The play-in line gets tighter Tuesday night. The Clippers host the Trail Blazers at Intuit Dome on Tuesday, March 31, at 11:00 p.m. ET.
The Clippers are 39-36 and eighth in the West. The Trail Blazers are 38-38 and ninth. The Clippers are 21-15 at home, and the Trail Blazers are 17-21 on the road.
The Clippers come in off a 127-113 win over the Bucks on Sunday and have won five straight. The Trail Blazers pulled off a 123-88 win over the Wizards that night after dropping a 100-93 game to the Mavericks two nights earlier.
The season series has gone one way so far. The Clippers won 114-107 in the first meeting and 119-103 in the second, so they lead 2-0 with one more matchup still ahead after this one.
For the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard is putting up 28.2 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.6 assists, while Darius Garland has given them 19.1 points and 6.9 assists.
For the Trail Blazers, Deni Avdija is producing 23.8 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 6.7 assists, and Donovan Clingan is at 12.2 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks.
This is not just another late-season game. A Clippers win gives them breathing room in the race for eighth, while a Trail Blazers win brings the bracket line even closer with another head-to-head still on the schedule.
Injury Report
Clippers
Bradley Beal: Out (left hip fracture)
Isaiah Jackson: Out (right ankle sprain)
Yanic Konan Niederhauser: Out (right Lisfranc ligament tear)
Trail Blazers
Jerami Grant: Out (right calf strain)
Vit Krejci: Out (left calf contusion)
Damian Lillard: Out (left Achilles tendon injury management)
Shaedon Sharpe: Out (left fibula stress reaction)
Chris Youngblood: Out (G League two-way)
Why The Clippers Have The Advantage
The Clippers bring a more polished offensive profile into the game. They rank 10th in offensive rating at 117.6, seventh in three-point percentage at 36.8%, and first in free-throw percentage at 82.4%. They are not a high-volume passing team, but they still shoot 48.6% from the field and score 114.0 points per game. Against a Trail Blazers defense that has been respectable overall but still gives up 116.1 points per game, that shot quality edge is real.
The possession battle leans toward the Clippers, too, and that is probably the biggest swing point in the matchup. The Trail Blazers turn it over 17.4 times per game, the highest mark in the league, and that has shown up in this season series already. In the two losses to the Clippers, they coughed it up 31 times combined. It showed up again in the Mavericks’ loss, when the Blazers committed 25 turnovers and gave away 33 points off them. If that issue repeats, the Clippers do not need to dominate the glass to control the game.
The recent form favors the home side as well. The Clippers have won five in a row, and in those five wins, they scored 138, 129, 119, 114, and 127 points. That tells you what this team has looked like lately. Even with an ordinary defensive ranking of 18th, the offense has been good enough to keep games on its terms, especially when Leonard and Garland are both creating advantages.
There is also a direct matchup read here. The Clippers are 2-0 in the series, held the Trail Blazers to 105.0 points per game, and saw them shoot just 40.7% from the field. The Blazers have size and activity, but the Clippers have already shown they can flatten the game, force tougher shots, and make them pay whenever the ball gets loose.
Why The Trail Blazers Have The Advantage
The Blazers have more ways to create extra possessions. They rank sixth in rebounds at 46.1 per game, are tied for seventh in blocks at 5.5, rank eighth in pace at 100.90, and sit seventh in free-throw attempts at 25.6 per game. That is a strong mix against a Clippers team that ranks 19th in rebounds at 40.7 per game. If the Blazers can turn this into a game with more missed shots, more second chances, and more rim pressure, the shape of the matchup changes fast.
There is enough offensive production here even with the injury list. The Trail Blazers are scoring 115.3 points per game, which is actually a little more than the Clippers, and they are 22nd in offensive rating rather than buried at the bottom. The problem has been efficiency from deep, where they rank 30th at 34.0%. So the formula is pretty clear. They need drives, paint touches, offensive boards, and free throws, not a three-point contest.
The defensive base is solid enough to keep them in it. The Trail Blazers rank 14th in defensive rating at 114.8, and over the last four games, they have held the Wizards to 88 and the Mavericks to 100, even in a loss. This is not a soft team. It is a team that can still survive rough shooting if Clingan protects the rim, Camara flies around the floor, and Avdija keeps the offense from getting stuck.
The urgency also lands on the Blazers’ side. The Trail Blazers are one game back in the standings and still have another shot at the Clippers after this one. That is why the turnover problem is so central. If they just bring those giveaways down to a normal number, the rebounding edge and foul pressure give them a very real path to steal the game.
X-Factors
Brook Lopez could tilt the middle of the floor. He is at 8.1 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.2 blocks this season. The counting stats are modest, but this matchup fits him. The Trail Blazers want Clingan near the basket, and Lopez can drag that coverage out with pick-and-pop spacing while still giving the Clippers back-line rim protection on the other end. If Lopez hits a couple of early threes, the Blazers’ interior comfort disappears.
Bennedict Mathurin is the scoring punch that can flip the second unit minutes. He is producing 18.8 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 2.3 assists, and he just went for 28 in the win over the Bucks. The Blazers have enough length to make life hard on Leonard for stretches. That is where Mathurin comes in. If he keeps bending the defense off the bench, the Clippers avoid the dry spells that usually open the door for underdogs.
Toumani Camara has a chance to become the Trail Blazers’ tone-setter in this one. He has put up 13.1 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.5 assists this season, and he is coming off a 23-point game against the Wizards. Portland needs his defense on Leonard, but it also needs his activity on the glass and his willingness to run the floor. If Camara gives them a strong two-way night, the Trail Blazers can stay in contact even when the half-court offense gets messy.
Jrue Holiday is another big one because this game can easily swing on guard play and late-clock decisions. He is posting 15.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 6.1 assists this season. The Blazers do not have much room for careless possessions against this opponent. Holiday has to settle the offense, defend Garland, and keep the ball moving before the Clippers load up. If he wins that matchup enough, the Blazers can make this a real fourth-quarter game.
Prediction
The Clippers are the pick. The Trail Blazers have the rebounding edge, more rim pressure, and plenty of urgency, but the cleaner team is still on the other side. The Clippers already lead the series 2-0; they have won five straight, and the matchup keeps circling back to one issue Portland has not solved yet: turnovers. Against a team that shoots this well, closes free possessions at the line, and already has a read on the matchup, that is hard to overcome on the road.
Prediction: Clippers 118, Trail Blazers 111
