s exactly the type who will punish it.
And keep an eye on Jonas Valanciunas if he’s available. He’s only at 8.7 points in limited minutes, but his physical rebounding presence can steal extra possessions in a game where the Bucks already don’t have a ton of margin for error.
Prediction
The Nuggets’ margin shrinks fast, and the game becomes far more dependent on Murray creating efficient offense without the usual Jokic safety net. If Murray isn’t fully explosive, the Nuggets can get stuck in tougher half-court possessions.
Without Jokic orchestrating the two-man game and carving up rotations, the Bucks can load the paint more confidently and focus on taking away easy looks.
Prediction: Bucks 114, Nuggets 109
