Start with the standings, because that is where this game gets sharp. The Nuggets host the Warriors at Ball Arena on Sunday, March 29, at 10:00 p.m. ET.
The Nuggets are 47-28 and fourth in the West. The Warriors are 36-38 and 10th. The Nuggets are 23-13 at home, while the Warriors are 15-23 on the road.
The two teams are coming in with wins, but not the same kind of win. The Nuggets beat the Jazz 135-129 on Friday and pushed their streak to five straight. The Warriors beat the Wizards 131-126 the same night and got to three straight.
The season series is 2-1 for the Warriors. They won 137-131 in October and 128-117 in February, while the Nuggets took the November game 129-104.
Nikola Jokic is putting up 27.8 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 10.8 assists. Jamal Murray is at 25.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 7.1 assists.
For the Warriors, Kristaps Porzingis has produced 17.1 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 2.7 assists, while Brandin Podziemski is at 13.1 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.8 assists.
The setup is clear. The Nuggets are trying to protect home-court position in the first round, and the Warriors are still trying to climb out of the bottom part of the play-in field.
Injury Report
Nuggets
No players listed.
Warriors
Stephen Curry: Out (right patellofemoral pain syndrome)
Jimmy Butler III: Out (right ACL surgery)
Al Horford: Out (right soleus strain)
Moses Moody: Out (left patellar tendon surgery)
Seth Curry: Questionable (left adductor strain)
Quinten Post: Questionable (right foot injury management)
Will Richard: Questionable (left heel soreness)
Why The Nuggets Have The Advantage
The first edge is the offense, and it is a big one. The Nuggets rank first in offensive rating at 122.0. They are also first in effective field goal percentage at 57.5%, first in three-point percentage at 39.4%, second in field goal percentage at 49.5%, and third in free-throw rate. This is the cleanest offense in the league by the numbers. Against a Warriors defense ranked 20th in opponent effective field goal percentage and 23rd in opponent shooting percentage, that is a dangerous matchup from the start.
The shooting profile is what makes this hard for the Warriors. The Nuggets do not need a huge number of possessions to score. They can beat you with Jokic in the middle of the floor, Murray in two-man game, and shooters around them. The Warriors allow 115.2 points per game and carry a 114.8 defensive rating. If the Nuggets get to their normal shot quality, the Warriors do not have much room to survive mistakes.
The home split is another clean point. The Nuggets are 23-13 at home and have won five straight overall. The Warriors are 15-23 on the road and still missing too much creation and too much size. Stephen Curry remains out. Jimmy Butlerand Moses Moody are done for the year. Al Horford is still out. That leaves the Warriors needing a near-perfect scoring night from a thin group against one of the league’s best home offenses.
There is also a simple matchup logic here. The Warriors still move the ball well, but they do not get to the line much, ranking only 25th in free-throw rate. The Nuggets are top 12 in opponent free-throw rate and top three in opponent three-point percentage. So even if the Warriors generate some good movement offense, the Nuggets have enough defensive discipline in the most important places to make that offense work harder than usual.
Why The Warriors Have The Advantage
The Warriors’ case starts with one simple fact. They have already won two of the three meetings. That is not enough to make them the better team, but it does tell you they have found some answers in this matchup. In the three games, they have scored 137, 104, and 128 points. When they get the Nuggets chasing off-ball movement and defending a high-volume three-point game, this is not a comfortable matchup for the home team.
The ball movement still gives the Warriors a real path. They rank fourth in the league at 29.0 assists per game, and they make 16.0 threes per game. Even without Stephen Curry, that identity has not disappeared. The Nuggets are only 15th in opponent effective field goal percentage and 21st in opponent two-point percentage, so there are openings if the Warriors move the ball side to side and force Jokic into repeated cover decisions.
The other thing working for the Warriors is recent form from the replacement pieces. Podziemski has been productive. Porzingis has given them a scoring lift. Gui Santos just had 31 against the Nets and 27 against the Wizards. De’Anthony Melton is back and giving them another guard who can break the first line. This is still a short-handed team, but it is not a dead team. Right now, it is playing with more confidence than it was ten days ago.
The last point is pace and pressure. The Warriors force more steals than the Nuggets and can still make a game messy with active hands and quick doubles. If they turn this into a loose game instead of a clean half-court game, they have a better chance. That is how an underdog like this stays alive on the road.
X-Factors
Christian Braun is a strong x-factor for the Nuggets because he gives them low-maintenance offense around the stars. He is averaging 11.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.8 assists while shooting 51.0% from the field. The Warriors will spend most of the night worrying about Jokic and Murray. Braun’s job is to cut, finish, and attack the gaps that open after the first help. If he does that well, the Nuggets get easy points without changing anything in the offense.
Peyton Watson is another big one. He is at 14.9 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.0 assists, with 1.0 steals and 1.2 blocks. His value here is very clear. He can guard multiple spots, protect the rim from the weak side, and still hit open threes. Against a Warriors team using more wings and more movement actions, Watson can swing a quarter just with activity.
Gui Santos is one of the Warriors’ swing players now. He is averaging 8.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 2.3 assists, but his role is much bigger than that line because of the injuries. He just had back-to-back breakout games, and the Warriors need that again. If Santos keeps cutting hard and making open threes, the Warriors can score enough to stay close. If he cools off, the offense gets much thinner very fast.
De’Anthony Melton belongs here too. He is putting up 13.0 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 2.5 assists with 1.6 steals. The Warriors need his downhill game because the Nuggets do not force many turnovers and can be made to defend multiple drives in one possession. If Melton gets into the paint and turns the defense, the Warriors can create enough second-side offense to keep the pressure on.
Prediction
The Nuggets are the better pick. The gap in offense is too clean to ignore: first in offensive rating, first in effective field goal percentage, first in three-point percentage, and 23-13 at home. The Warriors have fought hard and they already lead the season series, but this looks like a bad spot for a team still missing Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody, and Al Horford. The Warriors can score enough to keep it competitive for a while. Over 48 minutes, the Nuggets should have too much structure and too much shot quality.
Prediction: Nuggets 123, Warriors 112
