The Phoenix Suns host the Los Angeles Lakers tonight, and this one already has that “here we go again” energy. It’s their third meeting in December, with the Lakers sitting 19-8 (fourth in the West) and the Suns at 15-13 (seventh).
They’ve traded haymakers in this mini-series, but the last one is the reason this matchup feels extra spicy. On December 14, the Lakers won 116-114 in a game that got completely heated late, with Dillon Brooks drilling a huge three, bumping into LeBron James, picking up a second technical, and getting ejected.
Now add the season-level star production, and you can see why this game has real weight. LeBron is averaging 20.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 7.1 assists while shooting 48.0% from the field. Luka Doncic has been a stat-sheet cheat code at 34.1 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 8.8 assists on 45.8% shooting, even though he’s currently sidelined. Austin Reaves has played like a co-star at 27.8 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 6.7 assists on 50.3% from the field.
For the Suns, Devin Booker is at 25.6 points and 6.4 assists per game on 45.7% shooting, and Brooks is putting up 21.7 points a night on 45.6% from the field.
Injury Report
Suns
Jalen Green: Out (right hamstring strain)
Grayson Allen: Doubtful (right knee injury management)
Jordan Goodwin: Available (jaw sprain)
Lakers
Luka Doncic: Out (lower left leg contusion)
Rui Hachimura: Out (right groin soreness)
Gabe Vincent: Out (lumbar back strain)
Austin Reaves: Questionable (left calf strain)
Why The Suns Have The Advantage
The Suns’ biggest edge is that the matchup naturally tilts toward their perimeter bite, especially with the Lakers missing Luka and potentially not getting a fully healthy Reaves. When the Lakers lose ball-handling and late-clock creation, they can get dragged into ugly possessions where they’re relying on tough shot-making instead of flow.
And the Suns love that kind of game right now, because they’ve been leaning into physical, emotional basketball. Brooks isn’t subtle, and that matters in a matchup like this. The last meeting turned into a staring contest late, and you can feel the Suns wanting to make this one personal again, especially at home.
There’s also a very real “production-by-committee” swing for the Suns lately. Collin Gillespie has been a problem for teams since getting a bigger role, and he had a 28-point night against the Lakers earlier this month. That’s the type of random-but-not-random scoring that can flip a game when everyone’s loading up on the headliners.
Team-wise, the Suns can win the possession battle if they keep the Lakers out of the paint and out of transition. They’ve allowed 114.1 opponent points per game this season, which gives them a stable defensive baseline compared to a Lakers group that can get leaky when the game speeds up.
And even offensively, the Suns have lived in the paint more than people think, sitting at 49.1 points in the paint per game. If they keep getting downhill and forcing rotations, the kickouts are going to be there all night.
Bottom line, the Suns have the home setting, the emotional edge, and a roster that’s clearly comfortable turning this into a high-contact, late-game drama show.
Why The Lakers Have The Advantage
The Lakers’ advantage is that they’ve been the cleaner, more consistent team all season. They’re seventh in the league in offensive rating at 118.0, and even when they don’t shoot perfectly, they usually generate decent looks because they can pressure the rim and create free throws.
The other thing is that the Lakers have already shown they can survive the Suns’ chaos. That 116-114 win occurred in a game where everything went sideways, the Suns made a remarkable comeback, and it still ended with the Lakers making just enough winning plays to escape. That matters for confidence, because it tells you the Lakers won’t fold just because the game gets loud.
Even with Luka out, the Lakers still have the best “calm the game down” presence on the floor in LeBron, and they can lean on defense-first lineups to take away easy points. The Lakers also sit at 47.4 points in the paint per game, so they’re not a jump-shot-only group. If they keep attacking the rim and don’t get baited into playing the Suns’ emotional game, they can control the tempo and make the Suns score against a set defense.
One more thing: the Suns have been shaky lately, going 4-6 in their last 10, and a big part of that has been struggling to consistently generate efficient offense without full health. If the Lakers keep the Suns from getting easy transition bursts, the Suns can get stuck hunting tough jumpers.
So the Lakers’ path is pretty straightforward: win the efficiency battle, protect the ball, and don’t let the Suns turn it into a wrestling match that ends with a whistle parade.
Suns vs. Lakers Prediction
This feels like another close one, because these teams clearly bring out the petty in each other. If Reaves plays, I like the Lakers’ ability to generate steadier offense for 48 minutes. If he sits, the Suns’ physical edge and home environment get a lot more dangerous.
I’m taking the Suns in a tight one, mostly because the Lakers are missing too much creation without Luka, and the Suns look completely ready to turn this into another late-game street fight.
Prediction: Suns 118, Lakers 113
