The Clippers host the Mavericks at Intuit Dome on Tuesday, April 7, at 10:30 PM ET. The Clippers enter at 40-38 and eighth in the West, while the Mavericks are 25-53 and 11th. The Clippers are 21-17 at home, and the Mavericks are 10-27 on the road.
The Clippers are coming off a 138-109 win over the Kings. The Mavericks just beat the Lakers 134-128 behind another huge night from Cooper Flagg.
The season series is 2-1 for the Clippers. They won 133-127 in double overtime, dropped the second meeting 114-110, then took the third game 138-131 in overtime.
For the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard is at 28.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.6 assists, while Darius Garland has given them 18.9 points and 6.8 assists.
For the Mavericks, Cooper Flagg is putting up 21.1 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.6 assists, while Klay Thompson is at 11.7 points, 2.1 rebounds, and 1.4 assists.
This game is simple on paper. The Clippers need it for the standings. The Mavericks are playing through development and Flagg’s late-season push.
Injury Report
Clippers
Bradley Beal: Out (left hip fracture)
Isaiah Jackson: Out (right ankle sprain)
Yanic Konan Niederhauser: Out (right Lisfranc ligament tear)
Mavericks
Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot surgery)
Daniel Gafford: Doubtful (right shoulder impingement)
Caleb Martin: Doubtful (right plantar fascia strain)
Marvin Bagley III: Questionable (left shoulder impingement)
Brandon Williams: Questionable (illness)
Moussa Cisse: Probable (G League – Two-Way)
John Poulakidas: Probable (G League – Two-Way)
Tyler Smith: Probable (G League – Two-Way)
Why The Clippers Have The Advantage
The first edge is efficiency. They are sixth in effective field goal percentage at 56.0%, third in shooting efficiency at 1.193 points per shot, fifth in two-point percentage at 56.6%, seventh in three-point percentage at 36.7%, third in free-throw rate at 0.298, and first in free-throw percentage at 82.4%.
That is a clean offensive profile. It is not built on pace or volume. It is built on making shots and getting to the line. The Mavericks are near the bottom of the league in three-point percentage at 34.3%, effective field goal percentage at 52.8%, and shooting efficiency at 1.120. The gap in shot quality and shot-making is real.
The matchup gets better for the Clippers when you look at the Mavericks on defense. The Mavericks allow 119.4 points per game, rank 30th in points allowed in the paint at 56.0, and sit 27th in opponent assists at 28.5 per game. That points straight to the way the Clippers want to score. Leonard can get to his spots in the mid-range and at the rim. Garland can turn the corner and force help. If the Clippers get two feet in the paint, Dallas usually gives up the next pass or the next finish.
The Clippers also create enough disruption to control a game without needing huge offensive volume. They are sixth in steals per game at 9.2, fifth in steal rate, 10th in points allowed at 112.6, and fourth in opponent free throws attempted at 21.3 per game. The Mavericks have played better lately on offense, but the supporting cast still gets shaky when the game turns sloppy. If the Clippers keep the pressure on the ball and make the Mavericks score in the half-court, the road team has a much thinner margin.
Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage
The Mavericks’ path starts with pace and pressure at the rim. The Mavs rank fourth in fastbreak points at 17.9 per game and fourth in points in the paint at 53.2. They are also eighth in total rebounds at 54.3. The Clippers, meanwhile, are 25th in fastbreak points, 29th in offensive rebounds, 26th in defensive rebounds, and 29th in total rebounds. If the Mavericks can run off misses and own the glass, they can create the kind of extra-possession game that drags the Clippers away from their cleaner half-court attack.
There is also a simple volume argument. The Mavericks are fifth in free throws attempted at 25.9 per game and sixth in free-throw rate. They are not a great jump-shooting team, but they still get downhill. The Mavericks do not need to out-execute the Clippers on every possession. They can stay close by attacking early, getting to the line, and making this game more physical than the Clippers want.
One real strength on the Mavericks’ side is perimeter defense. They rank fifth in opponent three-point percentage at 35.0%. That is useful here because the Clippers are not a high-volume three-point team. They rank only 23rd in attempts and 22nd in makes. If the Mavericks take away clean catch-and-shoot rhythm and force the Clippers into a slower shot diet, the game can tighten.
The other reason the Mavericks can still take this is Flagg’s form. He followed a 51-point game against the Magic with 45 against the Lakers. Over those two games, he shot 33-for-57 from the field and 8-for-13 from three. That is not sustainable forever, but it does change the feel of the matchup. The Clippers have the better team. The Mavericks still have the hottest scorer in the game over the last week, outside of Leonard.
X-Factors
John Collins is a real swing piece for the Clippers because the Mavericks are weak around the rim right now. Collins has produced 13.6 points and 5.3 rebounds while shooting 56.0% from the field and 41.1% from three. If he wins the second-unit minutes or forces the Mavericks to defend him in space, the Clippers get a very clean third scorer behind Leonard and Garland.
Kris Dunn matters for a different reason. Dunn brings 7.5 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.6 steals a night. The Clippers do not need him to score 20. They need him to guard the point of attack, make the simple pass, and keep Flagg from seeing clean driving lanes every trip. If Dunn controls those details, the Clippers become much harder to upset.
P.J. Washington is a big one for the Mavericks because he gives them size, rebounding, and one more scorer next to Flagg. Washington has delivered 14.2 points and 7.0 rebounds this season. Against a Clippers team that is weak on the glass, those boards matter. If Washington wins the frontcourt battle and makes open threes, the Mavs can stay in the game longer than expected.
Naji Marshall is the other name to watch. Marshall has produced 15.4 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 3.3 assists while shooting better than 51.0% from the field. He is important because he gives the Mavericks one more downhill player who can attack a closeout and keep the offense moving when Flagg sits or gets trapped. If Marshall is efficient, the Mavericks have enough secondary creation to avoid a complete drop-off in scoring.
Prediction
The Mavericks have enough pace and enough current scoring from Flagg to make this competitive for a while. But the Clippers are still the safer side. They are better on offense, better at the line, better at forcing mistakes, and much more stable defensively. Add in the home floor, the standings pressure, and the Mavericks still missing too much frontcourt help, and this looks like a game the Clippers should control by the second half.
Prediction: Clippers 121, Mavericks 111
