One side is trying to stop a skid before the bracket tightens. The other is trying to get through the final stretch with half the rotation missing. The Grizzlies host the Knicks at FedExForum on Wednesday, April 1, at 8:00 p.m. ET.
The Grizzlies are 25-50, while the Knicks are 48-28. The Grizzlies are 13-24 at home, and the Knicks are 20-19 on the road.
The Grizzlies lost 131-105 to the Suns on Monday, and the Knicks fell 111-94 to the Rockets on Tuesday. The Knicks also won the first meeting 133-120 on Nov. 11, so they lead the season series 1-0.
For the Grizzlies, Cedric Coward has posted 13.3 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 2.8 assists, while Cam Spencer has added 11.1 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 5.5 assists.
For the Knicks, Jalen Brunson is at 26.1 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 6.7 assists, while Karl-Anthony Towns has put up 20.1 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 2.8 assists.
Injury Report
Grizzlies
Ja Morant: Out (left elbow UCL sprain)
Santi Aldama: Out (right knee surgery recovery)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: Out (right fifth finger surgery recovery)
Brandon Clarke: Out (right calf strain)
Zach Edey: Out (left ankle and elbow surgery recovery)
Scotty Pippen Jr.: Out (right great toe surgery recovery)
Ty Jerome: Out (left ankle sprain)
Jaylen Wells: Out (right great toe surgery recovery)
Taylor Hendricks: Doubtful (left fifth finger soreness)
Taj Gibson: Questionable (right foot injury management)
Knicks
Miles McBride: Out (pelvic core muscle injury management)
Mitchell Robinson: Out (left ankle injury management)
Jalen Brunson: Questionable (right ankle soreness)
Why The Grizzlies Have The Advantage
The first Grizzlies’ argument starts with pace. They play at a 101.6 pace, one of the fastest marks in the league, and they are still moving the ball at a healthy rate with 28.1 assists per game. That is the right formula against a Knicks team playing on the second night of a back-to-back. The Grizzlies do not have the deeper roster, so they need volume, tempo, and a game that gets stretched before the Knicks can fully settle into the half-court.
There is also enough offense left to keep this from becoming a dead game. The Grizzlies are scoring 115.1 points per game, and Spencer plus Coward have given them real creation on the perimeter even with so many guards and bigs missing. That does not make them a strong offense overall, but it does give them a way to attack a Knicks group that has to manage tired legs and an uncertain Brunson status.
The first meeting was still loose enough to offer a template. The Grizzlies scored 120 points, shot 51.2% from the field, and got 32 from Ja Morant that night. Morant is out now, so it will not look the same, but that game still showed the Knicks can be pushed into a quicker, more open style than they want. If the Grizzlies can make this another pace game instead of a clean execution game, they have a better shot than the records suggest.
The other edge is a simple home context. The Grizzlies have not had a good season, but they are at home against a team that has lost three straight and is coming in without much breathing room in the East race. Early energy can change the tone here. If the Grizzlies get the first run and force the Knicks to play uphill again, the pressure shifts fast.
Why The Knicks Have The Advantage
The bigger profile is still on the Knicks’ side, and it starts with the offense. They own a 119.7 offensive rating, which ranks third in the league, and a 6.5 net rating, which ranks fifth. They are also scoring 117.1 points per game and pulling down 45.8 rebounds. That is a much sturdier team base than what the Grizzlies have brought for most of the season.
The Grizzlies have not been able to match that balance. They carry a 113.4 offensive rating, which sits 23rd, and they are allowing 116.3 points per game. They still play fast and move the ball, but too many possessions end with them needing to score around mistakes, bad spacing, or thin lineups. Against a Knicks team that can punish weak half-court defense, that is a dangerous setup.
The first meeting leaned the same way. The Knicks scored 133, hit 22 threes, and got 32 points plus 10 assists from Brunson. Towns added 21 points and 13 rebounds. Even if this rematch is slower and uglier, the matchup still favors the team with more proven shot creation, more rebounding stability, and the cleaner half-court structure.
There is also more room for the Knicks to win ugly. They do not need a shootout to take control. They can win the glass, run offense through Towns, and lean on bigger wing minutes if Brunson is limited. The Grizzlies, by contrast, are missing too many regular creators and rim pieces to feel safe once the game slows down. Over four quarters, that usually shows up.
X-Factors
GG Jackson gives the Grizzlies one of their few real scoring swings off the wing. He has averaged 12.0 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 1.4 assists this season. The Knicks will load toward the main ball-handlers, and that leaves Jackson with a real chance to punish closeouts or win bench stretches with quick scoring. If he gets hot, the Grizzlies can stay connected even when the main creation gets messy.
Jahmai Mashack is the other Grizzlies name to watch. He has produced 5.4 points, 2.2 rebounds, and 1.4 assists this season. The scoring line is light, but his role is not. The Grizzlies need him to defend, cut, and help turn the game into more of a scramble. If Mashack creates a few extra possessions with activity and keeps the weak side moving, the Grizzlies have a better shot to drag this deeper than expected.
OG Anunoby is a big one for the Knicks because this is the kind of game where wing control can decide everything. He has averaged 16.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 2.2 assists this season. The Grizzlies will try to create offense with pace and random actions, so the Knicks need Anunoby’s defense, his transition finishing, and his ability to knock down catch-and-shoot looks without needing the ball to stick. If he wins those two-way possessions, the Knicks can keep the game from getting loose.
Josh Hart is the other Knicks player who could tilt the night without leading the team in scoring. He has put up 12.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 4.9 assists this season. The Grizzlies are short on stable rebounding and half-court playmaking, so Hart’s work on the glass and his connective passing become more important than usual. If he keeps turning long rebounds into second actions and early offense, the Knicks get a much cleaner version of the game they want.
Prediction
The Knicks are still the pick. The Grizzlies have the pace edge and the home floor, and that could make this annoying for a while, especially with the Knicks on a back-to-back. But the strongest numbers still point one way: the Knicks are third in offensive rating, fifth in net rating, and much stronger on the glass, while the Grizzlies are 23rd in offensive rating and are giving up 116.3 points per game. That gap is too wide to ignore, even in a game that may start a little sloppy.
Prediction: Grizzlies 109, Knicks 118
