- Joel Embiid will find it hard to win his third straight scoring title
- Expect a new face to lead the league in scoring
- Offense is at a massive premium these days
As the 2023-24 NBA season approaches, basketball enthusiasts and fans of the sport eagerly anticipate the thrilling showdowns, spectacular plays, and intense competition that are bound to unfold on the hardwood. One of the most captivating aspects of any NBA season is undoubtedly the race for the scoring title, where elite athletes showcase their scoring prowess, igniting the excitement of fans worldwide.
This past season, Joel Embiid won his second-straight scoring title by posting 33.1 points per game on 54.8% shooting from the field in 66 games. Could it be possible that the big man can go for his third straight scoring title, even without James Harden by his side? In this article, we delve into the realm of crystal ball analysis, seeking to predict the top 10 best scorers for the upcoming season, taking into account player statistics, team dynamics, and potential breakout stars.
While some of the iconic scorers in the game will be returning to their assumed positions, there might be fresh blood in the scoring race. Buckle up, because we are anticipating an unforgettable year of high-flying dunks and endless three-pointers.
10. Giannis Antetokounmpo
2022-23 Scoring Average: 31.1 PPG
2023-24 Predicted Scoring Average: 26.1 PPG
In the 2022-23 season, Giannis Antetokounmpo was a scoring machine, averaging an impressive 31.1 points per game. However, in the 2023-24 season, we predict a slight dip in his scoring average to 26.1 PPG. This anticipated decrease can be attributed to his change in role and the dynamics of his team.
Playing alongside Damian Lillard in the backcourt is a double-edged sword for Giannis. While Lillard’s exceptional scoring ability can take some of the offensive burden off Giannis, it may also limit his opportunities to shine as a primary scorer. Lillard’s presence will likely lead to more shared ball-handling duties, potentially reducing the number of isolation plays that Giannis thrives on.
Nevertheless, this scoring dip should not be interpreted as a regression in Giannis’s overall game. He’s expected to shift his focus to other facets of the game, including rebounding, defense, and playmaking as he looks toward winning his second championship.
9. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
2022-23 Scoring Average: 31.4 PPG
2023-24 Predicted Scoring Average: 26.7 PPG
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a breakout year during the 2022-23 season, astonishing fans with his incredible scoring ability and averaging a remarkable 31.4 points per game. However, as we look ahead to the 2023-24 season, we predict a decrease in his scoring average to 26.4 PPG. One key factor is that teams will be better prepared for Shai in the upcoming season. His incredible performance in the previous year caught the league by surprise, but as teams analyze his game and tendencies, they will develop defensive strategies to limit his scoring output.
Additionally, Shai will likely share the ball more with his teammates, particularly with promising youngsters Josh Giddey and Chet Holmgren. As the Thunder’s offense evolves, Shai may take on more of a playmaking role, distributing the ball and creating opportunities for his teammates. While this shift can lead to a slight decrease in his scoring, it reflects his versatility and commitment to team success.
8. Kevin Durant
2022-23 Scoring Average: 29.1 PPG
2023-24 Predicted Scoring Average: 26.9 PPG
Kevin Durant has long been regarded as one of the best scorers in NBA history, and in the 2022-23 season, he lived up to that reputation, averaging an impressive 29.1 points per game. However, as we look forward to the 2023-24 season, we predict a slight decrease in his scoring average to 26.9 PPG.
Durant’s move to a team with additional offensive firepower, featuring talents like Devin Booker and Bradley Beal, is a significant factor in this prediction. While Durant’s scoring ability is unquestioned, he will be sharing the ball with two high-scoring guards, which is likely to lead to more balanced offensive contributions. The presence of Booker and Beal provides a cushion for Durant, as he won’t have to shoulder the same scoring load he did in previous seasons.
Not to mention, Durant’s legacy won’t be affected by another scoring title but rather by an NBA title. The fact that he has not won outside of Golden State is not a great look for a player who is arguably one of the 15 best to have ever played.
7. Damian Lillard
2022-23 Scoring Average: 32.2 PPG
2023-24 Predicted Scoring Average: 27.2 PPG
Damian Lillard’s role in the offense will transform with the addition of Giannis Antetokounmpo and, to a lesser extent, Khris Middleton. Initially, Dame may spend the first part of the season finding his groove and adjusting to a more diversified offensive scheme. This transition period may impact his shooting percentages, as he adapts to a different rhythm and shares the ball with elite teammates.
However, as the season progresses, particularly after the All-Star break, Lillard is expected to emerge as the team’s leading scorer. As he becomes more acclimated to the team’s dynamics and develops chemistry with his new co-stars, we anticipate an uptick in his scoring output. Even with a temporary dip, Lillard’s reputation as one of the league’s premier scorers remains intact, and fans can expect his signature clutch performances to shine through as the season unfolds.
6. Trae Young
2022-23 Scoring Average: 26.2 PPG
2023-24 Predicted Scoring Average: 27.5 PPG
Trae Young, known for his electrifying playmaking and scoring ability, had a solid 2022-23 season, averaging 26.2 points per game. As we project into the 2023-24 season, we predict a slight increase in his scoring average to 27.5 PPG. This change is driven by the evolving dynamics of his team and the role he’s expected to play.
With the departure of John Collins, Trae Young is likely to shoulder a bit more of the scoring load in the upcoming season. He’ll need to step up and become an even more prolific scorer to fill the gap left by Collins. This increased scoring responsibility could lead to an uptick in his scoring numbers. While his assists per game might dip below the 10 assists mark due to his elevated scoring role, fans can expect more of the same from Trae in terms of heavy usage and dominance offensively.
5. Jayson Tatum
2022-23 Scoring Average: 30.1 PPG
2023-24 Predicted Scoring Average: 28.6 PPG
Jayson Tatum had an impressive 2022-23 season, showcasing his scoring prowess by averaging 30.1 points per game. However, he has more help now. The Celtics have made notable additions, with the likes of Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday, both highly capable offensive players. Consequently, Tatum is expected to share the ball more and may not need to carry the same offensive burden he did in previous seasons. However, despite the added talent, Tatum remains the best player on the team and is likely to continue as the focal point of the Celtics’ offense.
Tatum’s scoring efficiency and versatility are remarkable, and he is undoubtedly one of the most skilled players in the league. While he may not surpass the 30 PPG mark in the upcoming season, his ability to adapt to the team’s needs and contribute in various facets of the game ensures he will remain a formidable scoring threat, averaging over 28 points per game and continuing to shine as one of the league’s top talents.
4. Donovan Mitchell
2022-23 Scoring Average: 28.3 PPG
2023-24 Predicted Scoring Average: 29.7 PPG
Donovan Mitchell had a strong 2022-23 season, averaging 28.3 points per game. Looking ahead to the 2023-24 season, we anticipate a bump in his scoring average to 29.7 PPG. This projected increase is influenced by Mitchell’s determination to solidify his place among the league’s elite players and his prominent role with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Mitchell’s desire to be recognized alongside players like Devin Booker has been evident in his performances. His astonishing 71-point game in 2023 was a testament to his scoring capabilities and his ambition to stand out. In the upcoming season, he’s poised to further boost his production, demonstrating his ability to take over games and dominate offensively.
As the main man for the Cleveland Cavaliers, Mitchell is expected to be the primary scoring option. With a team that relies on his offensive firepower, he will have ample opportunities to showcase his scoring prowess and potentially surpass the 30 PPG threshold.
3. Devin Booker
2022-23 Scoring Average: 27.8 PPG
2023-24 Predicted Scoring Average: 30.5 PPG
Devin Booker’s predicted surge in scoring is attributed to his undeniable talent and the star-studded company he finds himself in. In a league teeming with great shooting guards, Devin Booker stands out as one of the best. While he will be sharing the ball with Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal, it’s clear that it’s his time to shine. The presence of these superstar teammates will work to his advantage, allowing him to be extremely efficient and providing him with quality scoring opportunities.
As Booker continues to mature as a player, he is poised to reach a career-high scoring level in the 2023-24 season. His offensive prowess, coupled with his ability to adapt and excel alongside elite teammates, positions him as a prime candidate to be one of the league’s top scorers, solidifying his reputation as a premier shooting guard in the NBA. Of course, more than winning a scoring title, Booker needs to look for a chance to win his first championship.
2. Joel Embiid
2022-23 Scoring Average: 33.1 PPG
2023-24 Predicted Scoring Average: 32.8 PPG
Joel Embiid, widely acknowledged as the best offensive center in the game, had a phenomenal 2022-23 season, averaging an impressive 33.1 points per game. Looking forward to the 2023-24 season, we predict a slight decrease in his scoring average to 32.8 PPG.
Embiid’s offensive prowess is evident in his back-to-back scoring titles, and he is likely to continue posting over 30 points per game in the upcoming season. The anticipated departure of James Harden means he may not have as much help in terms of offensive support, which will further emphasize his role as the primary scoring option.
However, while Embiid continues to dominate offensively, there’s one man standing in the way of his quest for a third consecutive scoring title. This player’s extraordinary skills and scoring ability could challenge Embiid’s reign, setting the stage for a thrilling duel at the top of the scoring charts.
1. Luka Doncic
2022-23 Scoring Average: 32.4 PPG
2023-24 Predicted Scoring Average: 33.7 PPG
That man is Luka Doncic. Last season, Luka crossed the 30 PPG threshold for the first time in his career, and there’s every reason to believe he will do it again. Playing alongside Kyrie Irving won’t hinder his offensive prowess; instead, it offers him another dynamic scoring partner to share the court with. Luka is expected to dominate the ball and the scoring sheets, showcasing his extraordinary ability to create scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates.
The Slovenian sensation has yet to win an individual award since his Rookie of the Year honors, and he’s certainly due for a scoring title. Simultaneously, his impressive scoring and all-around contributions make him a strong contender for the MVP award. The 2023-24 season is poised to be a defining chapter in Luka Doncic’s career, where he emerges as not only a scoring sensation but also a genuine candidate for the league’s most prestigious accolades.
