The Suns host the Rockets at Footprint Center on Tuesday, April 7, at 11:00 PM ET. The Suns enter at 43-35 and seventh in the West, while the Rockets are 49-29 and fifth. The Suns are 24-15 at home, and the Rockets are 21-19 on the road.
The Rockets come in on a six-game winning streak after a 117-116 win over the Warriors. The Suns won their last game too, beating the Bulls 120-110 with all five starters in double figures. Both teams are still fighting for playoff position, so this is not just another late-season game.
The season series has been one-way so far. The Rockets are 3-0 against the Suns this season, which gives them both the edge on paper and the more proven matchup formula.
For the Suns, Devin Booker is producing 25.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 6.0 assists, while Dillon Brooks has given them 20.4 points and 3.6 rebounds.
For the Rockets, Kevin Durant has put up 25.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 4.8 assists while shooting 51.9% from the field and 41.0% from three. Alperen Sengun has added 20.6 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 6.2 assists.
This is one of the sharper games on the board because the Rockets are trying to hold playoff ground while the Suns are still trying to secure the No. 7 line.
Injury Report
Suns
Haywood Highsmith: Out (right knee injury management)
Rockets
Steven Adams: Out (left ankle surgery)
Fred VanVleet: Out (right knee ACL repair)
Why The Suns Have The Advantage
The Suns’ best case starts with the home floor and the shotmaking around Booker. They are 10th in three-point percentage at 36.3%, and that matters here because the Rockets do not flood games with perimeter offense. The Rockets are only 25th in made threes per game and 29th in three-point attempts per game, so the Suns do not need to win a volume war. They need to make better half-court jump shots.
The Suns also defend the arc well enough to make this game less comfortable for the Rockets, being second in opponent three-point percentage at 34.5%, sixth in opponent assists per game at 24.9, and seventh in opponent points per game at 111.3. That is a clean defensive profile against a Rockets team that ranks only 21st in assists at 25.4 per game and still depends a lot on individual creation from Durant and Sengun. If the Suns keep the ball from moving side to side, they can cut down a big part of the Rockets’ offensive rhythm.
There is also a lineup argument on the Suns’ side. All five starters scored in double figures in the win over the Bulls, and that is the version of the Suns that can win this matchup. Booker gives them the lead scorer, but the real value is when Mark Williams finishes inside, Jalen Green adds downhill scoring, and the wings hit open threes. The Rockets are the better defensive team overall, but the Suns are not short on offensive talent when the lineup is close to full strength.
The other piece is simple. The Suns do not need to dominate this game everywhere. They need to keep it in the half-court, defend the three-point line, and get enough perimeter scoring from Booker and the guards to stay ahead of the Rockets’ rebounding edge. With only Highsmith out, they are in much better shape than they were during that rough stretch when the frontcourt got thin, and the lineup kept changing.
Why The Rockets Have The Advantage
The Rockets have the stronger full team profile, and the numbers make that clear. They are ninth in offensive rating at 118.3, first in defensive rating at 113.3, and have a 5.0 net rating. The Suns sit at 115.6 in offensive rating, 114.0 in defensive rating, and 1.6 in net rating. That is a gap on both ends, not just one.
The biggest edge is on the glass. TeamRankings has the Rockets first in total rebounds per game at 57.4 and second in opponent rebounds allowed at 48.9. They also rank sixth in points in the paint at 52.6 per game. The Suns are only 20th in total rebounds, and their offense is 29th in points in the paint at 43.1. That matters because it points straight to how this matchup tilts. The Rockets can win extra possessions and score inside without needing a huge three-point night.
The defensive control is another big point. The Rockets rank fourth in points allowed, third in opponent assists, fourth in opponent assists per field goal made, and second in defensive rebounding. The Suns, meanwhile, are 26th in points per game and 27th in assists per game. So while Booker can carry stretches, the bigger team pattern says the Suns do not consistently generate easy offense. Against a defense this strong, that is a problem.
The recent form supports the same argument. The Rockets are on a six-game winning streak, posting 30 assists in consecutive games, and have played their best offensive basketball of the season during this stretch. The one thing the Rockets did not have all year was steady offensive flow. If that part is rising while the defense and rebounding stay where they already were, they become a much tougher team to beat than their raw scoring rank suggests.
Then there is the matchup history. The Rockets are already 3-0 against the Suns. That does not guarantee a fourth win, but it tells you the style has worked. They have been able to defend the Suns well enough, keep them off balance over long stretches, and do more damage on the glass. In a game with real playoff pressure, that track record matters.
X-Factors
Collin Gillespie matters for the Suns because he gives them spacing and organization. Gillespie has delivered 13.1 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 4.8 assists while shooting 40.9% from three, and he recently set the Suns’ single-season franchise record for made threes. Against a defense like this, the Suns need one more guard who can both run offense and punish late closeouts.
Grayson Allen is another key piece because the Suns need his shooting to hold the floor together. Allen has given them 16.8 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 3.9 assists while hitting 35.3% from three. If the Rockets load help toward Booker and crowd the paint around Williams, Allen has to make those extra passes hurt. If he is quiet, the Suns can get squeezed into too many hard shots late in the clock.
Reed Sheppard is a real swing piece for the Rockets because he gives them a second guard who can score without stopping the ball. Sheppard has put up 13.6 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 3.5 assists while shooting 39.6% from three. If he hits open jumpers and keeps the weak side active when Durant and Sengun draw help, the Rockets can avoid the kind of stagnant offense that has hurt them at times this season.
Tari Eason is the other one because this game should have a lot to do with second effort. Eason has produced 10.4 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 1.2 steals per game. He is not there to carry offense. He is there to rebound, defend multiple spots, and give the Rockets one more active body around Booker and the Suns’ wings. If he wins those hustle minutes, the Rockets’ edge on the glass gets even bigger.
Prediction
The Suns have enough offensive talent to make this game real, especially at home. But the Rockets still have the cleaner case. They are better on defense, much stronger on the glass, hotter right now, and already 3-0 in the season series. The Suns can stay close if Booker gets help from the secondary guards and the three-point shooting holds up. Over 48 minutes, though, the Rockets’ rebounding and defense should be the difference.
Prediction: Suns 111, Rockets 116
