The Spurs get the 76ers at Frost Bank Center on Monday, April 6, at 8:00 PM ET.
The Spurs are 59-19 and second in the West. The 76ers are 43-35 and seventh in the East. The Spurs are 29-7 at home, and the 76ers are 21-17 on the road.
The 76ers are coming off a 116-93 loss to the Pistons, a game that slipped away in the second half.
The Spurs are coming off a 136-134 overtime loss to the Nuggets, which ended their 11-game winning streak.
These teams have already played once this season, and the Spurs won that game 131-91 on March 3.
For the Spurs, Victor Wembanyama is at 24.9 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 3.1 assists, while De’Aaron Fox is at 18.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 6.2 assists.
For the 76ers, Tyrese Maxey is at 28.6 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 6.7 assists, while Joel Embiid has put up 26.7 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 4.0 assists in 37 games this season.
The pressure is heavier on the 76ers because they are still trying to stay out of the play-in.
Injury Report
Spurs
Harrison Ingram: Out (G League – Two-Way)
David Jones Garcia: Out (right ankle surgery)
Emanuel Miller: Out (G League – Two-Way)
76ers
Johni Broome: Out (right knee surgery recovery)
Cameron Payne: Out (right hamstring strain)
Tyrese Maxey: Available (right finger tendon strain splint)
Why The Spurs Have The Advantage
The Spurs are just better on both ends. They have a 119.4 offensive rating, which is top five in the league, and a 111.1 defensive rating. Their net rating is plus-8.3. The 76ers are at 115.6 offensively, 115.8 defensively, and plus-1.2 in net rating. That is a big gap for a game this late in the season.
The Spurs also win the physical areas more often. They are at 47.1 rebounds per game and 28.0 assists per game. The 76ers are at 43.3 rebounds and 24.8 assists. That points straight to the matchup. The Spurs are bigger, deeper, and cleaner from possession to possession.
The first meeting showed the problem for the 76ers. The Spurs beat them by 40 and put up 131 points while shooting 55.1% from the field and 40.0% from three. That does not mean this one will look the same, but it does show what happens when the Spurs get into their normal offense and the 76ers do not have enough resistance at the point of attack.
There is also the home factor. The Spurs are 29-7 at Frost Bank Center. The 76ers have been solid enough away from home, but this is still one of the harder road spots left on their schedule. If the Spurs defend the paint, finish the possession, and make the 76ers beat them from a half-court game, they have the cleaner path.
Why The 76ers Have The Advantage
The 76ers still have the best shot-maker in this game outside of Wembanyama, and that is Maxey. He can change the pace by himself. He is also one of the few guards who can turn a normal possession into a paint touch without much help. If the 76ers are going to steal this game, it starts with Maxey getting downhill and forcing the Spurs to rotate early.
They also take care of the ball well enough to stay alive in a road game. The 76ers are at 13.7 turnovers per game, which is slightly better than the Spurs at 13.5, and that matters because the Spurs are at their best when they can defend, run, and stack easy points. If the 76ers do not feed that, the game stays tighter.
There is also a three-point angle. The Spurs shoot 35.9% from three, which is good but not elite, and the 76ers can at least try to load up on Wembanyama drives and Fox pressure while living with some volume from the wings. That is the only realistic defensive script for them. Shrink the floor, rebound well enough, and hope the Spurs have an average shooting night.
The other path is urgency. The Spurs are in a strong spot in the West. The 76ers are not. They just dropped to seventh after the loss to the Pistons, so this game means more for them in the standings. That does not make them the better team, but it does make the edge in focus and desperation easier to argue on this side.
X-Factors
Stephon Castle is a major X-factor for the Spurs. He is producing 16.7 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 7.3 assists, and he gives the Spurs another real ball-handler next to Fox. That is a problem for the 76ers because it stops them from loading everything toward one guard. If Castle gets into the paint and keeps the ball moving, the Spurs’ offense usually stays on schedule.
Devin Vassell is another important piece because the Spurs do not need him to carry offense, but they do need his spacing. He is at 14.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.5 assists while shooting 38.9% from three. If he hits open looks off Wembanyama and Fox actions, the 76ers will have a hard time bringing extra help without paying for it.
VJ Edgecombe is the biggest 76ers swing piece. He is at 16.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.1 assists, and he has been one of the reasons the 76ers have stayed afloat during all the lineup changes. He matters here because the 76ers need another live dribble creator next to Maxey. If Edgecombe gets to the lane and makes quick reads, the 76ers can score enough to stay attached.
Paul George is a real X-factor here because his level has jumped since returning from his 25-game suspension in late March. Since coming back, George has averaged 27.0 points, 6.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 3.2 steals per game, which gives the 76ers a second real scorer next to Maxey and Embiid. If George is aggressive early and makes the Spurs guard one more creator on every trip, the 76ers have a much better chance to stay in the game deep into the fourth.
Prediction
The 76ers have enough guard play to make this competitive for stretches, but the Spurs should win. They are the better team, they are stronger on the glass, they move the ball better, and they already blew this matchup open once. Maxey can keep the 76ers alive for a while, but the Spurs have too much size, too much balance, and too much control at home.
Prediction: Spurs 121, 76ers 111
