The Minnesota Timberwolves host the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday night with two very different vibes coming in.
The Wolves sit at 17-9, sixth in the West, and they have looked like a real problem lately. They just won six of their last seven games, including a statement road win over the Warriors, where they survived the Curry comeback game even without Anthony Edwards and Mike Conley.
The Grizzlies are 12-14, ninth in the West, and they are still trying to climb out of the early-season hole. The good news is they have started to stabilize, and they are coming off a 121-103 win over the Clippers, where Jaren Jackson Jr. hit a season-high 31 points and the bench exploded with shot-making.
Injury Report
Grizzlies
Ja Morant: Questionable (left ankle sprain)
Brandon Clarke: Questionable (right knee surgery recovery)
Zach Edey: Out (left ankle stress reaction)
GG Jackson: Out (G League, on assignment)
Ty Jerome: Out (right calf strain)
John Konchar: Out (left thumb UCL)
Scotty Pippen Jr.: Out (left great toe, surgery recovery)
Javon Small: Out (left toe, turf toe)
Cam Spencer: Out (personal reasons)
Timberwolves
Anthony Edwards: Questionable (right foot, injury management)
Mike Conley: Out (right Achilles tendinopathy)
Joan Beringer: Out (G League, on assignment)
This game swings on availability. If Edwards and Ja Morant both play, you get fireworks. If one or both sit, the matchup turns into a grind where depth and frontcourt control matter a lot more. There’s also a frontcourt hole for the Grizzlies, with Zach Edey recently sidelined for up to four weeks, plus GG Jackson and Brandon Clarke also missing this one.
Why The Wolves Have The Advantage
Even if Edwards ends up limited or sits, the Wolves still have a clean formula for winning this kind of game.
First, they have a true offensive anchor right now. Julius Randle is putting up 23.1 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 5.8 assists on 49.5% from the field, which is basically star production every night. When the game slows down, he can create a shot without everything being perfect.
Second, they have the most bankable interior presence in the matchup if Edey is out. Rudy Gobert is at 10.3 rebounds per game while shooting 74.5% from the field, and that combo usually shows up as extra possessions, easy finishes, and a defense that does not collapse when perimeter guys get beat.
Third, the perimeter support is real. Donte DiVincenzo is hitting 38.0% from three while taking eight attempts per game, and that matters because the Grizzlies are going to send help and dare role players to beat them. If DiVincenzo is making shots, the Wolves’ offense looks simple.
And the biggest thing, the Wolves are playing confident basketball right now. That Warriors win showed they can execute without their headline guys, which is exactly what you want in December games when injury reports decide everything.
Why The Grizzlies Have The Advantage
The Grizzlies have two paths to winning, and both are real.
One is Ja Morant playing. Even though his season numbers have been uneven, he is still the one player on the roster who can bend a defense with downhill pressure and force rotations every single trip. If he suits up and looks like himself, the Wolves have to guard the paint differently, and that opens jumpers for everyone else.
The second path is Jaren Jackson Jr. taking over the frontcourt matchup. He leads the team at 17.4 points per game, and he is coming off that 31-point night against the Clippers, which matters because it showed the Grizzlies can still generate a big scoring game even when Morant is not carrying the load. If Jackson gets Randle into foul trouble or pulls Gobert away from the rim with jumpers, the whole geometry changes.
They also have quietly gotten more production across the rotation than people realize. Santi Aldama is at 13.1 points and 6.3 rebounds, and the team has leaned on ball movement with Vince Williams Jr. leading them in assists at 5.0 per game. It is not flashy, but it is functional.
Finally, momentum is not just a Wolves thing. The Grizzlies have won seven of their last ten games, and that matters because it tells you they are finding lineups that work even through the constant availability issues.
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Prediction
If Edwards plays, I like the Wolves pretty comfortably. They already have the better record, they are in better form, and they have the bigger interior edge with Gobert, especially if Edey remains out.
If Edwards sits and Morant plays, it gets messy fast, because the Wolves will have to win with execution and shot-making rather than pure star power. That is doable, but it tightens the margin.
I am still leaning Wolves, mainly because they have been the steadier team all season, and they have already shown they can win a big game without Edwards and Conley when the defense locks in and the role guys hit shots.
Prediction: Timberwolves 116, Grizzlies 109
