The Grizzlies host the Warriors at FedExForum on Wednesday, February 25, at 7:30 PM ET. The Grizzlies are 21-35 and 11th in the West, while the Warriors are 30-28 and eighth, with both teams sitting in very different parts of the same conference traffic.
The Grizzlies are 11-16 at home, and the Warriors are 11-17 on the road.
The Warriors’ last game was a 113-109 loss to the Pelicans last night. The Grizzlies’ last game was a 123-114 loss to the Kings on Monday.
They have played twice this season, and the Warriors have won both, so they lead the season series 2-0.
This is a game lacking completely in star availability. For the Warriors, Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Kristaps Porzingis are out, while Draymond Green will be a game-time decision. For the Grizzlies, Ja Morant, Zach Edey, and Santi Aldama are all out.
Cam Spencer is averaging 11.3 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 5.6 assists, and Jaylen Wells is at 12.3 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 1.7 assists for the Grizz.
Moses Moody is averaging 11.9 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 1.6 assists, and Brandin Podziemski is at 12.2 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.7 assists in the Warriors lineup.
The hook is simple: the Grizzlies need a clean, physical home win to stop the slide, and the Warriors need points in the standings before the injury list turns into a losing stretch they cannot get back.
Injury Report
Grizzlies
Ja Morant: Out (left elbow UCL sprain)
Zach Edey: Out (left ankle stress reaction)
Cedric Coward: Out (right knee posterior)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: Out (right 5th finger surgery recovery)
Santi Aldama: Out (right knee injury management)
Brandon Clarke: Out (right calf strain)
Kyle Anderson: Questionable (right knee patellar tendinitis)
Warriors
Stephen Curry: Out (right patellofemoral pain syndrome)
Jimmy Butler III: Out (right ACL surgery)
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (general illness)
Seth Curry: Out (left sciatic nerve irritation)
De’Anthony Melton: Out (left knee injury management)
Draymond Green: Questionable (left low back injury management)
Why The Grizzlies Have The Advantage
The first edge is on the glass. The Grizzlies are 11th in rebounds per game at 54.1, while the Warriors are 25th at 51.2. If this game stays close late, second chances and one-and-done defense are the easiest way for an undermanned team to steal a quarter.
The second edge is ball movement as a baseline offensive identity. The Grizzlies are sixth in assists per game at 28.8, and that matters against a Warriors team that is built to chase your first action, then force you into decisions. If the Grizzlies keep creating advantages with quick second-side passes, they can manufacture enough clean looks to survive the talent gap.
They also have enough three-point volume to play modern offense without forcing it. The Grizzlies are 11th in three-point attempts per game at 38.3, so they can keep pace on the scoreboard even if the Warriors turn the game into a long-range contest.
Why The Warriors Have The Advantage
The Warriors’ clearest edge is the shot math from deep. They are first in three-point attempts per game at 45.4, and that volume is a weapon even when the roster is thin because it compresses the margin: two or three extra made threes can flip a game without needing dominant rim pressure.
That volume is supported by how they generate looks. The Warriors are fourth in assists per game at 29.1. When they are healthy, it is the system. When they are not, it becomes survival. Either way, it is still the quickest path to consistent shot creation against a defense ranked 22nd in points allowed.
They have been more stable defensively than the public perception suggests. The Warriors are 11th in points allowed per game at 113.9, and that matters because the Grizzlies are not built right now to win a half-court shot-making contest without Ja Morant. If the Warriors keep the Grizzlies out of transition and force them to execute late, the game tilts.
This is also where the season series context matters. The Warriors are up 2-0, and both games were the same story structurally: the Warriors shot volume and ball movement creating just enough separation to survive late possessions. The Grizzlies need to change the possession count, not just the shot quality.
X-Factors
Ty Jerome is the Grizzlies’ organizer in a game that is going to feature long stretches of half-court possessions with Ja Morant out. He’s averaging 19.3 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 5.7 assists in a stop-start season, and his value here is simple: the Grizzlies need a guard who can consistently get them into an advantage without gifting live-ball turnovers to a team that still wants to win with three-point volume. If Jerome can keep the ball moving, get two feet in the paint, and manufacture decent shots late in the clock, the Grizzlies can stay attached.
Scotty Pippen Jr. is the other swing because his minutes decide how chaotic this becomes. He’s at 11.2 points and 5.4 assists, and the key is decision-making: the Warriors are short-handed but still structured, and the Grizzlies cannot waste possessions with loose drives or rushed skip passes. If Pippen stabilizes the second unit and keeps the Grizzlies’ turnover count down, it keeps the game in a controllable range.
Draymond Green is the Warriors’ hinge if he plays. He’s averaging 8.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 5.1 assists, and his impact is less about scoring and more about whether the Warriors can keep their defense connected while still generating quality looks out of movement. If Green is limited or sits, the Warriors have fewer ways to control the game’s tempo and fewer possessions where the offense stays organized without a primary star.
Quinten Post is the spacing big who can quietly decide the shot diet. He’s at 7.5 points and 3.9 rebounds, and his role here is to make the Grizzlies pay for helping off the five to crowd the lane. If Post hits a couple early threes or forces rotations with quick decisions, the Warriors’ three-point volume becomes sustainable even without their usual creators. If he’s neutralized, the Warriors’ offense can get stuck in harder, later-clock attempts.
Prediction
I’m taking the Grizzlies. With both teams missing so many key scorers, this should slow down and turn into a possession game. At home, they have the simpler path: defend, rebound, don’t turn it over, and live with ugly points.
Prediction: Grizzlies 109, Warriors 105
