The Warriors host the Spurs at Chase Center on Wednesday, April 1, at 10:00 p.m. ET. The Warriors are 36-39 and 10th in the West, while the Spurs are 57-18 and second. The Warriors are 21-15 at home, and the Spurs are 27-11 on the road.
The two teams are coming in from very different places. The Warriors lost 116-93 to the Nuggets in their last game, while the Spurs beat the Bulls 129-114 and pushed their winning streak to nine.
The season series still has one more turn left, but the Warriors have the edge so far. They won the first two meetings 125-120 and 109-108 in November, then the Spurs answered with a 126-113 win in February, so the Warriors lead the series 2-1.
For the Spurs, Victor Wembanyama is at 24.5 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 3.1 blocks per game, while De’Aaron Fox has given them 18.9 points and 7.2 assists.
For the Warriors, Brandin Podziemski has emerged with 15.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 4.5 assists, while Draymond Green has put up 8.5 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 5.4 assists.
The bigger picture is simple: one side is chasing the No. 1 seed, and the other is trying to keep its play-in spot from getting shakier.
Injury Report
Warriors
Stephen Curry: Out (right patellofemoral pain syndrome)
Jimmy Butler III: Out (right ACL surgery)
Al Horford: Out (right soleus strain)
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (general illness management)
Quinten Post: Out (right foot injury management)
De’Anthony Melton: Out (left thumb strain)
Moses Moody: Out (left patellar tendon surgery)
Gary Payton II: Questionable (right knee injury management)
Gui Santos: Questionable (right pelvic contusion)
Spurs
Harrison Ingram: Out (G League two-way)
David Jones Garcia: Out (G League two-way)
Luke Kornet: Out (right knee injury management)
Emanuel Miller: Out (G League two-way)
Why The Warriors Have The Advantage
The Warriors still have a few team-level strengths that give them a path, even with the injury list this heavy. They rank fourth in assists at 29.0 per game, third in steals at 9.9 per game, and 14th in three-point percentage at 35.7%. That profile is a factor because the Warriors are not built to overpower the Spurs inside right now. They need movement, deflections, and quick-trigger offense.
There is also a home-angle argument. The Warriors are 21-15 at Chase Center, and their best recent wins without Stephen Curry have come when the building gives them energy and the role players start the game confidently. Against a Spurs team opening a trip, the Warriors need early shot-making and enough crowd juice to keep the game from turning into a calm half-court execution test.
Their defensive pressure can still bother teams for stretches. The Warriors are second in total steals and have shown they can create messy possessions even when the roster is thin. That is a key since the Spurs are disciplined overall, but they still rely on timing and rhythm more than brute force. If the Warriors can turn the game into a scramble and break the Spurs’ flow, they can at least shorten the talent gap.
The other point is that the matchup has not been one-way all season. The Warriors already beat the Spurs twice, both in tight games, and they have seen the basic formula work before: make enough threes, survive the size issue, and keep the game from becoming a pure Wembanyama game around the rim. That formula is harder now without Curry, but it is still the clearest blueprint available.
Why The Spurs Have The Advantage
The Spurs have a much stronger team profile, and the rankings say it clearly. They are fifth in offensive rating at 119.2, third in defensive rating at 111.2, and second in net rating at plus-8.2. That is contender-level balance, and it becomes even more important against a Warriors team missing this much top-end offense.
The scoring and possession numbers lean the same way. The Spurs are scoring 119.4 points per game, which is one of the better marks in the league, and they are second in rebounds at 46.9 per game. They also rank 10th in assists at 27.9 and have kept turnovers down to 13.6 per game. That is a strong mix against a Warriors team that ranks only 22nd in rebounds and is third-worst in turnovers at 15.8 per game.
The style matchup also points toward the Spurs. They are 12th in pace, so they can run when the opening is there, but they do not need chaos to score. They can beat teams with size, offensive rebounding, and steady half-court creation. That is the exact type of game the Warriors are least equipped to survive right now, because so much of their shot creation and late-clock problem-solving is unavailable.
The recent form makes it even tougher to pick against them. The Spurs are 14-2 in their last 16 and just finished March with nine straight wins, while the Warriors have gone 9-16 without Curry and looked overmatched in the loss to the Nuggets. When one team is this healthy, this deep, and this stable, it is hard to argue against the obvious side.
X-Factors
Gui Santos has become one of the few Warriors role players who can swing a game with activity. He is at 8.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 2.3 assists, and when he starts, those numbers jump higher. The Warriors need his cutting, transition energy, and willingness to shoot open threes, especially with so much offense missing. If Santos gives them another high-energy two-way night, the Warriors at least have a chance to hang in.
Will Richard is another one to watch because the Warriors need extra wing production from somewhere. He has put up 6.9 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 1.4 assists while shooting 47.9% from the field. Against a Spurs team with real size and real defensive structure, the Warriors need a role player who can make quick reads, knock down spot-up shots, and keep the offense from dying on the weak side. Richard fits that job.
Stephon Castle is the first Spurs name here because he changes how many problems the defense has to solve. He has posted 16.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 7.1 assists this season. The Warriors will have to load a lot of attention toward Wembanyama and Fox, and that leaves room for Castle to attack closeouts, hit the paint, and keep the ball moving. If he wins those secondary creation possessions, the Spurs’ offense gets very hard to disrupt.
Keldon Johnson gives the Spurs another gear off the bench. He has produced 13.0 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 1.4 assists this season. This matchup could easily tilt in the non-star minutes, especially with the Warriors so thin. If Johnson brings scoring punch and extra work on the glass, the Spurs can keep pressure on the game even when the main creators rest.
Prediction
The Spurs are the clear pick. The Warriors still have some passing and defensive activity, but the gap in health and overall team quality is too large. The strongest numbers in the matchup all point the same way: the Spurs are fifth in offensive rating, third in defensive rating, second in net rating, and second in rebounds, while the Warriors are 18th in net rating, 22nd in rebounds, and near the bottom of the league in turnovers. That is too much to overcome with Curry and Butler still out.
Prediction: Warriors 106, Spurs 120
