The Warriors welcome the Thunder to Chase Center on January 2, and it’s a matchup that feels bigger than a random early-January game. The Thunder come in at 29-5, sitting first in the West, while the Warriors are 18-16 and currently eighth, trying to keep momentum rolling at home.
This is also not some “fresh matchup” story. These teams have already seen each other twice, and the Thunder handled business both times. They lead the season series 2-0, including a 126-102 win and a 124-112 win.
On the superstar side, this starts with Stephen Curry, who’s putting up 28.7 points per game with 46.8% from the field and 39.4% from three this season.
And then there’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s basically living at the rim and still somehow shooting lasers from deep, averaging 32.1 points, 6.4 assists, and hitting 56.3% overall with 42.0% from three.
Injury Report
Warriors
Draymond Green: Out (rest)
Seth Curry: Out (left sciatic nerve irritation)
Stephen Curry: Questionable (left ankle sprain)
De’Anthony Melton: Questionable (left knee injury management)
Al Horford: Probable (right sciatic nerve irritation)
Trayce Jackson-Davis: Probable (right knee patellar tendinitis)
Thunder
Isaiah Hartenstein: Out (right soleus strain)
Ousmane Dieng: Out (right calf strain)
Jaylin Williams: Out (right heel bursitis)
Nikola Topic: Out (surgical recovery)
Thomas Sorber: Out (right ACL surgical recovery)
Why The Warriors Have The Advantage
The simplest argument is also the loudest one: Chase Center plus shooting equals chaos. The Warriors are 10-4 at home, and when their ball movement turns into a layup line of threes, they can make even elite teams look uncomfortable.
Here’s the sneaky part people miss with them. This season, the Warriors have actually defended at a high level, ranking third in defensive rating at 111.8. That matters in this matchup because the Thunder love to win by forcing you into tough decisions, and the Warriors can fight back with switching, help timing, and activity.
Even without Draymond Green, they can still generate solid possessions if their role guys stay disciplined. And that’s where this game really swings. If Stephen Curry plays, everything changes instantly, not just with points, but with gravity. It turns basic actions into panic.
A normal pick-and-roll becomes two defenders chasing him 28 feet from the rim, and suddenly cutters start living in the paint. The Warriors also lean into sharing the ball, sitting near the top of the league in assist percentage at 69.7. That’s the exact style that can punish a defense when it overreacts.
Brandin Podziemski has been a real x-factor lately, and he just dropped 19 points in the win over the Hornets while the bench smashed them 61-29. That kind of burst matters when the Thunder start taking away your first option. If Podziemski pushes pace after stops, if he cracks the defense early, it keeps the Thunder from setting their shell.
Then you’ve got the frontcourt situation. With Isaiah Hartenstein and Jaylin Williams out, the Thunder lose a lot of their muscle minutes. That opens the door for Trayce Jackson-Davis as a rim-runner and offensive glass threat, and it also makes Al Horford’s probable status pretty interesting because he can drag bigs out of the lane and create driving windows.
Bottom line: if Curry plays and looks even close to normal, the Warriors have enough shooting variance and enough defensive baseline to make this a real fight.
Why The Thunder Have The Advantage
The Thunder have the biggest advantage in basketball: they win possessions like it’s a habit.
They rank first in defensive rating (104.5) and first in net rating (14.2). That’s not “good.” That’s “we’re running the West” territory. They also protect the ball better than anyone, sitting first in turnover percentage at 12.3. When you combine elite defense with elite ball security, you force opponents to play perfect offense for 48 minutes. Most teams can’t do that. The Warriors definitely can’t if Curry sits or looks limited.
And even if you focus on stars, this is scary. Shai is at 32.1 points per game while shooting 56.3% from the field and 42.0% from three. That’s not supposed to be real for a high-usage guard, but it’s happening. The Thunder don’t even need “hero ball,” because their structure lets him pick the soft spot, get to it, and punish you repeatedly.
Chet Holmgren is the other key here. He’s at 18.3 points and 8.0 rebounds this season, and his presence changes what shots opponents even want to take. The Warriors’ attack relies on movement and timing, and Holmgren’s length can erase mistakes in a way that makes shooters hesitate for half a second. That half second is death.
Lu Dort only averages 8.1 points, but his value sits on the other end, where he turns primary scorers into exhausted scorers. Then you’ve got Aaron Wiggins giving them steady two-way minutes at 10.3 points per game, and Isaiah Joe bringing instant offense at 10.7 points per game while hitting 41.8% from three. That’s the kind of “fourth and fifth guy” production that buries teams when they overcommit to the stars.
And we can’t ignore the most practical edge: they’ve already proven the matchup works. The Thunder are up 2-0 in the season series, and neither win looked fluky. They defended, they controlled pace, and they punished mistakes. If the Warriors are missing Draymond and even a slightly compromised Curry, the Thunder’s formula gets even easier.
Warriors vs. Thunder Prediction
This feels like one of those games where the Warriors can hang around early, especially at home, but the Thunder eventually squeeze the life out of the middle quarters with defense and shot quality.
If Curry sits, I don’t think it stays close for long. If he plays, it’s more fun, but I still lean Thunder because they’re too clean with possessions and too elite defensively.
Prediction: Thunder 121, Warriors 113
