Giannis Antetokounmpo is already an all-time great player and easily one of the greatest power forwards to have played. With a host of accolades, including two MVPs, Defensive Player of the Year, and an NBA title with Finals MVP, Giannis’ legacy is secured as he approaches 31 years old. But following the Milwaukee Bucks‘ victory against the Brooklyn Nets, the Greek Freak made some interesting remarks about how he aims to surpass LeBron James on the all-time scoring list.
- 2026-27 NBA Season
- 2027-28 NBA Season
- 2028-29 NBA Season
- 2029-30 NBA Season
- 2030-31 NBA Season
- 2031-32 NBA Season
- 2032-33 NBA Season
- 2033-34 NBA Season
- 2034-35 NBA Season
- 2035-36 NBA Season
- 2036-37 NBA Season
- 2037-38 NBA Season
- Giannis Antetokounmpo Will Likely Need To Play Until 43 Years Old To Surpass LeBron James… Which Is Extremely Unlikely
He believes he can become the NBA’s all-time leading scorer, and he thinks he can do it in four to five years.
“First of all, we have to talk about who those guys are because I just saw those guys. Talk about Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Wilt Chamberlain, and Kevin Durant. I think it’s the GOATs of the GOATs,” Giannis said. “Just to be in that list with them is incredible… Do I have a lot of room to grow? Yes. And I think getting to the top of the scoring list is not six, seven, or eight years away. I think it’s four, five years away.”
But does Giannis have an actual shot at it? As of now, LeBron has scored 42,250 career points, while Giannis has scored 21,002. If LeBron plays the next 50 games and averages around 16 points per game, he would add about 800 points to his total, bringing his career total to 43,050. If he were to retire after this season, 43,050 would be his official total.
On the other hand, if Giannis were to play 55 more games this season at his current scoring rate of 32 points per game, he would have scored an additional 1,760 points, bringing his total to 22,762. Since Giannis has now played 55 more games, he would need to score an additional 20,289 points to surpass LeBron and be at the top of the leaderboard.
With that being said, we obviously can’t figure that out in one go. So, let’s break it down and analyze Giannis’ scoring potential to figure out how many more seasons he would realistically need to achieve this.
2026-27 NBA Season
Total Games: 70
PPG Average: 34.3
Total Points: 2,401
Giannis opens this stretch with the kind of offensive explosion that would instantly grab the league’s attention. If he ever has a season where everything falls into place, health, rhythm, roster fit, this would be it. A 33-point average over 70 games would be the loudest scoring statement of his career, giving him a massive jolt as he begins chasing LeBron’s mountain.
Running Career Total: 22,762+2,401=25,163
2027-28 NBA Season
Total Games: 72
PPG Average: 33.5
Total Points: 2,412
Giannis had a fantastic year, but the following year had a more typical scoring performance; his scoring average of 33.5 points per game over 72 games still qualifies him as one of the league’s best scorers. Although it was not the year before’s average, Giannis produced a high level of production throughout the season and continued to close the gap on LeBron for the all-time scoring record.
Running Career Total: 25,163+2,412=27,575
2028-29 NBA Season
Total Games: 70
PPG Average: 32.6
Total Points: 2,282
At 34, the scoring dip begins—slight, but noticeable. Giannis remains a problem for every team in the league, mostly because he now understands how to get to his spots without relying solely on athletic force. Thirty per game at this age is still superstar territory, and it keeps him on a reasonable pace.
Running Career Total: 27,575+2,282=29,857
2029-30 NBA Season
Total Games: 69
PPG Average: 30.9
Total Points: 2,132
This is where the grind of the NBA calendar usually starts showing up. Fewer games, a touch less explosiveness, but plenty of experience to compensate. Nearly 30 points per game is elite by any standard, and it pushes him a bit deeper into the climb toward the all-time record.
Running Career Total: 29,857+2,132=31,989
2030-31 NBA Season
Total Games: 65
PPG Average: 28.8
Total Points: 1,872
By 36, very few players are still carrying a major scoring load. Giannis, in this scenario, would be doing just that. A 28.8-point average suggests his footwork, strength, and post efficiency have become his bread and butter. The numbers are still big, but they don’t cut into the gap as quickly as they once did.
Running Career Total: 31,989+1,820=33,861
2031-32 NBA Season
Total Games: 65
PPG Average: 26.0
Total Points: 1,690
Giannis is slowly declining, but his productivity remains, as his game evolves into a power-forward version of Karl Malone in the latter part of his career. He has created production through strength, footwork, and free-throw shooting. He is steadily closing the gap on LeBron James while remaining an elite scorer at the All-NBA level.
Running Career Total: 33,861+1,690=35,551
2032-33 NBA Season
Total Games: 62
PPG Average: 24.5
Total Points: 1,519
As Giannis moves to 38 years old in his career, he continues to average nearly 25 points per game. Statistically, this is an incredible feat for a player in the history of the NBA. Even though the scoring volume of Giannis has diminished, his production is still enough to allow him to work his way closer to LeBron James as the all-time leading scorer. Plus, Giannis’s longevity and conditioning work as the foundation for his continued pursuit of records.
Running Career Total: 35,551+1,519=37,070
2033-34 NBA Season
Total Games: 64
PPG Average: 23.5
Total Points: 1,504
At this stage of the pursuit, every game and every point counts. Giannis is still playing at an elite level, but he is now very selective about his offensive role. Even though it is exceptional for Giannis to average 23.5 points at the age of 39, he is in a prime position to pursue being the all-time leading scorer.
Running Career Total: 37,070+1,504=38,574
2034-35 NBA Season
Total Games: 63
PPG Average: 22.7
Total Points: 1,430
At age 40, Giannis Antetokounmpo can still put up low 20s. He has been but has not been a dominant force like he was in the years prior. In fact, he has been a great player throughout the history of the NBA, but Giannis is out to chase down history using his productive buckets efficiently, one productive bucket at a time. This will mark the final push of his successful career.
Running Career Total: 38,574+1,430=40,004
2035-36 NBA Season
Total Games: 61
PPG Average: 21.0
Total Points: 1,281
Now 41, Giannis would be transitioning fully into a half-court scorer. The explosiveness that once defined his game would be long gone, but his experience and physical strength keep him around 20 a night. It’s an admirable production for his age, but the climb remains steep.
Running Career Total: 40,004+1,281=41,285
2036-37 NBA Season
Total Games: 60
PPG Average: 19.0
Total Points: 1,140
Giannis Antetokounmpo is getting closer than ever. Giannis becomes a poster scorer at the age of 42 based on the angles he can use to take advantage of his experience. While Giannis’ scoring increases below 20 points for the first time since he was 23, he still puts up nearly 1,200 total points as he moves into the final season of his career, as he smells blood in the water.
Running Career Total: 41,285+1,140=42,425
2037-38 NBA Season
Total Games: 58
PPG Average: 18.0
Total Points: 1,044
Giannis will enter his final season knowing what he must do to surpass LeBron James. Giannis is scaling back his role with the Milwaukee Bucks and his minutes to maximize the effectiveness of each of the offensive nights he may have. Giannis still has 1,044 total points this season, allowing him to surpass James and become the all-time leading scorer. What an achievement that would be. But could this actually happen?
Final Career Total: 42,425+1,044=43,469
Giannis Antetokounmpo Will Likely Need To Play Until 43 Years Old To Surpass LeBron James… Which Is Extremely Unlikely
Giannis Antetokounmpo is a phenomenal basketball player, but the likelihood of him passing LeBron James is slim to none. He simply has not developed the three-point jumper that will allow him to be effective once his athletic gifts begin to wane. LeBron was able to capture the all-time scoring list and surpass Kareem Abdul-Jabbar by focusing on three-pointers. The King has attempted at least 5.0 threes per game since the 2017-18 season, even reaching 8.0 attempts in 2021-22.
We don’t see Giannis attempting this many three-pointers, let alone nailing anywhere near the 40% clip James nailed in the 2023-24 season. Giannis is a career 28.6% shooter from three and only nails 69.2% from the stripe, so it will be insanely difficult for him to generate easy points once his explosiveness is no longer there. Giannis might be the only player to play at a superstar level by age 43, and if he does it, he could be the all-time leading scorer.
Unfortunately, we don’t see it happening. If he really wants it, Giannis can attack the top 10 list and try to climb the rankings. We don’t see how he won’t be a candidate to finish in the top five. But breaking LeBron’s record, considering Giannis turns 31 years old in a few days, is extremely unlikely. He is better off trying to win a second championship to solidify his legacy as an all-time great winner rather than a scorer.
