Ball Arena gets Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers on Monday, April 6, at 9:00 PM ET.
The Nuggets are 50-28 and second in the West. The Trail Blazers are 40-38 and still fighting for the 8-9 line in the West. The Nuggets are 25-13 at home, and the Trail Blazers are 18-21 on the road.
The Nuggets come in off a 136-134 overtime win over the Spurs, their eighth straight win. The Trail Blazers are coming off a 118-106 win over the Pelicans and have won three straight.
Both teams are playing well, but the stakes are different. The Nuggets are trying to hold position near the top of the conference. The Trail Blazers are trying to improve their play-in path.
The Nuggets lead the season series 2-1. They lost the first meeting 109-107, then won the next two games 157-103 and 128-112.
Nikola Jokic is at 27.9 points, 12.9 rebounds, and 10.9 assists. Jamal Murray is putting up 25.5 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 7.2 assists.
For the Trail Blazers, Deni Avdija is at 23.9 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 6.7 assists, while Donovan Clingan has produced 12.0 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 2.1 assists.
This is a good test for the Trail Blazers, but it is still a bad matchup on paper because the Nuggets have the best offense in the league and the game is in their building.
Injury Report
Nuggets
Peyton Watson: Out (right hamstring strain)
Spencer Jones: Out (right hamstring strain)
Zeke Nnaji: Questionable (left hip sprain)
Bruce Brown: Probable (left ankle sprain)
Trail Blazers
Damian Lillard: Out (left Achilles tendon injury management)
Jerami Grant: Out (right calf strain)
Vit Krejci: Out (left calf contusion)
Shaedon Sharpe: Out (left fibula stress reaction)
Why The Nuggets Have The Advantage
The Nuggets have the cleanest edge in the game. They lead the NBA in offensive rating at 122.1. They also score 121.6 points per game, shoot 49.4% from the field, and hit 39.6% from three, which is also the best mark in the league. The Trail Blazers have improved, but they still rank 20th in offensive rating at 114.2 and 29th in three-point percentage at 34.1%. That is a big gap in shot quality and shot-making.
The Nuggets also take much better care of the ball. They average 28.8 assists and only 12.9 turnovers per game. The Trail Blazers are at 25.1 assists and 17.4 turnovers. That is a major difference in a game where the road team needs extra possessions to stay close. If the Nuggets keep the ball moving and avoid loose stretches, the Trail Blazers will have a hard time keeping up over four quarters.
There is also a style edge here. The Trail Blazers play faster at 101.0 possessions per game. The Nuggets are slower at 98.4. That usually helps the home team because the Nuggets are comfortable in a half-court game and have the best half-court organizer on the floor in Jokic. If the Nuggets slow the tempo and force the Trail Blazers to score against set defense, the game starts to tilt their way.
The last point is simple. The Nuggets are 25-13 at home, they have won eight straight, and they already beat the Trail Blazers by 16 two weeks ago in this same building. The Trail Blazers are in better form than their record suggests, but the Nuggets have too many stable advantages in this matchup.
Why The Trail Blazers Have The Advantage
The Trail Blazers do have a real path if they can make this physical. They average 46.1 rebounds per game to the Nuggets’ 43.6, and they are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the league at 14.1 a night. Clingan has been a huge reason for that. If the Trail Blazers win the glass and stack second-chance points, they can keep the game tight even without elite shooting.
They are also defending better than most people think. The Trail Blazers sit at 114.7 in defensive rating, while the Nuggets are at 117.4. The Nuggets are a great offensive team, but they are not a great defensive team. That is where the Trail Blazers have a chance. Avdija can attack off the dribble, Holiday can organize the floor, and Clingan can punish the glass. The Trail Blazers do not need perfect offense. They need steady pressure on a defense that has not been strong all year.
The recent form is real too. The Trail Blazers have won five of their last six, including wins over the Clippers and Pelicans, and they are now locked into at least one home play-in game. That does not make them the better team here, but it does mean this is not a dead team walking into a bad spot. They have something to play for, and they are playing with confidence.
X-Factors
Aaron Gordon is a real X-factor for the Nuggets because he gives them a second finisher who can punish smaller defenders and weak rotations. Gordon has produced 16.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.5 assists while shooting 49.7% from the field and 39.0% from three this season. In this matchup, his role is clear. If he runs the floor, finishes around Jokic, and makes the Trail Blazers pay for helping off him, the Nuggets become much harder to contain.
Christian Braun matters for a different reason. Braun brings 12.0 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.8 assists a night, and his value usually shows up in the gaps. Cuts, transition baskets, loose-ball plays, and quick finishes are a big part of the Nuggets’ offense when Jokic starts bending the defense. If Braun turns those chances into points, the Nuggets can separate without needing a huge scoring load from the bench.
Jrue Holiday is one of the main swing pieces for the Trail Blazers because he gives them order in a game that can get away fast. Holiday has posted 16.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 6.1 assists this season. The Trail Blazers need him to control tempo, get the team into offense, and hit enough pull-up shots to keep the Nuggets from loading up on Deni Avdija and the interior game. If Holiday is steady, the Trail Blazers can stay competitive deep into the second half.
Toumani Camara is the other big one for the Trail Blazers. Camara has delivered 13.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.4 assists per game, and his impact goes beyond the box score. He defends hard, rebounds his position, and has been shooting well enough from deep to punish bad closeouts. Against the Nuggets, the Trail Blazers need his activity on both ends. If Camara wins those wing minutes, the Trail Blazers give themselves a better chance to keep the game tight.
Prediction
The Trail Blazers are better than a normal 40-38 team right now, and they have enough size and rebounding to make this annoying for a while. But the Nuggets are still the better team by a clear margin. They have the No. 1 offense in the league, the best three-point percentage in the league, a huge edge in ball security, and an 8-0 run behind them. At home, with Jokic controlling the pace, this looks like a game the Nuggets should take care of by the second half.
Prediction: Nuggets 123, Trail Blazers 113
