The NBA Cup Final brings together two teams that earned their spot the hard way. The New York Knicks and the San Antonio Spurs arrive in Las Vegas with identical 18-7 records, both sitting top-4 of their conferences and playing their best basketball of the season at the right time.
This is not a fluke matchup. This is a final between two teams that have consistently beaten quality opponents over the last month.
The Knicks reached the final after a dominant 132-120 win over the Orlando Magic in the semifinal. Jalen Brunson led the way with 40 points while the offense shot over 60% from the field and completely broke the game open in the third quarter.
The Knicks have now won nine of their last ten games and rank among the league leaders in halfcourt efficiency during that stretch.
The Spurs took a tougher path. They eliminated the Thunder with a 111-109 win, snapping the Thunder’s 16-game winning streak in the process.
Victor Wembanyama finished with 22 points, nine rebounds, and two blocks, sealing the game with a late defensive stop. That win pushed the Spurs to their seventh victory in the last ten games and reinforced the idea that this group is ahead of schedule.
Both teams average over 118 points per game this season. Both rank top ten in net rating. And both have shown they can win in very different ways, which is exactly why this final feels legitimate.
Injury Report
Knicks
- Miles McBride: Out (left ankle sprain)
- Landry Shamet: Out (right shoulder sprain)
Spurs
- Kyle Mangas: Out (G League, two-way)
The Knicks are the more affected team here. McBride’s absence removes a trusted perimeter defender and ball handler from the rotation, especially in lineups that rely on pressure at the point of attack. Shamet being out also limits their off-ball shooting depth.
The Spurs are essentially at full strength for their core rotation.
Why The Knicks Have The Advantage
The Knicks’ biggest edge is control, and the numbers back it up. They are scoring 121.0 points per game with 27.0 assists and only 12.6 turnovers, which is exactly the profile you want in a final where every empty trip feels like a punch to the ribs.
They also shoot 37.8% from three as a team, so they can win the math battle without playing recklessly.
Jalen Brunson is the engine of that control. He is putting up 28.8 points and 6.4 assists while shooting 48.7% from the field and 37.6% from three, and he’s playing huge minutes without getting sloppy. That matters more in a final than any hype narrative, because when the game tightens, he can still create a clean look without turning it into a coin flip possession.
Karl-Anthony Towns gives the Knicks the other thing finals demand: a steady interior base. He’s averaging 22.4 points and 11.9 rebounds, and that rebounding presence is a big reason the Knicks average 13.6 offensive boards per game.
Those extra possessions are how you break a team that wants to run. You keep them in the half-court, you make them defend again, and eventually they crack.
On the wing, OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges are real two-way pieces, not just names. Anunoby is at 16.2 points with 1.9 steals, Bridges is at 16.4 points with 1.9 steals, and that combo matters because it lets the Knicks switch looks without constantly sending help.
Add Josh Hart, who’s giving them 12.4 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 5.0 assists, and you’ve got a team that can win ugly without losing its spacing.
Why The Spurs Have The Advantage
The Spurs have the most obvious swing factor in the building. Victor Wembanyama is averaging 25.8 points, 12.6 rebounds, and 3.5 blocks while shooting 50.4% from the field, and even when he doesn’t score, he changes where shots happen and how comfortable teams feel attacking the rim.
The other reason the Spurs are terrifying is that it is not just a one-man show. De’Aaron Fox catapulted his scoring to 23.9 points, and he’s adding 6.2 assists. Stephon Castle is right behind him at 18.4 points and 6.9 assists, which gives them a second creator who can keep pressure on the defense when Fox sits or when the game goes into scramble mode.
As a team, they’re scoring 119.7 points per game with 25.7 assists. They also shoot 36.6% from three, so you cannot just pack the paint and live with kickouts. And when the Spurs get stops, they turn it into chaos fast, because they have multiple ball handlers who want to run, not walk.
Their Cup run already proved they can survive a tight finish. They beat the Thunder 111-109 in the semifinal, with Wembanyama putting up 22 points and nine rebounds in his return. That is a real pressure test, and they passed it.
The Deciding Factor
This final is going to swing on possessions and shot quality.
The Knicks are the cleaner team with the ball. They average 12.6 turnovers per game, while the Spurs are at 14.2. If the Knicks win that battle, they force the Spurs to score against a set defense more often, which is the one place you actually want them.
The second key is second chances. The Knicks grab 13.6 offensive rebounds per game, compared to 11.5 for the Spurs. That is not a massive gap, but in a one-game final, three or four extra possessions can literally decide the trophy.
Then it comes down to the three-point line. The Knicks take 39.9 threes per game and hit 37.8%. The Spurs take 37.0 and hit 36.6%. If the Knicks win the math game from deep, they can survive the Wembanyama problem without playing perfectly.
Knicks vs. Spurs Prediction
I’m taking the Spurs, and it’s basically because of one thing: Victor Wembanyama can decide a one-game final by himself.
That Thunder win wasn’t some random hot shooting night. It was the Spurs surviving a team that had been bulldozing everyone for weeks, on the biggest stage they’ve had so far this season, with every possession feeling like it could swing the whole game.
And the reason they could live through the chaos is Wembanyama. He shrinks the floor, he wipes out mistakes, and he turns normal drives into hesitations and floaters. OKC didn’t lose because the Spurs “out-executed” them with perfect offense. They lost because the rim stopped being free real estate.
That’s exactly the kind of edge that matters against the Knicks. Their whole thing is control, getting to their spots, and grinding you down. But that control gets way harder when the paint is basically locked, and every kickout comes a second late because guys are scared to challenge the length.
The Knicks can run their sets, they can get switches, they can get to the elbows, but if the rim is poisoned, suddenly those possessions become jumpers under pressure. That’s when the game flips from “Knicks pace” to “Spurs chaos,” even if the clock says it’s slow.
The other reason I like the Spurs is that a final rewards defensive execution. Offense can go cold for anyone, even a team as steady as the Knicks. What usually travels is rim protection and intimidation, and Wembanyama brings both in a way no one else in this matchup can match. If he stacks a couple of early stops and forces the Knicks to start second-guessing layups, the whole vibe changes.
So yeah, give me the Spurs. Not because the Knicks can’t win, they absolutely can. But in a one-game trophy setting, I’ll take the team with the walking cheat code that can break your offense without even scoring.
Prediction: Spurs 114, Knicks 110
