State Farm Arena gets one of the better East games on Monday, April 6, at 7:00 PM ET, when the Hawks host the Knicks.
The Knicks are 50-28 and third in the East. The Hawks are 45-33 and fifth. The Knicks are 21-19 on the road, and the Hawks are 23-16 at home.
The Knicks come in off a 136-96 win over the Bulls. The Hawks are coming off a 141-107 win over the Nets and have won four straight.
The Knicks have won their last two, but the Hawks have been the hotter team for a longer stretch, going 18-2 over their last 20 games.
The season series is tied 1-1. The Hawks won the last meeting 111-99 on Jan. 3 after the Knicks took the first one earlier in the season, so this is the swing game in the matchup.
For the Hawks, Jalen Johnson is at 22.8 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 8.0 assists, while Nickeil Alexander-Walker has given them 20.6 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.7 assists.
For the Knicks, Jalen Brunson is at 26.0 points and 6.7 assists per game, while Karl-Anthony Towns is putting up 20.1 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 2.9 assists.
This looks like a possible first-round preview, and the standings pressure is real on both sides.
Injury Report
Hawks
Jock Landale: Out (right high ankle sprain)
RayJ Dennis: Questionable (G League – Two-Way)
Keshon Gilbert: Questionable (G League – Two-Way)
Knicks
Trey Jemison III: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Why The Hawks Have The Advantage
The Hawks have the clearest style edge in the game. They lead the league in assists at 30.3 per game, play at a 101.7 pace, and score 118.6 points per game. The Knicks are slower at a 97.1 pace. If the Hawks get this game moving, they can pull the Knicks away from the half-court rhythm they prefer.
The Hawks also come in with a more stable recent run. They have won four straight, and the last two were not close. They beat the Magic 130-101 and then crushed the Nets 141-107 with 37 assists and 20 made threes. That is not fake momentum. The offense is moving, and the shot quality has been there.
There is also a defensive case for the Hawks. They rank ninth in defensive rating at 113.5 and average 9.5 steals per game. That matters because the Knicks can become too Brunson-heavy against teams with length and pressure. If the Hawks get the ball out of Brunson’s hands and force the Knicks into more second-side creation, this matchup gets tighter for the road team.
The matchup also points to the arc. The Hawks make 14.6 threes per game, and the Knicks allow 13.8 made threes per game. That is a real pressure point because the Hawks do not need one player to carry the whole offense. They can win with Johnson creating, Alexander-Walker spacing the floor, and the ball finding the open man.
Why The Knicks Have The Advantage
The Knicks still have the stronger full-season offense. They rank third in offensive rating at 120.0, score 116.9 points per game, and shoot 47.6% from the field. The Hawks are good offensively too, but the Knicks have been the more efficient team over the whole season, and that matters in a game that could slow down late.
The rebounding edge is another reason to trust the Knicks. They pull down 46.0 boards per game, while the Hawks are at 43.4. Towns gives them a real advantage there, and Mitchell Robinson has also helped on the glass when he is in the game. If the Knicks win second chances and keep the Hawks from turning every stop into transition, they can control the shape of the night.
The Knicks also take slightly better care of the ball. They commit 13.7 turnovers per game. The Hawks are at 14.2. That is not a huge gap, but it matters in this matchup because the Hawks’ best path is pace, steals, and easy points. If the Knicks stay organized, the Hawks lose part of their edge.
The simple version is that the Knicks have the best half-court player in the game. Brunson can settle things down, get to his spots, and force the Hawks to defend in space. That matters in a road game against a team playing fast. When games tighten late, Brunson gives the Knicks a cleaner offensive fallback than the Hawks have.
X-Factors
Dyson Daniels is a real X-factor for the Hawks because he fills every gap. He is at 11.8 points, 6.7 rebounds, 5.9 assists, and 2.0 steals. Against the Knicks, that matters because he can defend Brunson, help on the glass, and keep the ball moving without slowing down the offense. If Daniels has one of those all-around games, the Hawks get much harder to handle.
Onyeka Okongwu matters too. He is at 15.4 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 3.2 assists. The Hawks do not need him to outscore Towns. They need him to hold up inside, finish plays, and make quick reads when the Knicks load up on Johnson drives. If Okongwu gives them solid center minutes, the Hawks can keep their pace and ball movement intact.
OG Anunoby is a big swing piece for the Knicks. He is at 16.9 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 2.2 assists while shooting 38.8% from three. He just had 31 points against the Bulls, and the Knicks are 22-4 when he scores at least 20. If Anunoby gives the Knicks efficient wing scoring next to Brunson and Towns, the Hawks have a much harder matchup to solve.
Josh Hart is the other Knicks X-factor. He is at 12.1 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 4.9 assists. His role here is simple. Rebound, push, and keep possessions alive without needing plays called for him. If Hart wins those extra-possession minutes, the Knicks can take some of the speed out of the game and make the Hawks work in the half-court.
Prediction
I like the Hawks here. The Knicks have the better top-end offensive efficiency, but the Hawks are at home, they are hotter, and their style is a real problem in this matchup. First in assists, top-10 in defense, fifth in pace, and 18-2 over the last 20 games is a strong case. The Knicks can win if Brunson controls the game late, but the Hawks have more rhythm right now and more ways to stress a defense for 48 minutes.
Prediction: Hawks 116, Knicks 112
