The Thunder host the Rockets at Paycom Center on Saturday, February 7, 2026, at 3:30 PM ET.
The Thunder come in 40-12 (1st in the West) and have been a monster at home (22-5). The Rockets are 31-19 (5th in the West) and 14-13 on the road.
The Thunder just took a 116-106 loss to the Spurs, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sidelined until the All-Star break, at least. The Rockets are coming off a 109-99 loss to the Hornets.
This is the third meeting. The Thunder are up 2-0 after winning the opener 125-124 in double overtime, then taking the second one 111-91.
For the Thunder, Chet Holmgren is giving them 17.7 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks, and Isaiah Hartenstein has been steady at 11.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 3.1 assists.
For the Rockets, Kevin Durant is still the closer-level engine (26.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 51.0% from the field, 40.5% from three), and Alperen Sengun is right behind him as the hub (20.9 points, 9.4 rebounds, 6.2 assists).
This one matters because it’s basically a stress test of identity: can the Thunder’s scheme and depth hold up without their top shot creation, and can the Rockets’ offense stay clean enough against the best defense in the league?
Injury Report
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Out (abdominal strain)
Jalen Williams: Out (right hamstring strain)
Ajay Mitchell: Out (abdominal strain)
Thomas Sorber: Out (right ACL; surgical recovery)
Nikola Topic: Out (surgical recovery)
Rockets
Fred VanVleet: Out (right knee; ACL repair)
Steven Adams: Out (left ankle surgery)
Tristen Newton: Out (G League; two-way)
Jae’Sean Tate: Out (left wrist contusion)
Why The Thunder Have The Advantage
It starts with the profile. The Thunder have the No. 1 defensive rating in the league (105.7) and the best net rating (12.1). Even with stars missing, that’s the identity: they shrink the floor, rotate early, and don’t give you easy possessions.
The second piece is how they win possessions. They’re allowing a league-low 107.9 opponent points per game, and they’re one of the safest teams with the ball (12.3 turnovers per game, second-fewest). That combo matters against a Rockets team that wants to turn defense into tempo and extra shots.
And the “how” is real: the Thunder are top-tier at forcing mistakes (9.9 steals per game) while also wiping out paint attempts (40.3 opponent paint points per game). If the Rockets don’t get clean kickout threes, they’re going to have to score through bodies.
Why The Rockets Have The Advantage
The obvious swing is top-end shot-making. With Gilgeous-Alexander out, the Rockets have the best scorer on the floor in Kevin Durant, and that matters late when the possession quality drops and it turns into “go get me one.”
The numbers say the Rockets can live in this game defensively, too. They’re top-five in defensive rating (112.2), and their offense is still top-10 by offensive rating (117.3). They can win ugly if they keep the ball moving enough to avoid the Thunder’s pressure points.
Where the matchup is real for them is inside. The Rockets are scoring 52.8 points in the paint per game (6th), and if Sengun is dictating touches at the elbows, it can pull Holmgren and Hartenstein into decisions they’d rather avoid.
X-Factors
Isaiah Joe is the clean “spacing weapon” for the Thunder. He’s at 9.7 points per game and hitting 39.8% from three, and that’s the kind of shooting that punishes even one soft help decision. If Joe is making shots early, the Rockets can’t sit in the lane and load up on Holmgren rolls and Hartenstein short-roll reads.
Alex Caruso is the chaos lever. He’s only at 6.2 points, but he’s giving them 1.4 steals in 18.5 minutes, and these games without their main creators become about generating offense from defense. If Caruso is blowing up entries and turning possessions into runouts, the Thunder can score without needing “perfect” half-court execution.
Aaron Wiggins is the quiet swing scorer. He’s at 10.8 points a night, and with the Thunder short-handed, they need one of the secondary guys to win a quarter. If Wiggins gives them efficient scoring against second units, it changes the math.
For the Rockets, Amen Thompson is the engine piece. He’s at 18.1 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 5.5 assists, and his rim pressure is the best way to bend a defense that doesn’t bend much. The catch is spacing, but if he’s cutting and screening instead of standing, he can still be the reason the Rockets win the possession battle.
Reed Sheppard has to be the “clean offense” guy with VanVleet out. He’s at 12.4 points and 2.9 assists, and he’s hitting 37.9% from three. If he keeps turnovers down and hits shots on the move, the Rockets can survive the Thunder’s pressure and keep Sengun in his comfort zones.
Jabari Smith Jr. is the two-way swing. He’s at 15.1 points and 6.8 rebounds, and his ability to space bigs out (35.5% from three) while still protecting the glass is how the Rockets avoid getting stuck in slow, contested shots. If he wins his minutes against the Thunder frontcourt, the Rockets’ ceiling jumps.
Prediction
I’m taking the Thunder, even without the stars, because the defense is still the most reliable thing in this matchup. The Thunder are No. 1 in defensive rating and protect possessions, and that’s usually what decides these grind games. The Rockets can absolutely steal it behind Durant, but I trust the Thunder to force just enough empty trips.
Prediction: Thunder 109, Rockets 104
